QE Foreign Capital Flows Into A Shares: Blue Chips Or Up 15%

On Thursday, the European central bank governor Delagi announced that from March this year, he would buy eurozone member states' treasury bonds and institutional bonds at a rate of 60 billion euros per month. If necessary, inflation would rise to 2%.

This means that the European Central Bank has launched more than a trillion euros of comprehensive QE.

As a result, global gold prices and oil prices responded quickly to global stock markets, and commodities and capital markets rebounded.

What is the impact of future QE on our daily life? We will analyze it one by one.

Influence one

Tourism in Europe will be cheaper

QE's impact on the euro area.

It may still be declining.

Under the austerity of European countries and the deleveraging of private sector, the policy of "not enough and more water" can hardly change the declining trend of the entity.

The depreciation of the euro is good for the US dollar.

In the future, the dollar may be the strongest currency in the world, stronger than other currencies.

At present, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will further ease the easing of the euro and yen exchange rate, coupled with the relatively strong fundamentals of the US economy and the weakening of the Fed's easing efforts, and the US dollar outlook will be "more beautiful".

In the future, although the yuan has depreciated pressure against the US dollar, it will remain strong against the euro and other currencies.

Guan Qing you, director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the RMB exchange rate has devaluation pressure against the US dollar, but under the intervention of the central bank, the depreciation rate will not be too large, which is also to prevent capital flight.

The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuates in general, but because the RMB is still pegged to the US dollar, the exchange rate of RMB against the euro and other currencies will still show appreciation trend.

To sum up, the euro will continue to fall, bringing good benefits for Chinese citizens to travel to Europe and study abroad.

Travel agency staff told reporters that the depreciation of the euro has reduced the cost of domestic tourists to Europe to a certain extent, especially in eating and lodging.

In addition, the biggest cost of outbound travel is air fare. At present, global oil prices are falling, and the overall quotation of European lines may decline in the future.

Influence two

Aunt is going to copy the bottom again.

After the release of Euro QE news, international gold prices continued to rebound.

Recently, a lot of media reported that "China's aunt" has begun to try to catch the gold.

But experts believe that the gold rally is highly limited.

"From the perspective of asset allocation of large categories, the long term downward trend of gold and other commodities has been established.

Tian Hanqing, deputy general manager of Hua Tai Bai Rui, pointed out that the impact of the European version of QE on global commodities is short-term.

QE good financial attributes and risk aversion of strong commodities, such as gold and silver.

But taking into account the decline in oil prices, the downturn in demand leading to global deflation, the appreciation of the dollar, and volatility is difficult to rebound to 2008 and 2012 and other factors, gold will not rise too high this round.

QE will not change the bear market direction of production commodities.

Influence three

Inflow of foreign capital is favorable.

As mentioned earlier, under the euro version QE, the renminbi is expected to become a safe haven for global capital.

Under the background of RMB internationalization, the Central Bank of China intends to maintain RMB stability, resulting in a net inflow of capital.

In 2013, capital outflows in emerging market countries were affected by the withdrawal of us QE, but capital flows into China increased.

Foreign capital flows into a country for a long time, which is beneficial to the capital market of the country.

Guotai Junan macro Ren Zeping believes that the European version QE overall good A shares, a new round of bull market is characterized by leveraged pactions, a sharp rise and fall.

Under such circumstances, the inflow of foreign capital will further increase the volatility of the A share market, and the main theme of the A share bull market will remain unchanged.

Guo Hai Franklin also said that despite the previous market turmoil, the long-term trend of China's stock market is expected to be good. The blue chips with high dividends and low price earnings ratio are the stocks preferred by foreign institutions.

From the perspective of valuation restoration, blue chips expect at least 15% more room for growth.