Cotton Futures Market Still Sees Empty Cotton Prices

This article will tell you that cotton production is still unable to stop falling prices.

In recent years, the futures market Zheng cotton rebounded slightly after a downward trend, close to the lowest point of the previous period.

For cotton, in August, in the month of the old and new year's handover, the state store and Xinjiang cotton were sold.

The main source of supply for cotton.

In the new year, the state should also carry out the rotation of reserve cotton.

However, even in anticipation of a new round of domestic cotton production reduction, the futures market is still not optimistic about the future trend of cotton prices. Yantai futures analysts believe that under the high inventory and low demand market, cotton is still empty.

In recent years, the futures market Zheng cotton rebounded slightly after a downward trend, close to the lowest point of the previous period.

However, according to the reporter, because the cotton price is low in recent years, the planting area has been greatly reduced. From the domestic fundamentals, domestic cotton is expected to reduce production by 14%, and its output will be about 5 million 500 thousand tons.

The 7-8 month is the cotton Bolling period and the peak period of fertilizer demand. However, this summer, the whole country is not flooding or drought, plus high temperature, which is unfavorable for cotton production. The cotton production situation in the mainland is not optimistic. This also affects the cotton output this year.

Nevertheless, the futures market is still looking at cotton prices, and analysts in Yantai are still watching the trend of cotton in the future.

"Cotton production also can not change the situation of decline."

Leng Yudong, Zhongzhou futures Chemical Research Institute, said that in the 3 years of cotton storage and storage, domestic cotton was replaced by a large number of chemical fibers, and the chemical fiber products had better development in terms of comfort, functionality and product profits.

In addition, imported cotton yarn has obvious substitution for domestic cotton consumption. When the domestic cotton price difference is obvious, the import enthusiasm of traders is higher. The path and channel of imported yarn entering the domestic market are gradually opened up, and some weaving factories have gradually adapted to the production of imported yarn.

At present, the absolute price of cotton has been at a low level and there is limited space to continue.

However, due to the impact of macroeconomic expectations, cotton prices remain weak shocks, and for a relatively long period of time, the possibility of bottom oscillation of cotton prices is still large.

Gu Renhui, marketing director of Dongxing Futures Limited company, also believes that the trend of cotton will remain low in the future.

Though from home

The production is reduced, but the inventory pressure is high, and the whole economic environment is not good. A large number of textile factories are closed down, and the demand is also small. "It is difficult to change the situation at one thirty."

Trading information from the cotton information network shows that on the 6 day, the Xinjiang cotton auction sale launched a resource volume of 6656.709 tons, with a turnover of 44.658 tons, with a turnover ratio of 0.67%, a paction price of 13210 yuan / ton, and a 214.4455 ton Toner (2012 domestic cotton).

Obviously, the market supply is adequate, but the acceptance is low, and demand is still low.

Then, when will cotton prices change?

Leng Yudong believes that cotton will begin to enter the inventory cycle in 2015-2016, but the inventory pressure is still large, the pace of global economic recovery is still slow, coupled with the domestic economic growth rate down, as a whole, the possibility of bottom price shocks is greater, and cotton prices should be low for half a year to attract more.

The increase of cotton consumption in garment enterprises can bring about the increase of consumption.

It seems that it is difficult to have a trend rise before the second half of 2016.