Polyester Staple Market: Improved Turnover

Overnight crude oil and PX rise and so on, PTA futures and MEG electronic disk gains are better. Today, the short and short market atmosphere has been warmer. Manufacturers are willing to sell at low prices. The price of goods at low prices decreases in the afternoon. The mainstream quotation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market has risen to 6950-7150 yuan / ton.

The impact of rising oil prices on Hebei and Shandong markets

The enquiry atmosphere is good, and the stock market will be stocked up before the lower reaches of the festival, and the price will be lifted up. The 1.4 direct spinning polyester and short mainstream newspapers will be sent to 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and businesses will sell at low prices.

The market is mainly short, short and stable. The mainstream of 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market reports 6950-7050 yuan / ton short delivery, and the downstream market mentality is cautious. The overall turnover atmosphere is not as good as that of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and northern markets.

Hesitation.

Today, there has been an improvement in the turnover rate. The production and sales of polyester factories are generally more than 100%, and the mainstream production and sales are 150-250%.

Shandong Changyi market trading atmosphere is light, downstream holiday increases, just need to reduce.

Pure polyester yarn prices are stable, the goods are sparse, 32S mainstream newspaper 11600-11700 yuan / ton.

Oil prices rose for two consecutive days. The overall mood of the polyester market has changed, and the number of stockings in the downstream market has increased, but small and medium-sized ones are the main ones.

Some polyester and short manufacturers are in a negative stock state. It is expected that there will be little room for short quotation in the short term.

Related links:

Looking back at the trend of PTA2014, PTA production enterprises limited production and insured prices directly created a rapid rebound from May to August.

However, with the aggravation of overcapacity of PTA, the effect of PTA production enterprises on limiting production and insurance prices is greatly reduced.

In the four quarter of 2014, there was a news that PTA manufacturers had limited production and insured prices. Although PTA futures had a rebound in early November and mid November, the resilience and duration were significantly weaker than those from May to August.

Statistics show that as of the end of 2014, China's PTA production capacity was about 43 million 400 thousand tons, an increase of 10 million 200 thousand tons compared with 2013, an increase of 30.7%.

The expansion of PTA industry capacity will end in 2015. It is estimated that the new capacity of 8 million 150 thousand tons will increase by 18.8% in 2015, and the total capacity of the PTA will reach the peak of 51 million 550 thousand tons.

With the increase of production capacity, domestic PTA factory operation rate has dropped sharply, and the load of PTA plant in 2014 is only 68%.

Combined with new capacity growth and demand growth, it is estimated that the PTA plant load will drop to 62% in 2015.

This means that the price limit of PTA production enterprises will further weaken in the future.

Crude oil prices of raw materials PX and its upstream source have dropped sharply in recent years, making PTA production cost move down.

It is worth mentioning that, with the continuous production of PX capacity, the supply and demand of PX market has gradually shifted from the previous tension to easing. This is also one of the main reasons for the continuation of the 2013 PX price weakness in 2014.

The data of treasure island show that in 2014, the PX capacity of Asia was about 41 million 500 thousand tons, and the annual PX output was about 31 million 100 thousand tons based on 75% operating rate.

Last year, the PTA production capacity was about 65 million tons. According to the 0.66 tonne PX production rate of 1 tons PTA and 68%, PX demand was about 29 million 170 thousand tons last year.

It is estimated that the supply of PX in Asia last year was over 1 million 930 thousand tons.

Before 2013, the supply of PX in Asia was in short supply.

The latest spot market data show that the price of goods in the PTA market in East China is 4420 to 4430 yuan / ton (delivered), Yisheng offer price is 4410 yuan / ton (self mention), compared with the beginning of the year, the price of 4600 yuan / ton has dropped considerably.

At the same time, from the middle of December last year, the spot price of PTA showed a premium on futures prices.

From the industrial chain start up situation, the domestic PTA factory operation rate is 76.5%, the polyester plant's utilization rate is 76.5%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom's utilization rate is only 45%.

In terms of inventory, the average PTA inventory of PTA manufacturers and polyester enterprises is maintained at 4.5 days.

These two sets of data confirm the overall weakness of the PTA spot market.

With the continuous production of new capacity, the overcapacity of the PTA industry will further intensify, and the control capacity of PTA production enterprises will be greatly reduced.

As the upstream source product of PTA, crude oil price has not yet come to a clear bottoming signal, and PX price will continue to run weak.

At the same time, the downstream demand of PTA has not improved, and the spot price of PTA has been premium for futures prices.

There is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of PTA supply and demand, and price declines are hard to come to an end.

However, the international crude oil price rose sharply last Friday, making the market's stronger expectations for crude oil prices bottomed out. Investors can wait and see, and wait for the crude oil price trend to be further defined before entering the market.