Low Growth In Foreign Trade Highlights Opportunities For Structural Adjustment

In 2014, China's GDP growth slowed down, and the pace of foreign trade slowed down more obviously.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs in January 13th this year, the total value of China's imports and exports increased by 3.4% year-on-year in 2014. This is the third consecutive year that foreign trade growth has not reached the established target.

The industry is expected to slow down the growth of the "new normal" under the structural adjustment will release new opportunities for foreign trade growth.

In recent years, China's foreign trade situation is very grim, and its foreign trade objectives have not been completed for 3 consecutive years. In 2012, the growth rate of foreign trade and import and export in the whole year was only 6.2%, far below the 10% target set at the beginning of that year. In 2013, China's import and export grew by 7.6% over the same period last year, though 1.4 percentage points higher than that in 2012, but still lower than the target of 8% growth in the whole year. The target of foreign trade growth in 2014 is about 7.5%, but the final data show that this growth rate is only 3.4%.

Foreign trade is one of the three carriages driving China's economy. The "new normal" of China's economy has been clearly reflected in foreign trade.

Many analysts have judged that the growth rate of foreign trade digits in the future will become normal as affected by the slow recovery of the world economy, the weakening of comparative advantage of low cost, the rapid decline of commodity prices in the international market and geopolitics.

From the international environment, the US economy has been "slow down" momentum, but the European economy continues to slump, the BRICs economy is also not optimistic.

As far as the comprehensive export competitiveness of enterprises is concerned, China's economy is still at a low level in the global value chain.

Lu Dong, deputy general manager of CITIC insurance Shanghai branch, said that traditional export products have thin profits, many trade barriers and uncertainty.

At the same time, China's past cost advantages in the foreign trade industry are being gradually eroded.

It is noteworthy that although China's foreign trade data has been declining for three consecutive years, progress has been made in improving quality, efficiency and structure.

In the first three quarters of 2014, the market share of China's export products in the European Union, the United States and Japan was 17.5%, 19.4% and 21.8%, respectively, rising by 1.1, 0.4 and 0.4 percentage points respectively.

Deng Yujun, a professor at the school of economics and management, South China Normal University, said that China's foreign trade is changing from the "low cost" advantage to the comprehensive advantages of the industrial chain, talent gathering and huge market.

In terms of structural optimization, the proportion of general trade in China increased by 1 percentage points over the same period in 2014, indicating that the mode of trade is more reasonable.

The proportion of bilateral trade in emerging markets, such as ASEAN, Africa, Russia and India, has risen by 0.8 percentage points over the same period, and the market diversification has made positive progress.

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"At the end of the sale, cross-border e-commerce with annual growth of over 30% is undoubtedly becoming a new growth point for China's foreign trade. The Ministry of Commerce predicts that in 2016, the import and export volume of China's cross-border e-commerce will increase to 6 trillion and 500 billion yuan, with an annual growth rate exceeding 30%.

In addition, the strategic concept of "one belt and one road" has opened a new window of opportunity for the complementary and open development of the complementary advantages of the countries along the line.

The import and export of China and the "one belt and one road" country or region in 2014

The value is close to 7 trillion yuan, an increase of 7%, accounting for 1/4 of China's foreign trade import and export value in the same period.

2015 is still a painful period for China's economic pformation and structural adjustment.

Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, said at a national conference on business affairs that China has lowered its growth target of foreign trade to 6% in 2015.

Judging from last December, the trade surplus will continue to run at a high level. Will the future "stabilize exports" through the depreciation of the renminbi? Most of the experts interviewed believe that the renminbi will not depreciate sharply if domestic economic growth slows down and the US dollar appreciates strongly.

According to a report released by Royal Bank of Scotland, the renminbi will remain stable against the US dollar in the first quarter of this year and will rise slightly in the second half.

By the end of this year, the yuan will probably rise to 6.1 against the US dollar.

Xiao Feng, deputy general manager of Datong, a foreign trade service platform, suggested that foreign trade enterprises should continue to enhance the level of market differentiation competition and increase the added value of export products; secondly, we should make use of new formats such as cross-border e-commerce, comprehensive foreign trade services, increase independent orders, independent brands and reduce circulation costs through service outsourcing, accumulate commercial credit and share service dividends; besides, China also needs to adjust relevant policies, encourage imports, enhance domestic consumption, improve trade balance and reduce trade frictions.

According to the market, Lin Zhiying, vice president of Hongkong Lifeng development (China) Co., Ltd. predicts that the North American market will continue to recover steadily. Greece and Russia are uncertain factors in Europe. The ASEAN market performance is better than last year.

In addition, with the promotion of the "one belt and one way" construction and the signing of more FTA agreements, it will open up new international market space for our country.