Economic Data Are Testing The Market.

The latest economic data show that industrial added value dropped to 6.8% in the first two months, a new low in a few months, and retail sales fell to 10.7% compared to the same period last year, indicating that market demand is very weak. In the first two months, the investment in fixed assets dropped to 13.9% year-on-year, which was quite different from that of the previous 20%~30%, while real estate sales fell to 15.8% in the same period. In February, the land purchase area dropped to minus 31.7%. Later real estate investment slowed down. Investment, especially real estate investment, is the main driving force for economic growth. Data show that future growth is still being tested.

According to previous logic, the more the economic gap is, the more stimulus it will be. But not long ago, the interest rate has been lowered again. The first two months of the data were recorded in a few quasi background when the interest rate dropped in October, and the direct and indirect decrease in the past six months. PPI growth rate, no matter how stimulating, always goes down all the way. If the credit policy is looser, can we get the stimulus?

The answer is: first, the demand for loans in the market is very weak; the central bank's questionnaire survey shows that the overall demand for loans has been declining since the second quarter of 2014, and the desire for loans in the fourth quarter of last year was lower than that in the third quarter, and it created the lowest aspirations since the financial crisis reached its climax at the end of 2008. Second, the accumulated interest and repayment pressure in history is great. Due to the high interest rate and additional expenses, the cost of repayment of interest or even the output value of all kinds of enterprises reached 30%. In essence, the capital utilization ratio of large state-owned enterprises is low. Third, the bank credit loan is no longer the main source of investment funds. Self financing The proportion is more than half.

So, Central Bank There is no need to loose too much money, stimulate and release too much liquidity, but from structural measures, from improving entrepreneurs' expectations and from building financing channels. In fact, the real beneficiaries of several incentives are the stock market, so public opinion is counterproductive in the stock market.

The central bank official said he did not believe that "capital into the stock market is not a support for the real economy". equity market It is the support of the real economy, and the Chinese logic is not "negative negation is affirmative". There are a couple of meanings here. A group of people in China think that the stock market is too prosperous, but it has weakened the real economy (reducing capital support), so that the central bank has to intervene. More importantly, it is impossible to maintain the stability of capital market and other actions.

After the rumors of the "China Version QE", the stock market's various lords are very nervous. Whether the banks' stock prices will continue to stop in the fourth quarter of last year will happen? If so, not only small cap stocks but also military stocks will be squeezed last year. If you understand the meaning behind "do not think", you will feel a false alarm.

"China Version QE" finally confirmed that it was only one trillion in quantity and QE in content. The one trillion yuan local debt replacement can not be regarded as a great benefit to the "pension market". It is noted that the issuers and redemers of such bonds are local governments. Therefore, in essence, it is only a "local debt extension" and "a change in the definition of a debt", or the delay of the debt problem that should be dealt with will be delayed for several years, and eventually it will be solved.

However, this is equivalent to clarification of the original vague local debt, and the interest should be paid back. This debt can not be increased, but because of the high interest rate, there is still a lot of interest to be paid, which requires local governments to think of ways to borrow interest from new debt. It should not be considered as advantageous to commercial banks.