Foreign Exchange: Euro Dollar Weakness

Waiting for the big data from Europe and America. On Friday (January 30th), the euro was lower in the US dollar against the US dollar and is now trading at 1.1330. Despite the overnight storm in the precious metals market, foreign exchange market On the other hand, the G3 currency looks calm. The euro rose slightly above the 1.13 mark yesterday. The two sides are once more cautious after the Fed's resolution. Today, euro zone CPI and us GDP data will be released.

The euro area will announce the January CPI annual rate data at 18:00 today in Beijing. As the European central bank starts a new stimulus package, traders will turn their focus. inflation expectations Index. At present, market expectations for the data are generally poor, and the annual rate is likely to further decline to 0.5%. Bloomberg economist Niraj Shah, Maxime Sbaihi and David Powell said that the euro zone CPI data released in January 30th will show that the euro zone has further slipped into deflation, thereby highlighting the challenges facing the European Central Bank.

If today is expected Eurozone The poor performance of CPI data is likely to further bring downward pressure on the euro. Conversely, if it can improve, though it is difficult to form a great boost to the euro, it may help temporarily buy some support.

In addition to CPI in the euro area, there are also heavy data released in the US. The US Department of Commerce will announce the actual data of the first quarter of the fourth quarter of the US in the current quarter of GDP in Beijing at 21:30 today. After the fastest growth in the past 11 years, can the last "crystal ball" of the US economy shine again in 2014? The foreign media survey shows that 3% is the most likely growth rate.

Some analysts say that since the United States has recently been seen as the Savior of global growth, if the prospect is disappointing, the consequences may be serious. But unlike last year, the polar vortex will not make people unable to go out. If the US GDP is expected to recover more than 3% of its readings, it will be enough to support the US dollar being in a leading position for the time being.

On the technical side, the euro dollar chart shows that the exchange rate is currently in a convergent triangular arrangement area, and the 200 hour average is still the most critical resistance to the upward movement of the exchange rate. In terms of technical indicators, the average line system is leveling horizontally, and the mainline and signal lines of MACD (12, 26, 9) are running upwards. The intra day exchange rate is likely to further test the 200 hour moving average. However, as long as there is no breakthrough, the overall weakness pattern will not change much.