Chen Shi: At Least More Than 10000 Points In Daniel City.

This week, the stock market fell for four days, and the weekly K line received a 4.22% decline in the mid line. This is the first time such a big weekly decline has occurred since July last year.

With so many unfavorable situations, it is indeed necessary to re-examine the medium term trend of the broader market.

The first question is whether the bull market is still there? Recently, the stock market has not performed well. Some people immediately said that the bull market was over, or even that it was a rebound.

In this regard, we believe that the bull market was launched under the background of the end of the 7 year bear market. It must be a bull market that has lasted for several years, and will break through the high point of the last bull market by 6124 points, and the future high point will be at least more than ten thousand points.

The core logic of the bull market is the pformation and reform of China's economy. At present, there has been no change, and the success of the pformation and reform will definitely lead to a full recovery of China's economy.

Develop in depth.

In this regard, we have always had good expectations.

From the running time and the rising point, the main board bull market has only been running for 7 months. The Shanghai Composite Index has only 3400 points on the index. The index is at the waist of the last bull market and the low bull market in the future.

Daniu city also has a big adjustment, there are two waves and four wave adjustment.

When the market index has risen 70%, it will have a basis in the adjustment stage.

For the first high point of the bull market, we put forward that the Shanghai stock index must break through 3478 points to truly confirm the big bull market in technology and reach the 3500-3700 point line, thus running the first wave of the bull market.

Therefore, for the recent market in the vicinity of 3400 shocks, we have always considered that a rush ahead of the momentum.

This week, volume continued to decline, the market continued to decline, the index fell below the 30 day moving average, leading to poor technological trend.

If the market continues to fall, the head of the market may seem to be formed.

As we said earlier, the market is indeed losing more.

Fundamentally speaking, the biggest influence factor comes from the worry that management is too fast for the stock market to rise. Checking the margin trading and preventing bank capital from flowing into the stock market and increasing the issuance of new shares all reflect the consistent thinking of management. On the one hand, they want the stock market to go up, but they are afraid of accidents.

Therefore, when the stock market rises too fast, it must be regulated.

if

To continue to increase the intensity of the surface, it may lead to the premature rise of the wave again and the early adjustment.

Although the market has its own law of operation, it mainly refers to the general trend.

At the partial and certain stages, external forces can cause interference.

The collapse of the market last Monday was due to penalties for margin trading. Otherwise, the market has probably exceeded 3478 points so far.

This is also the essence of China's stock market. The policy market has remained unchanged. We must always pay attention to it.

If the market continues to fall next week, the head may be formed, but we do not think it is terrible either.

Since the bull market is recommended in a structural way, the adjustment will also show structural adjustment, and the rate of decline will not be too great.

First is

This is the mainstream of this round of market leading plate.

Among them, the brokerage stocks have actually been adjusted for a month.

As for bank stocks, the market has been adjusting recently, the P / E ratio is several times, and the valuation repair is far from being in place.

Financial equity is the largest market, and its limited space of decline determines that the two wave adjustment of the market will eventually be completed in the form of time in exchange for space. The performance of the index will be the collation of the boxes for several months.

In fact, the biggest risk comes from the non blue chips in the market.

When the registration system is developing, overvalued non blue chips will face great pressure. This is the most important thing this year.

Therefore, in the next possible adjustment, as long as the positions are properly adjusted, the blue chips that underestimate the value are expected to spend the adjustment period at a lower cost.