Continuation Of The Decline In Early Trading At The End Of The Year Sing "Sad Tune"

According to Bloomberg survey, China's official purchasing managers index (PMI) in December showed that manufacturing industry stopped growing for the first time in more than two years. The date of publication is January 1st.

Another survey showed that HSBC's PMI in China's manufacturing industry had shrunk for the first time since May. The data will be released in December 31st.

The Central Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut interest rates in November this year, the first time in two years.

Lin Qiaoji, CO head of the Ministry of agriculture and international research, said: "interest rate cuts have raised concerns about China's economy and weakened confidence in the renminbi. Investors are more cautious because economic data are not showing signs of recovery.

The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar dropped 0.12% to 6.2290 in early trading, and three to 0.51%. Today's early market decline was once 0.23%, at 6.2362 yuan, the weakest since June of this year.

The yuan has fallen 2.8% against the dollar this year, or the first decline since 2009.

The offshore renminbi market in Hongkong fell by 0.05% against the US dollar, which fell 0.09% to 6.3685 in 6.2370.12 months, less than 2.2% in the offshore renminbi.

　　 China's central bank On Tuesday, the central parity of the renminbi was lowered by 0.03% to 6.1224. RMB on shore is lower than the middle price by 1.7%, which is within the floating range of 2%.

Wang Yong, Professor of the Zhengzhou Training Institute of the people's Bank of China, wrote in the Shanghai Securities Journal on Tuesday that the focus of the future RMB exchange rate reform will be the formation mechanism of the middle price, which will further expand the participants in the interbank foreign exchange market and enrich the trading varieties in the foreign exchange market.

Wang Yong predicts RMB exchange rate The range of fluctuation will be in the range of 6 to 6.3.

Morgan, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase & Co, said in 2015 that the RMB will face the expansion of China's current account surplus and the appreciation of the US dollar against other currencies in 2015, and the RMB will fluctuate against the US dollar in the 6.1-6.3 dollar range.

　　 Zhu Haibin It is pointed out that China's current account surplus is 3.2% for gross domestic product (GDP) this year and 3.6% for next year. The divergence of monetary policy among the major developed economies will drive the US dollar to appreciate the main currencies.

Zhu Haibin predicts that the effective exchange rate of the renminbi will appreciate sharply, increasing the pressure of domestic manufacturers.

The analyst said that China would at least cut interest rates one time (probably in the first quarter) and the two reduction of 50 basis points (probably in the first and second quarters).

China's safe Tuesday issued a notice to cancel the policy of linking banks' foreign currency settlement to foreign exchange loan to deposit ratio.