Liu Zhirong: The More Bull Market, The More Losses.

China's e-commerce giant Alibaba shares plunged 8.78% in January 29, 2015 to 89.81 dollars per share, or about 25%, compared with $119.15 a share in November 10, 2014.

This is the stock market. The stock market is like a roller coaster. The value of the stock held in its hands is constantly jumping up and down. The bull market is changing more vigorously.

As for stocks and real estate, fried tenants are not for housing, and investors who buy stocks are not for profit sharing. They hope to buy at a low price and earn a high price.

This is speculative behavior, because it will not increase the wealth of society, and will not increase GDP by one yuan.

The price of a house from 100 thousand yuan to 1 million yuan will not become 10 houses and provide housing for more people. The price of a stock from 5 yuan to 50 yuan will not make dividends become 10 times the original, and provide more products for the society.

In the stock market, we keep the stock index high and call it a bull market.

The bull market is a manifestation of a shortage of demand in the market, that is, there are more funds to enter the stock market, and there are more demand for stocks. When the new shares are not issued, the total supply of stocks is certain, and the stock is scarce. The invisible hand of the market will raise the price of the stock, so as to achieve the balance between supply and demand.

If people generally think that the stock market can make money, there will continue to be new investors entering the market, and the old stock investors will continue to increase their positions. The stock market will have more and more funds in this big pool, which will support the stock index.

Investors must be clear that this stock index is a stock investor's own money.

Those who make money in the bull market earn money from the investors who are new to the market, or the old stock investors.

A friend called to tell me how much money he made in stock trading, and I was not happy about it. Why did I ask? Why did I ask him? I told him that you made money in stocks because someone was losing money in stocks and shares, and I was happy to earn money for your stock trading, but also felt sorry for those who lost money.

In fact, the nature of stock speculation and "rat meeting" is the same. No one will enter the market any time, nor will they always have money to enter the stock market, because people still need to consume material things to survive.

Therefore, investors should not expect the stock market to go on at any time. The stock index does not know when the downward turning point will enter the bear market.

。

Most shareholders believe that bull market stocks make money.

If it's old

The bull market will increase the probability of making money, because at this time there are new investors entering the market, which makes it easy for the old shareholders to solve the problem, that is, the old shareholders make money for new investors.

However, if we take the stock market as a closed system to investigate, the money earned by the investors who make money is the money paid by the shareholders who lose money, and stocks and gambling are like zero sum games.

but

It is not closed. It will pay part of the cost to the outside world, because the government should collect stamp duty on the stock holders, and the broker should also charge commission fees to the investors.

According to the SFC statistics, the stock paction volume in 2014 was 74 trillion and 391 billion 298 million yuan, and the stamp duty on pactions was 74 billion 238 million yuan, that is, 0.1% of the stock paction volume.

In addition, the fees charged by brokerages such as commissions are roughly 3 times the paction stamp duty, or 222 billion 714 million yuan. In 2014, the government and brokerages sucked 296 billion 952 million yuan from shareholders, accounting for 0.4% of the stock paction volume.

If dividends are paid less than $296 billion 952 million after tax, investors must be losing money.

China stipulates that the dividend income tax will exceed 1 years and the tax rate will be 5%. The tax rate will be 1 months to 1 years, and the tax rate will be 20% within 1 months.

We press 10% for 1 years, that is to say, dividends must be maintained at 329 billion 947 million yuan or more.

At the end of June 2014, the stock market value was 20 trillion and 302 billion 49 million yuan, which required dividend yield of more than 1.63%. At the end of 2014, there were 2613 listed companies. How many dividend rates would this number reach?

Because the stamp duty collected by the government and the commission paid by the securities commission are all proportional taxes and fees, that is, according to a certain proportion of the stock paction volume, the higher the index and the larger the paction volume, the higher the cost will be, and the more the shareholders will lose.