Ren Zeping'S Interpretation Of The Trend Of A Shares In 2016

Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, said that for the 2016 A share trend, he believed that most of the risks had been released, and the market would gradually shrink to a big bottom. Many stocks fell out of investment value. If they fell further, investors would provide an opportunity to pick up money from a medium and long term. It was suggested that more stocks with long-term investment value should be excavated, and structural opportunities such as supply side reform should be paid attention to.

For long-term investors, our proposal is simple. That is, as the market goes down, many stocks start to highlight their long-term investment value. I think we think a lot of stocks can be seen.

Ren Zeping said that for the 2016 A share trend, he believed that most of the risks had been released, and the market would gradually shrink to a big bottom. Many stocks fell out of investment value. If they fell further, investors would provide an opportunity to pick up money from a medium and long term. It was suggested that more stocks with long-term investment value should be excavated, and structural opportunities such as supply side reform should be paid attention to.

It is believed that the world is opening up a risk avoidance mode. It should be matched with gold, playing military industry stocks and seeing more high interest rate debt.

The root cause of the global market turmoil is currency dependence and lack of reform.

Asset price bubbles, which are spawned by broad money, will eventually return to fundamentals. The fundamentals of the global stock market are showing signs of big end, and some of them have gone through technology.

Ren Zeping accurately predicted the "5000 point is not a dream" in 2014, and again accurately predicted the new year's crash in January 4, 2016, suggesting "recuperation". Before the festival, the "second wave adjustment was basically completed".

Ren Zeping said, our view is that this should be in this round of global market adjustment, the A share is the earliest tune, that is, we began to adjust in June, then you see from this rhythm, in fact, most of the risk of A shares have been released.

That is to say, A shares may be affected by the global market after the holiday, and there may be some pressure.

But we also suggest that as a slightly professional investor, it should be that the market should be gradual.

It is becoming more and more safe.

So the risk is that the opportunity to rise is falling out.

Our investment proposal is: if it is for short-term investors, we propose to add gold and take a look at military industry from a game point of view, and it can be matched with a high level interest rate debt, for example, treasury bonds.

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In the long run, floating exchange rate will be an inevitable choice for the renminbi, said Lin Cai Yi, chief economist of Guotai Junan.

Lin Caiyi said that in terms of China's economic development and its status as the world's second largest economy, free convertibility under capital terms is no choice.

According to the logic of China's economic development, after joining the WTO, China's trade sector has basically integrated into the global market and has become an integral part of the world economy.

The participation of China's real economy in the global market has led to the internationalization of China's financial sector, which is the natural law of market development.

In addition, as the second largest economy in the world, China's status as a big power in the international arena is irreversible.

Correspondingly, the process of RMB internationalization is irreversible, and the convertibility under capital terms is an indispensable condition for the internationalization of RMB and China's position in the international financial market.

In Lin Yi Yi's view, the RMB exchange rate floating will bring three aspects of influence.

First, the dimension of policy objectives has been reduced, and the effectiveness of policies has been improved. Since August 11, 2015, in order to control the RMB exchange rate, change the market's expectation of RMB exchange rate and reduce the pressure of outflow of environmental capital, the central bank has intervened in the market and paid huge cost. Until December 11th, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center launched the RMB basket currency index, and the yuan finally broke up with the US dollar. It abandoned the fixed exchange rate which always pegged the US dollar and opened the era of truly managed floating exchange rate with basket currencies as anchor.

Secondly, it can regulate the balance of payments more effectively.

Moreover, under the floating exchange rate environment, the RMB exchange rate can more truly reflect China's real competitiveness in the global economy and become a stabilizer in the global financial market.