Wang Liang: US Dollar Rising Strongly, Non US Low Correction

Us non farm payrolls increased by 321 thousand in November, the largest increase in January 2012, with an expected increase of 230 thousand people, with an increase of 214 thousand in the previous year. The unemployment rate in the United States is 5.8% in November. Following the announcement of the expected figures, the US dollar jumped across the board. The US ICE index reached a new high of 89.34 since March 2009. The US dollar / yen hit a 7 year high of 121.37, and the Australian dollar / dollar reached a new low of 0.8319 since July 2010, and the euro / dollar fell to 1.2300 again. Spot gold fell rapidly, hitting a minimum of $1192.81 / ounce, spot silver dropping $16.21 / ounce, and the Dow Jones index and the S & P 500 index closed at a record high on Friday, rising seventh weeks in a row.

According to a study by a senior Federal Reserve economist, the best way to change short-term interest rates in the United States should be to immediately raise interest rates, and to complete the whole process of raising interest rates. This path is simulated by the "best control" interest rate model developed in November last year, and Yellen has attached great importance to this model.

The ECB interest rate resolution and Draghi's speech were disappointing. Although the market did not expect euro bank to announce interest rate cuts or direct launch of the European version of QE at this meeting, Delaki failed to give further clues to the doves and dissatisfied the market.

In Japan, there is no obvious news of heavy fundamentals this week. But this does not prevent the continuation of the US dollar / yen upward market and the preference of traders for this currency pair. Kinoshita, chief analyst at Nomura in Japan, said it expects the US dollar / yen to rise to near 125 by the end of 2014, and that the Bank of Japan will further expand the stimulus scale in 2015, when the exchange rate will go up further. No matter from Japan The domestic economic and political factors, or from the US monetary policy environment, imply that the US dollar / yen will rise further.

　　 Euro / dollar Analysis

The euro fell to 1.2300 against the US dollar. The trend is still weak. The market outlook is expected to continue to fall. The short-term price correction is narrowing around 1.2280. After 1.2300 breakthroughs, short-term prices are facing a rebound trend, with 1.2335 above the top, and short selling at the top of the operation, with 1.2240 and 1.2200 below the target.

　　 GBP / USD Analysis

On the daily chart, the price declines remain intact, the K-line is below the EMA, and the EMA is arranged in a short order, indicating that the market outlook is expected to further decline. On the 30 minute chart, MACD appears under the 0 axis "golden fork". Within days, it is vigilant for the price to rebound, and the top is concerned about 1.5600. The operation can be short or close at 1.5550.

　 US dollar / yen analysis

The US dollar rose to 121.80 against the yen, a 7 year high. At present, prices are still in the upward trend, but the short-term prices are oscillating in the high 121.30--121.80 range. MACD on the 30 minute chart is at high "dead ends", indicating that there are signs of correction in the short term. First, we should wait for the support near 121.30. If the price falls below the short-term line, it will fall back. After falling to the low level, we can enter the market more closely and pay more attention to the 122 pass.

　　 Analysis of Australian dollar / US dollar

On the daily chart, MACD continued downward under the 0 axis, and the kinetic energy column continued to expand, indicating that the Australian dollar had a strong downward trend against the US dollar. At present, the price dropped to near 0.8300, and there was a correction in the short term. The price of the course was waiting for the price to rebound to near 0.8340 or to hang up at 0.8300.

　　 US dollar / Canadian dollar analysis

The upward trend is complete, and the price has a wide range of shocks above 1.1200. At present, the price is higher than 1.1470 near the concussion zone, the short term rise kinetic energy is weakened, the trend is showing signs of decline, the underlying support is concerned about 1.1400, and the upper 1.1470 breakthrough will further open up the empty space.

　 USD / CHF analysis

The market expects that the Swiss central bank is expected to maintain the Swiss Franc exchange rate ceiling at least until 2016, and is now more likely to use the negative interest rate to guard the exchange rate limit than in September. The US dollar maintained its upward trend against the Swiss franc, but the intensity was weak. The price was at a high level. The underlying concern was 0.9665 and 0.9600, the resistance at the top was 0.9800, the position of the current price was recommended to wait and see, the operation of the top price dropped to the low level or more after the 0.9800 break. A kind of