How To Make Use Of Market Sentiment To Make Money?

Two words are often used in the passage.

And the market value of the parity.

Especially in the case of A shares, once the wind is rising, the similar plates are showing a common trend of rising and falling.

Before opening the text, I said two points:

1, after the withdrawal of a new round of funds, most of the stocks I had previously retained only profitable positions. At present, the way of cash holdings is still the way to prepare for the next wave of opportunities. I am not sure when such opportunities will come. The principle is that no better targets will be returned easily.

2, the process of holding is actually only a balance between the position and the expected position. There is no absolute right way. There is no way to predict all the possibilities accurately and accurately.

There is no right or wrong in investment, only win or lose. Do what you believe is practical and do not believe in anyone or any way.

Let's return to the following topic:

Market value, I have written three articles about the trend of A bull market during the past years. What we often say is that the value of any enterprise or the return on investment is finally reflected in the growth of market value.

You can't be sure of the randomness and the phasing of volatility, but in some general directions, you can determine whether a company has the opportunity to expand its market value.

This opportunity arises from the increase in the profitability of an enterprise and the expected premium that it brings to the market, or the expected premium, which is the commonality of any market. Under the precondition of abundant liquidity, it is the market premium.

When it comes to market capitalization, a concept is introduced.

"And" absolute valuation "correspond to the recognition of the market value and the absolute market value of the parity price.

Emotional response is the public's preferences for investment, such as 07 years of real estate, coloured resources of coal, 08 years after the medical and medical consumer shares, 13 years after the information services and the current Internet +, in fact, the public in a special historical stage for a certain industry or plate of high enthusiasm and concern, and then brought some irrational premium factors, thus creating a deviation from the basic valuation of the emotional premium, we call it emotional valuation.

As the saying goes, identifying bubbles is easy, but making use of bubbles is a real effort to invest in real markets.

How to see the market value of a company, whether the height it can reach and whether it resonates with the common market is more important, and what is more important is the expected continuity of the company's resonance.

I take a recent example of a standard run and software.

When we look at stocks, we must first have a basic tracking of the whole industry's target. This tracking, such as the establishment of our special plate pool for the suspension stocks, as well as a general understanding of the whole market target of the TMT industry, takes time, and it is impossible to seize the sudden opportunities at any time.

In this interview, I talked about catching such opportunities. You have to have a macroscopic and general plate cognition so that you can bet on opportunities and bet in time when opportunities arise.

Then the problem comes out. When run and software stop to open, how do we see if there is still a chance?

In my earlier article, I used several valuation methods, first of all, from the company's 15 year earnings expectations, and the corresponding PE state of the profit expectations of the acquisition, which actually reflects the absolute market value of a dynamic valuation.

In other words, it is common sense that PE can be accepted by any specific expected performance.

We passed the company's

The state of pre growth and the performance commitment of pre purchased target, including a number of valuations before the institution, will be a horizontal prediction. The company's latest performance in 15 years will be 300 million. It is natural for us to see what the PE state of the whole software information is. We have to look at the indicators of the whole industry sector, and choose as many samples as possible, rather than a general plate PE.

So the analysis we didn't see is that we actually need to look at the spin information of embedded software, as well as Bo Yan technology, which has software outsourcing business, and directly to the CB, An Shuo, information and so on. OK, give us the most intuitive feeling. These PE with similar businesses are already 200~300 times higher.

According to the valuation of software information service targets in the long run, small market companies are rarely below the 50PE level even in bear markets. This is the normal valuation. So you can't say that the software information service company that has 300 million profit will give PE 30 times to the lowest level of the traditional industries, or the big bear market, otherwise your valuation will not have any practical value.

In accordance with the current fund fever and market sentiment valuation, we choose as many as PE80 times of any software information stock to a benchmark, so the corresponding valuation of the company can reach at least 25 billion. This is a valuation state that we can predict at least 70 yuan after the restructuring of the 358 million capital stock.

At this point, we think that the target is arbitrage value at 50 yuan.

It provides a good support for shareholding mentality.

Then we come back to reality. After reaching this standard, what we should do is to put the profit margin into the market's emotional premium after gaining the most stable profits.

What is the emotional premium? This actually reflects a wave of market expectations.

It embodies the market value of parity.

So the question is, what is the status of our sample stock? We are going back to see China's golden wealth and Xinya technology. In the case of shyda, xinyada's profit is expected to be 160 million by the 15 year's agency. Now, the corresponding market value of today's closing is 33 billion 300 million. PE has reached 200 times the same state. Similarly, we can see that CIC and long Liang technology are also in such a state. The long technology can only be less than 80 million (optimistic valuation). At present, the market value has been 24 billion 600 million, PE has reached 300 times, and several other benchmarks are two hundred or three hundred times valuations.

What does this mean? It means that run and can also get a pulse of emotional premium, so how to determine the realization of this pulse may be, to be honest, there is no guarantee, because, as many people have said, if the valuation of the price is based on the bubble premium, it can only look at the movement of gas.

Here we are going to analyze several factors. Whether run and software have such luck, we look at the company's business structure, and the market's recognition of the value recognition of the information service company of the banking core system has no doubt. It is the state that the market has come out. Ran and pre merger company LIAN smart fusion and the former financial information core system evaluation service company Jie Ke Chi Cheng are the leaders of the industry with the leading discourse power, that advantage is obvious.

The inspiration to everyone is that the premise of the bet is still a basic understanding of the industry structure and a basic understanding of the business capability of the industry company.

There is no reason why any market value will be lower than the target price of a few comparable prices when the net profit is higher than the benchmark.

Another point of view is not to consider other business valuation. It is the only attribute of LIAN's core financial system bank2.0, and the 130 million profit of 15 years. It should also be worth 350~500 billion with the target that the market has already come out. Let alone the original business itself has the synergy effect and the supply chain software service attribute. The original market value is calculated according to the situation before the pre suspension state does not follow the rise of the plate to 6 billion 500 million. Is the market value of the whole market able to be optimistic to 40 billion?

Other synchronous gains, such as the same plate, can be referred to.

From the time span to assume the status of no suspension, but this can only be relative reference. This example is also used in the analysis of run and I do not repeat here, and this state is also continuous.

This is what we are going to use to predict the expected value of fortune. Can I get there? I don't know, but it is possible.

So our strategy is to keep the most stable profits, and we will use profitable stores for this period.

If this period can go down, we still have the opportunity to annotation, go up, we can enjoy this premium process, the mentality is naturally a lot of peace.

What is the risk point, that is, the ebb tide of the plate, but this ebb is not good enough to judge the time and the way of coming. This is also the factor and reason for the control of the positions mentioned above.

But even if the plate is retraced, there will be a long process from the background of the entire software information in the current national level of cognition and support, and the historical trend of the Internet tide.

Then we will give a safety margin to PE70~80 according to the safety expectation, that is, in the condition of not such a big heat in itself, according to the previous valuation of the whole software information, there is no strong wind. It will extend to 16 years, and the expected net profit of more than 400 million is estimated to be 280~320 billion, corresponding to 358 million of the capital stock, and the security interval is 78~90 yuan. That is to say, if you go through this interval, you will not say that there is no way out.

This position is safe now, so I can't predict the height of the emotional premium of the market and how much time it will arrive.

Here, several methods and essentials of valuing absolute ratio and safety ratio are all in one continuous line, and my stock analysis is based on several logical considerations mentioned above.

The difference is just to say that your ability circle understands the stock sector, the direction of the industry, the choice of the target and the position management under the game.