Interpretation Of China's Round Out Reserve Cotton Policy

Very strong, and the competitiveness of State Cotton in the year of 2012 is obviously lower than that of the 2011 national cotton reserves in the year of 2011, and weaker than that of imported cotton in the year of 2012; the 200 thousand tons of cotton in the national storage area in 2 and 2012 years should be the focus of attention and auction of large and medium-sized cotton textile factories. On the one hand, no cotton import quota can be used to pick up American cotton; on the other hand, after the re examination, the price of 15500 yuan / ton is slightly higher than that of the current port SM class US cotton net weight quoted price of RMB yuan / ton (converted to almost the same price as that of the public price), but compared with that of Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou and other port bonded cotton countries, the United States cotton has the characteristics of "good consistency, good fiber length and suitable horse value". At present, the industry's priorities include: 1, 2011 and 2012 cotton re inspection, but the auction price difference between 1000 yuan / ton, obviously the government's intention to Chen cotton.

It is reported that some of the reserve cotton will be released in 7-8 months, and the number of rounds will be temporarily suspended by 1 million tons, and the sale will be suspended after the new year begins in September. The specific quantity and price arrangement will be: 330 thousand tons of domestic cotton in 2011, the bid price will be set at 3128B (the same level as the same below), 13200 yuan / ton in 2012, 470 thousand tons in domestic cotton in 2012, 14200 yuan / ton in the bid price, 200 thousand tons in imported cotton in 2012, and 15500 yuan / ton in the bid price, and some warehouses in Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu have been re examined and bundled.

From the reaction of some foreign businessmen and importers, the impact of 200 thousand tons of imported cotton on the supply of high-grade cotton in the market is obvious, after all, as early as July, except a certain amount of Southern Xinjiang. Hand picking cotton And 7/8/9 months arrived in Australia cotton and Brazil cotton quantity at least 400 thousand tons, high-grade cotton supply or appear more obvious surplus; and 2011, 2012 years of national cotton and port India cotton, West Africa cotton customs import and impact on the customs clearance, so the industry consensus is that the impact of the national cotton store on the spot sale of foreign cotton needs a long time to digest; but for ICE futures, favorable views prevail, think that China's rotation cotton reserve on the surface is for the domestic cotton flower price "bottom", give consideration to meet the needs of the cotton mill, indirectly look for the far ICE futures and 2015/16 cotton prices set the tone, stable market confidence, good for the ICE market continued to rebound. Outside (some institutions and cotton enterprises estimate about 300 thousand tons), Port Bonded cotton and cotton.

From the perspective of ICE, the price of each contract is "near high and low", and there is not enough confidence in the price outlook for cotton prices. For example, in July 1st, December 2015, March 2016 and May 2016, the price of the contract was 68 cents / pound, 67.38 cents / pound, 66.69 cents / pound, but after 15500 yuan / ton of Chinese round store price, the contract price difference in recent months and far months showed. Narrowing trend Supporting ICE's "near weak and far strong" pattern is conducive to stabilizing confidence among many bulls and speculators, and also helps the international cotton traders and Chinese buyers to analyze the market and agree on the price of US cotton in the coming months.

In addition, Round out policy After the introduction of the market, the panic and fear in the cotton market stopped abruptly. Since March, the dumping and storage rumors have been noisy, but no matter whether the 1 million tons of dumping reserves are 13200 yuan / ton, 14200 yuan / ton, 15500 yuan / ton, the dumping and storage prices are lower and higher than the industry's expectations; and obviously, the 470 thousand ton 2012 national storage cotton 14200 yuan / ton price itself has the intention of "lifting the price of cotton"; moreover, taking into account the Australian cotton quotations "high and small", India cotton S-6 "can not afford to use large quantities", the port cotton is in a semi salable state, but before October, cotton merchants are unlikely to take the initiative to reduce the amount of running, and the magnitude of ICE shock is expected to shrink, the main contract or repeated fluctuations in the 65-68 cent car body.