How Does The Investment Banking Seminar Interpret China'S Economy?

I just took part in the Seminar of the Credit Suisse market outlook in the second half of this year. I first threw aside my views, but at least it was the most telling seminar I have heard for a long time.

China's economy is partly familiar with Mr. Tao Dong, chief economist of Asia. Although slides has prepared dozens of pages, he basically wrote a lot of dry goods.

Because of Europe's QE, it is not optimistic about the euro, but optimistic about the European stock market;

In the BRICs, China and India have maintained a certain level of economic growth, but Russia and Brazil have clearly entered recession.

The fundamentals of the US economic recovery are still relatively stable, so raising interest rates is still a big probability event.

From historical data, even if the interest rate rises, the stock market will still keep rising. The market volatility will definitely exist, but at present, the basic valuation of the European and American stock market is reasonable, and it should be upward in the next 12 months; and from the past 200 years' historical data, the stock market's profit rate outperforms inflation over 6%, which is a very good asset allocation.

Crude oil prices may fall below the current level in the short term, but the long-term range should be 40-60 US dollars / barrel.

The price of gold is not very good. In the process of interest rate reduction, the relative value of gold is highlighted, but the dollar starts to raise interest rates, which is not good for gold.

The real estate sector still depends on specific areas, and can not be generalized. Spain and other places may have opportunities.

No matter what the official GDP number is, China's economy On the whole, it is quite pessimistic. In the north-west and mining dominated northwest of the state-owned enterprises, the basic economy has already entered a recession; the export driven Guangdong and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang economies have grown by about 1%; Jiangsu, Sichuan, local governments have been dragged down by the high debt; Beijing Shanghai is slightly better, but it has also been hit hard by the stock market crash.

But unfortunately, through the anti-corruption to break the old economic development rules or hidden rules, has made the core sector of the government, the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have completely lost the consistent interests of the past with economic development. At present, omission and lazy politics are normal. No matter how the central government promotes, even if it is necessary to make infrastructure stimulus, it is difficult to implement. Perhaps the biggest macroeconomic stimulus in the future will depend on the Bureau of statistics.

Current discussion Gross domestic product Growth is meaningless. The old incentive mechanism for China's economic growth has disappeared, and the new mechanism is completely invisible.

There have been many bull markets in the past 20 years, and bear market has seen many, but at present, China's stock market is a panda City, and it is totally impossible to predict. It is still worrying that a referee can change the rules of the game at any time.

at present RMB appreciation The trend has come to an end. The price of the first tier cities in the domestic real estate market is even higher than that in Tokyo. The inventory rate of the 40% tier cities is even higher than that of the two or three line cities. In the past, the real estate market has undergone many adjustments, but all of them are government led.

Although pessimistic about the economy, it is recommended not to touch anything related to CS (Credit bank, State government), but there is optimism, that is, high-end service industry. The mobile phone industry, high-end medical industry, film and television industry still saw good growth.

Finally, give three sentences:

1. trust the government;

2. but the government is not God;

3. hold the risk portal.