Polyester Plant Continues To Stop Maintenance Of Short And Short Staple Manufacturers.

Polyester and short market stability and stability, manufacturers offer basically stable, Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4D direct spinning polyester short market mainstream reported 6200-6300 yuan / ton factory, the deal can be negotiated.

Fujian polyester short market quotation is stable, 1.4D direct spinning polyester and short market mainstream newspaper 6200-6250 yuan / ton short delivery, actual business negotiations, early PTA futures opened weak trend.

Pure polyester yarn quotation remained stable, 32S mainstream offer 10000 yuan / ton up and down, 45s sales slightly better than other specifications, mainstream quotation 11100 yuan / ton nearby.

Over the Spring Festival, polyester devices have been stopped for maintenance, and the market is taking the lead.

Shandong,

Polyester and short

Stable, 1.4D direct spinning polyester short mainstream newspaper 6200-6300 yuan / ton to deliver, the actual deal can be negotiated, the market confidence is slightly insufficient, the inquiry hand over is light.

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According to the report of the international cotton advisory board (ICAC), the global cotton output in 2015/2016 will reach 23 million 110 thousand tons, down 11.7% from the same period last year, and the consumption will be 24 million 370 thousand tons, up 0.54% from the same period last year. The cotton stocks will be 21 million 920 thousand tons at the beginning of the year, and the final inventory will be 20 million 650 thousand tons. We believe that the global cotton inventory needs to digest for several years or more, and the huge stock pressure will hinder the rise of the international cotton price.

We expect that the global cotton planting area in 2015/16 will be reduced by about 2% over the previous year.

Under the background of opening up the US interest rate channel and the structural reform of domestic economy, we expect that China will continue to maintain relatively loose monetary policy in 2016, support the structural reform of domestic economy, or cut interest rates or reduce the accuracy. This may cause two impacts on Cotton: first, the cost of spinning enterprises is falling, stimulating the demand of cotton enterprises; the two is that the central bank's interest rate cut will lead to narrowing of the internal and external spreads, or will lead to the depreciation of the RMB, which will have a direct impact on the mainland's textile industry to enhance its international competitiveness.

In 2015, the total output of cotton in China was 5 million 605 thousand tons, a decrease of 9.3% over the same period last year, and the total consumption was about 7 million 500 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.25% compared with the same period last year, with a terminal inventory of about 11 million 980 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.77% over the same period last year.

Due to the sharp decline in cotton prices in the past three years and below the cost of planting, the confidence in cotton planting has been frustrated for a long time to be repaired, and the attractiveness of the 2016 competitive crops (grains and soybeans) is expected to continue to improve.

It is estimated that cotton output will be about 5 million 300 thousand tons in 2016, down 9.3% compared with the same period last year, and the total cotton consumption will be about 7 million 300 thousand tons, down 2.7% from the same period last year.

We expect that the supply of cotton in China will be short of 2 million 500 thousand tons in 2016, but the stock is still near the 12 million ton high. The task of going to stock is still not finished, and the downstream market has not been improved. In 2016, there is no room for substantial increase in cotton prices, but the partial rebound is not ruled out.

On the whole, we believe that cotton prices are still at the low level of the bear market cycle. Only after the late inventory has been improved, the cost and benefits of planting cotton have been improved and the situation has been improving.