Stock Market Absorbs Gold And Fixed Income Market Intensifies

If the stock market continues to improve, the future fixed income market will continue to bear pressure, lack of funds to promote, bond market or continue to weak shocks market, and the fixed rate of return trust fund raising scale or further decline, giving way to securities investment trust.

　　 Bond market:

Two worries remain in the short term

In November, after the "stock debt double bull" market was short-lived, with the confidence of investors in the stock market further strengthened, its stock trading seesaw effect began to appear at the same time, and the bond market was in a difficult adjustment.

As of yesterday's closing, CICC's five year treasury bond futures contract TF1503 closed at 95.546 yuan, down 0.116 yuan, or 0.12%, compared with the previous trading day, which is TF1503's four consecutive trading day. At the same time, the remaining 9.74 years of CDB fixed interest bonds "14 countries open 22" prices continue to explore, as at 15:30 yesterday, "14 countries to open 22" weighted average yield of 4.2033%, compared with the past month 3.863% has been up to 34.04 basis points (BP).

The industry believes that the main selling point in the recent spot market is brokers, funds and financial accounts, reflecting the recent weakness of the bond market, which is mainly influenced by the stock market's money making effect. On the other hand, by the end of the year, commercial banks will have more demand for capital and less power to configure bonds. Therefore, if the stock market is booming in the short term, the seesaw effect of stock debt will be highlighted.

Deng Haiqing, an analyst at CITIC Securities, pointed out that the stock market rose by 9.35% per week, resulting in a strong squeeze on the bond market. The stock debt seesaw incident triggered a decrease in the volume of the bond market, and the yield rose to a full height. In addition, he believes that there are two hidden worries in the short-term bond market: profit making at the end of the year has led to a decline in demand for bond allocation, and institutions have increased concerns about leverage.

Xingyi futures fixed income analyst Su Minxing also told reporters that before the end of the year, the bond market may be adjusted mainly.

　　 Market outlook:

Do not rule out the possibility of further adjustment.

However, the industry believes that in the medium to long term, the capital market is loose and the macro fundamentals are weak, making the bond market still have a bull market base. Su Minxing pointed out that the possibility of further downgrading of the bond market is not ruled out in the short term, but the space should be limited.

The traditional stock debt seesaw effect is mainly based on the fundamentals, while the current stock debt seesaw is the stock market's earning effect to attract bond market funds. If so, this effect may not last for a long time. Once the stock market pullbacks, some of the funds may return to the low bond market.

　　 Deng Hai Qing Also believe that in the medium to long term, Stock debt The foundation of double bull is still there, but the rotational effect of stocks and bonds will become more prominent. In the short term, the basis for the upward interest rate of interest rate debt yields is not available, but intervention in the bond market needs to wait for the central bank's further easing policy, which may include the increase in MLF sequels, the repo rate reduction and the drop in accuracy. Before the emergence of the certainty signal, the bond market does not rule out the possibility of further adjustment.

　　 Market outlook:

　　 Financing trust Hard to reproduce the myth of high growth

Analysts believe that the central bank's interest rate cuts and the bull market generally take the bull trust as a whole. As the weak economic cycle and strong market competition impact on the trust industry, the attraction of the traditional fixed income trust will decline, forcing the trust company to actively manage the transformation.

A trust company has pointed out that the performance of equity and equity products has diverted trust funds to a certain extent. But at present, the negative effect is not as obvious as the bond market, because before the rigid payment breaks, the trust still has advantages over other general fixed income products. But the risk of future macroeconomic fundamentals will increase, and traditional financing trusts will hardly reproduce the myth of high growth in the past few years.

Future trust will be more involved in securities products, such as the issuance of sunshine private equity products, increase stocks and quantify hedge business, and do more structured capital preservation, unstructured products and so on.

Shenyang Wanguo analyst Sun Ting also pointed out that the high growth of the trust industry has been mainly attributed to the promotion of the cooperation between bank and credit, the development of trust and trust cooperation under the financial policy, and the financing demand under the tight monetary environment.

The trust industry's super high growth rate has been unable to maintain due to the competition of other capital management agencies, rigid payment problems, severe external economic environment, and industry regulation. The growth of trust assets in the future will significantly slow down, and with the expiration of a large number of real estate and platform projects, the scale of trust assets may decline.