The More Pessimistic The Economic Growth Forecast Is, The More Reason The Stock Market Rises.

Since the end of 1990, China's stock market, after nearly 1/4 centuries of trudge, has finally ushered in the first bull market in the history of leveraged bull market, easy to turn into a low dividend yield under the Pang style financing bull market.

Once the leveraged bull market is converted into a leveraged bear market, retail investors are completely eliminated.

The cautious attitude is that when retail investors are catching up with high buying, they must resolutely implement the stop loss line.

The US trade deficit decreased by 17% in February, the lowest level in 2009, and the old mode of US borrowing to support global growth is in jeopardy.

The mainstream view is that the recovery of the US economy is mainly caused by industrial reflux and energy independence, which is ineffective growth and can not radiate the whole world.

This means that the central bank has postponed the printing of banknotes in order to survive the long run of the zigzag growth led by the Japanese style of recovery and recession.

This gives China the first place in the world, which has the opportunity to implement the strategy of "one belt and one road" and promote the establishment of Asia Investment Bank.

In the 30s of last century, the US Federal Reserve caused the great depression because of premature tightening of monetary policy. Now, the Central Bank of the world is unwilling to repeat the same mistakes.

Now, this phobia has been pmitted to China.

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, said for the first time that he should be alert to deflation risk. This reminds him of the first time he mentioned "fine tune" two words in the middle of 2009 when he talked about monetary policy, and laid the foreshadowing for the stock index to meet at 3478 o'clock in August of that year.

In fact, China's PPI has been in decline for 37 consecutive months.

Already existed.

Earlier, the central bank was more worried about the high price of housing at any time may trigger a new round of inflation and even stagflation.

At present, there is a contrast between high inventory and low demand for buying property.

In the context of the difficulty of exporting and consumption, if the property market collapses, the steady growth of investment driven economy will become empty talk.

Historically, the housing bubble burst in parts of Hainan, such as the second half of 1993, which lifted China's prices from the CPI growth rate of 27.7% over the previous month, and entered a long period of decline until 2003.

Now the property market bubble is spreading all over the country. Once the concentration is detonated, the overall deflation may come.

Monetary easing and the new property market are mainly to slow down the property market bubble, and spillover funds make the stock market crazy.

If we refer to A shares from the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem, the turning point of the structural bull market has already appeared in December 4, 2012.

At that time, the lowest points of the two were 724 points and 585 points, respectively, which closed at 2080 and 2510 on Friday.

The opening of the bull market depends on the emergence of leveraged funds.

This is the basis for the SFC spokesman's "stock market rise has its inevitability and rationality".

From a macro perspective,

After excessive expansion, raising the proportion of direct financing is in the lead. Even for this reason, we even sacrifice the "registration system".

The root of the problem is that the senior leaders no doubt want to reproduce the US stock boom, even if this kind of prosperity comes from the central bank's full push.

As of April 1st, the balance of margin between the two cities in Shenzhen and Shanghai reached 1 trillion and 520 billion yuan, and all kinds of funds came in all directions.

The SFC is tacitly aware that this week, four nuclear companies will apply for the first 30 enterprises.

The biggest difference between Chinese bull market and US stock lies in

The crazy new stock market can hedge all man-made bull bubbles.

This confirms Zhou Xiaochuan's view that capital entering the stock market also supports the real economy.

Perhaps in the eyes of the current stock market regulators, the 6124 point in the Shang Fulin era is still high. The 3800 point is still halfway up the hill, and there is no time for "midnight cock" to suppress the stock market.

The stock market can be expected to lose three, the first is the current control of the pace of moderate speed expansion, second is the super large share expansion, third is the registration system under the control of expansion.

In a government led economy that concentrates on major events, the pmission mechanism of monetary and fiscal policies is much faster than the free market.

However, to get rid of the deflation dilemma, it is necessary to stimulate demand with a bigger bubble.

If the 6124 point reflects global economic prosperity and overheated China's economy, the current global stock market surge is the result of liquidity overflowing.

This bull market lacks performance support, and the prediction limit is basically a category of financial behavior.

The most typical way is to guess when the last passenger will be on the Titanic.

As of Thursday's closing, the average price earnings ratio of the gem was 92 times, while the average price earnings ratio of the 16 banks was only 7.39 times.

It is hard to predict when the gem valuation will peaked, just as it is hard to guess whether bank shares are still going down.

However, the disparity between the two valuations can easily lead to stampede in the pformation of market style.

Like the "5. 30" crash in the bull market in 2007.