RMB Exchange Rate Jumped For Two Reasons, Experts Believe That The Value Of The Currency Continues To Be Strong.

According to the latest data released by the China foreign exchange trading center authorized by the people's Bank of China, the RMB exchange rate between the interbank foreign exchange market yesterday was RMB 1 yuan to RMB 6.1282 yuan, 1 euro to 7.5547 yuan, 100 yen to RMB 5.0545 yuan, and RMB's rise to the central parity of the world's major currencies. In addition, compared with last Friday, the yuan jumped 91 basis points against the US dollar to a 9 month high.

"There are two main reasons for this. First, the trade surplus announced on the 8 day is over expected, and the passive growth has reached a record high of 54 billion 470 million dollars. The sentiment of foreign exchange investors has been greatly boosted, thus pushing the spot exchange rate to strengthen. Two, in order to avoid a continuous divergence between the central bank's central parity and the spot exchange rate, the central bank also raised the RMB's middle parity with the US dollar on the 8 day, thus promoting the Chr (34) trade surplus to increase substantially, and the market and official exchange rate to synchronize with the strength of Chr (34) in the short term. Chen Hufei, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar) asset management center, pointed out yesterday in an interview with the Securities Daily reporters.

The latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that the export volume in dollar terms increased by 4.7% in November compared with the same period last year, and imports fell by 6.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market expectations and at the lowest level since March this year. The trade surplus of that month was 54 billion 470 million US dollars, a record high, an increase of 61.4% over the same period last year.

In response, Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Daily reporters that the main reason for the drop in exports was the high base number in the same period last year, and the export did not fall from the point of view of the ring ratio. The main reason for the fall in imports is the price effect of commodities and crude oil falling, and of course the total economy. demand Not strong factors. RMB depreciation and trade expansion are the future exports. Supporting factors Weak aggregate demand and commodities. Price The decline will continue to improve the terms of trade and the trade surplus will remain high.

It is worth noting that since the first quarter of this year, the yuan has broken the expectation of unilateral appreciation, and since the central bank announced the asymmetrical interest rate reduction in November 21st, the expectation of RMB depreciation has become more intense. According to the latest Wind data, since November 21st, the spot exchange rate of RMB has dropped from 6.1249 to 478 basis points or 0.78% as of December 8th.

Earlier, a research report by China Merchants Bank showed that after the theoretical reduction of interest rates, there was a downward pressure on the RMB. However, China's "managed floating exchange rate system" will not allow such a situation to happen. The central bank will protect the exchange rate from depreciation, and the situation of interest rate and exchange rate will not appear. The RMB will remain strong in general.

In response to the trend of the RMB exchange rate, Chen Hufei said that since September, the surplus of foreign trade continued to increase, while the balance between the sales and sale of banks on behalf of clients continued to expand for several months. In October, there was a deficit of 11 billion 400 million US dollars in terms of capital and finance.