Textile And Garment Retail Sales Have Improved Slightly, But The Effect Is Not Obvious.

According to statistics, as of December 28th, the difference of cotton price between inside and outside was reduced to -987 yuan / ton under sliding tax, and the price difference of 1% tariff quota was 1262 yuan / ton.

It can be seen that the quotation of cotton under the sliding tariff is 987 yuan / ton higher than that of domestic cotton, and the attraction of cotton imports under the sliding tax has declined significantly.

1%

The imported cotton has a profit margin of 1262 yuan / ton. For the quota spinning enterprises, imported cotton at this price level is still very attractive.

It is reported that textile enterprises generally reflect that this year's domestic cotton, whether Xinjiang cotton or inland cotton, is not suitable for spinning high count yarn.

Strong demand for high-grade Australian and American cotton.

Through observing the monthly import data of cotton, we find that the number of imported cotton in China has declined significantly this year, on the one hand, it is related to China's import control policy; on the other hand, it is due to the return of cotton price difference between inside and outside.

Price advantage is weakening.

According to statistics, in November 2015, the retail sales of clothing commodities of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China dropped by 5% compared with the same period last year, the lowest monthly growth rate this year, down 5.9 percentage points from the same period last year, down 6.9 percentage points from last month.

From the data of retail sales volume, the volume of retail sales of all kinds of clothing in 100 major large retail enterprises in November increased by 4.5% over the same period last year, down 1.5 percentage points from the same period last year, down 4 percentage points from last month.

From the published data, we can see that the domestic clothing sales situation has not yet shown signs of improvement, and the domestic textile and apparel market is still stagnant.

Zheng cotton main contract 1605 continued low oscillation, seems to rebound, but the market has no obvious positive factors support.

This year, the global cotton market showed a shortage of supply, but because of the high inventory at the end of the year and the weakness of downstream consumption, cotton prices showed a weak rebound.

Customs data show that in November 2015, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 21 billion 982 million US dollars, down 7.07%, down 9.71% from the same period last year.

As of November 2015, textile and clothing exports grew negative year-on-year in 10 months this year, and the growth rate is still negative.

It can be seen that the downstream consumption demand of cotton is still not optimistic.

To sum up, the author believes that although the cotton supply pattern in 2015/2016 has changed from the previous year's easing to a shortage, it is a profit factor, but the high inventory data can not be ignored.

In addition, the recent market on the late state sell-off cotton reserve hot debate, and national cotton stocks huge, there is also the possibility of future price sell-off.

At present, cotton prices are still weak.