Slowdown In Foreign Trade Will Become A New Normal.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in December 8th, the total value of China's imports and exports in November was 2 trillion and 270 billion yuan, down 0.3% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; imports of 970 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%; trade surplus of 334 billion 800 million yuan, an expansion of 60.5%.

Li Jian, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in November, the import and export double were lower than expected. On the one hand, the export market was affected by the continued weakness of the external market; on the other hand, the effective demand of the domestic economy was still insufficient, and the continuous low commodity prices had greatly affected the import growth rate, making the foreign trade data overall not ideal.

According to statistics, the import volume of major commodities increased and the average import price fell generally in imported commodities.

International commodity prices are low, leading to an expanding trade surplus.

In November, China's trade surplus was 334 billion 800 million yuan, an expansion of 60.5%, which is the third time this year, it has set a new high in the single month.

Market analysts say such a high trade surplus will continue for several months in the future.

Although the current foreign trade situation is not as good as expected, there have also been some positive changes.

From the perspective of trade structure, in the first 11 months, China's general trade import and export volume was 12 trillion and 910 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%; the import and export of processing trade reached 7 trillion and 800 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%, and the general trade and processing trade import and export achieved synchronous growth.

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Look, in the first 11 months, our country is right.

The import and export of the 3 largest trading partners of the United States and ASEAN still maintained a relatively fast growth rate of 8.9%, 5.2% and 7.1% respectively, while the bilateral trade growth between the mainland and Hongkong decreased by 8.9%.

From the perspective of specific commodities, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China in the first 11 months was 7 trillion and 250 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6%, accounting for 55.8% of the total value of exports.

Clothing, textiles, footwear and other 7 categories of labor-intensive products total exports of 2 trillion and 710 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4%, accounting for 20.9% of the total value of exports.

Li Jian said that with China's macroeconomic restructuring and structural adjustment, foreign trade will present a "new normal" of scale growth and slower growth. In the short term, China's foreign trade fundamentals are hard to fundamentally change, which means that in the coming period, China's import and export growth will remain relatively low.

Several recent developments in this judgement were released in the near future.

All of them are reflected.

Affected by the decline in output and new export orders index, the manufacturing industry PMI and HSBC manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of statistics in November hit a 8 month and a half year low respectively, indicating that the expansion of manufacturing industry has slowed down further, and the downward pressure on the economy remains great.

The latest China foreign trade pilot index released by the General Administration of Customs has also declined for two consecutive months. Its export manager index, new export order index and export manager confidence index have declined to varying degrees.

Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman of the General Administration of customs, said that the change of the data indicates that China's export growth is not optimistic at the end of this year and early next year.

Experts say that from the current data, it is impossible to achieve 7.5% of the target of foreign trade growth this year.

However, with the implementation of a series of steady growth policies to promote foreign trade, China's foreign trade will enter a relatively stable growth period when the external environment is generally stable.