Interest Rate Cuts Will Prompt Immediate Interbank Lending Rates.
The central bank's interest rate cuts have little impact on SMEs and private lending. From the P2P website Wen business loan, the net interest rate before and after November 21st has basically not changed. There are 1 or 2 months annualized interest rate for mortgage loans, 15%, 3 months for 16.8%, 6 months for 17.8%. Before July 31st, the annualized interest rate for real estate mortgage loans was 18% in half a year, 20% in August and 17.8% in September 11th.
The above interest rates basically reflect the situation of private interest rates. This year, the central bank has little influence on private capital, whether it is to release convenient loans, facilitate lending in the medium term or reduce interest rates. Interbank lending rates and bond repo rates are directly affected.
In its three quarter monetary policy report, the central bank said that in September this year, it created a medium-term loan facility (MLF). In September and October, the central bank launched a total of 769 billion 500 million basic currencies to the banking system through the tool. These two dates have no effect on the interest rate of private lending, and how to market interest rates or how to go.
The interbank lending rate has a short-term decline, but it will not play a long-term role.
The central bank's conventional lending facilities can not keep bank lending rates down for a long time. On the one hand, banks have been more radical and need to digest bad debts; on the other hand, bank deposits are losing, and short-term loans are borrowed from the central bank. PSL, SLF, MLF, the scale is not small, with a limit of 3 months, the interest rate is 3.5%, where can commercial banks lend money for a long period of time, where can they provide low interest loans? At present, commercial banks have 5.6% month lending benchmark interest rates, 5.6% months from the central bank to lend money to 6 months, the spreads are only 2.1 percentage points, and there is a time limit risk. If 3 months later, the central bank will not grant regular loans to facilitate the operation of the loans, the lending rate is below 5%, and commercial banks will not make money. Why do commercial banks need to work Lei Feng?
After the central bank cut interest rates, it has no effect on the interest rate of private lending, and has an immediate effect on reducing interbank lending rates. In November 20th, the interbank overnight lending rate in Shanghai was 2.428, down to 2.3042 in November 21st; in November 20th, the 1 month interbank lending rate was 3.809, and November 21st decreased to 3.6739; November 20th, the 3 month interbank offered rate 4.5054, and November 21st fell to 3.79 in November 21st. Thanks to the central bank, cash strapped commercial banks can overcome the urgent need.
The interest rate cut is very good for large loan households. According to the central bank's "three quarter financial institutions lending report" released in October 27th, at the end of the three quarter, the balance of the medium and long-term loans of the financial institutions' foreign currency enterprises and other departments was 31 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an increase of 11.2% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than the end of last quarter, and 2 trillion and 880 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 744 billion 900 million yuan compared with the previous year. Interest rate cuts in November 21st Financial institution The benchmark lending rate for one year will be reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%. With a one-year loan interest rate, the medium and long-term loan interest rate of enterprises can be saved by 124 billion yuan.
Cut interest rates. Bank Whether the loan is willing or not, whether the actual loan interest rate is down depends entirely on the market. Whether short-term loans, medium - and long-term loans or sub - use loans are falling. The balance of fixed assets loans of all financial institutions, foreign currency enterprises and other departments was 25 trillion and 680 billion yuan, an increase of 12.3% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than the end of last quarter, and the balance of operating loans was 27 trillion and 20 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3.4 percentage points lower than the end of last quarter. The industry is clear that in the case of tight funds, even if nominal interest rates fall, real interest rates will be recovered through service charges, loans and other deposits.
To solve Financing difficulties There is no other way to extend the real base money on a large scale, so the stock and real estate market will increase and infrastructure investment will further accelerate. Or establish an efficient risk screening system, such as Taobao small and micro loan. Last May 20th, Ali officials revealed that in May 18th, the "small and micro credit day" set by Ali in May 18th, 1.8 000 Taobao small sellers shared 300 million yuan Taobao credit loan of Ali small micro credit, with an average loan of 16 thousand yuan per seller, and 80% of the small sellers who were granted loans were under two drilling lines. Efficiency is high, interest rate is not low, because the loan cycle is short, small sellers can still bear.
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