Liu Xiaobo: The RMB Has Been Derogatory For Five Weeks, And The Stock Market Is Cloudy.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 66.86 points, closing at 3470.07 points, down 1.89%.

The three big indexes (Shen Cheng Zhi, small and medium-sized board index, GEM) all collected Yin, and the decline ranged from 1.7% to 2.23%.

1, the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate slightly. From the weekly chart, it has been a slight depreciation for fifth consecutive weeks. This trend has been rare in recent years.

At the close, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar (CNY) fell 0.15%, to 6.4179, the lowest closing level since 2011.

Offshore renminbi also fell more than 100 points, or 0.19%, at 6.4861.

US dollar pair

Exchange rate weekly K line chart, rising represents devaluation of RMB.

The largest line in the picture is the 3 consecutive day of depreciation in August.

The 5 small lines on the right are the continuous depreciation of the RMB since the last 5 weeks.

2, the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken is the two big news, first, the foreign exchange reserves announced on November were again "unexpectedly" substantially reduced; the two was released on Tuesday, the number of imports and exports in November is still not ideal, the total value of imports and exports dropped 4.5% in the same month, and the cumulative amount in the first 11 months decreased by 7.8% compared with the same period in November.

3, Monday, Peng Bo

The index fell 2.1% to 79.97, a 16 year low.

This year the index has fallen by 23%, which is 22% lower than the difficult financial crisis.

Crude oil (mainly affected by the United States) and iron ore (mainly affected by Chinese factors) led to a fall.

4, on the morning of Tuesday morning in Beijing, international oil prices showed "flash collapse", which once plummeted nearly 6%, and saw a minimum of 37.50 dollars per barrel, the lowest since February 2009.

Goldman Sachs believes that oil prices may fall to $20 a barrel in the future.

As for the future market, my view is as follows: it is expected that the central bank will have a reduction in the near future, perhaps this weekend.

The poorer the market, the more active the policy will be.

1, hot money has the tendency to withdraw from the stock market and enter the first tier cities and strong second tier cities.

Recently, information from the real estate sector in Shenzhen and Shanghai shows that a new wave of hot money has begun to pour into the stock market.

Among them, there are more investment funds from all over the country.

In Shenzhen, a lot of new plates are hard to find once again.

2, the stock market faces the test of the US dollar interest rate increase, the "big shareholder and the end of Dong Jiangao's ban period", and the latter will be more stressed.

Management is now rather difficult. If we extend the ban period, it will mean that the market is going to be "abnormal". It will not be consistent with the direction of registration system reform. If it is not extended, the index will inevitably go to a bigger stage.

The final solution may be to allow large shareholders to issue a voluntary extension.

3, the main force on Wednesday is bound to be protected. The way is still to raise banks, brokerages, insurance and real estate. Besides, there is no other way to deal with it. Two barrels of oil are no longer able to afford "rotten tofu".