It Is Highly Likely That The European Central Bank Will Release A Strong Easing Signal.

At 7:45 this evening, the European Central Bank will announce the resolution of the last second monetary policy meetings this year.

Wall Street people generally believe that the European Central Bank to increase the easing of stimulus is only a matter of time. The earliest possible meeting in December this year announced that the more likely way to relax is to postpone the current QE project.

Today, the European central bank governor Delagi may hint that he has the will and ability to relax and overweight, but will not disclose any specific action signals, so as to avoid a negative impact on the market.

Bloomberg News survey of 53 economists predicted that today the European Central Bank will decide that interest rates remain at a record low level.

More than 80% of the economists surveyed expect the ECB to launch more stimulus, of which 56% of the economists are expected to end before the end of this year.

Peng Bo reports that the dilemma facing Delagi is that he can neither commit to action nor dissolve the risk of economic recovery in the euro area.

Francesco Papadia, who was responsible for the operation of the European Central Bank, pointed out:

"The ECB appears to be more worried about the region's economy, but it is not inclined to launch now. Compared with the European Central Bank, the market has more confidence in the economy, but it is also expected that the central bank will act.

For Delagi, it is difficult to talk about any topic, because that releases two signals: the ECB is going to act, the situation is worse than we thought.

Barclays did not rule out the possible reduction of the deposit rate already -0.2%, but it is not expected that the next two meetings will decide to do so. In addition to lowering interest rates, the ECB's other main option is to expand the scope of QE's purchase of assets.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, HSBC, Nomura and UBS all consider it impossible to cut interest rates.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also believes that it is possible to increase the purchase of high-risk corporate bonds.

The Bank of Holland also expects to increase the type of asset purchases.

Italy Union Credit Bank expects the current QE to launch QE2 after the deadline.

Paris Bank of France, Credit Agricole of credit, Royal Bank of Scotland, J.P. Morgan, IHS Global Insight and Holland bank are all expected to expand the size of their assets.

Market reaction:

Italy united credit bank believes that the euro may be a threshold in the 1.15-1.20 range. If the exchange rate is in that range, it means that the ECB will continue to release pigeon rhetoric, and this week it may have to release it.

Morgan Stanley believes that lowering the deposit rate by 10 basis points may be the most effective measure to limit the rise in the euro rate.

Yesterday's Wall Street article noted that Goldman Sachs predicted that once the resolution of the ECB meeting was beyond expectations, the euro exchange rate would go down, even if the European Central Bank announced that it would accelerate the pace of QE or cut interest rates.

If the ECB cuts the deposit rate by 10 basis points, the euro will go against the US dollar.

It will drop by about 2 large numbers.

The following is a summary of the recent forecasts of Wall Street's major Wall Street institutions. What will the European Central Bank do today?

It is expected that the institutions that will maintain the current QE and interest rates unchanged and continue to publish pigeon comments include Barclay, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Italy united credit bank, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Nomura, Morgan Stanley and Holland bank.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that after the European Central Bank meeting, Delagi will release complex signals, because if he behaves too hawkish, the risk of the euro exchange rate will rise sharply.

But the longer the ECB is dragging, the more it is necessary for the market to believe that the ECB can achieve the goal of price stability.

The Bank of Paris in France does not rule out the possibility that the European Central Bank will act at the earliest possible rate of about 40% today.

The European Central Bank has increased its time to relax.

The institutions whose benchmarks predict the meeting in December this year are:

Merrill Lynch, Merrill Lynch, Credit Union Bank of Italy, Bank of Paris, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland, J.P. Morgan, IHS Global Insight

Goldman Sachs expects that in December and January next year, the Agricultural Credit Bank of France is expected in the first quarter of next year, Nomura expects to be in March next year, the Bank of Holland is expected to end before the end of this year.

But UBS believes that the ECB will not make any changes to the current QE and will end the current QE in September next year, and then use some sort of step by step to end QE.

Increase?

The way:

The institutions that may choose to extend the current QE project include: Barclay, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, Paris, France, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Nomura, Citigroup, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland, Morgan chase, IHS Global Insight, and Holland bank.

Morgan Stanley believes that interest rate cuts and faster QE purchases are more effective than QE delays and are easier for some European Central Bank hawkish policymakers.