Catching Up With Taobao Jingdong Is Just A Matter Of Time, Ctrip CEO Liang Jianzhang Said.

Liang Jianzhang also said, "recently, I made a few internal remarks that Ctrip's 120 billion scale is far behind Jingdong (200 billion), Tmall (400 billion), Taobao (800 billion), but catching up with the size of their company is only a matter of time. We will exceed 10000 billion in 10 years.

And I think, in the long run,

It should be the most important industry of mankind in the future.

"

The following is the speech:

Everyone, Ctrip's little friend, happy New Year! I wish you all a happy new year, a happier life, a happier job and a happier family.

Thank you again for your hard work over the past year. We share a "science fiction economics" topic on the first day of the Spring Festival and practice our imagination.

Robots, population and tourism.

People often contradict my view that "children are talented and good".

Where do you need so many people to work in the future? For example, a few years later, robots are allowed to live. Even the care of the elderly can be done by robots.

At that time, the average life expectancy was over 100 years old, and everything was cheap. The only luxury item was long distance travel.

Why do we have a bigger share of tourism consumption in the future economy? We can see the annexed article "why tourism will be the most promising industry"?

We make a simple economic model: suppose that every person's daily consumption (including food, use, education, etc.) requires an average of 1 robots to provide, and each old man needs 1 additional robots to care for and care for.

Young people's main job is to engage in robot related management (including research and development, production, maintenance, etc.), each young man can manage 10 robots.

Robots undertake two kinds of tasks: one is to maintain people's daily consumption, the other is to engage in tourism. Tourism robots are not only drivers and guides, but also the production and maintenance of aircraft, hotels, spaceships, Angkasa Hotel, and so on. The robot is responsible for the maintenance of the daily life of the robot. The robot is responsible for the maintenance of the daily life of the robot. The robot is also the driver of the tourism industry. It also includes the production and maintenance of the aircraft, the hotel, the spaceship, the Angkasa Hotel and so on.

Suppose there were two in the world at that time.

There are 1 billion elderly people in the white country, "Bai Guo" and "Qing Guo". There are only 500 million young people and 500 million children, with a total population of 2 billion.

Then the white country's daily consumption needs (20+10=30) 3 billion robots, these robots need 300 million young people to manage.

The remaining (5-3=2) 200 million young people engaged in tourism (tourism, including space tourism), can manage 2 billion travel robots, provide 2 billion people with tourism services, then white country per capita can use 1 traveling robots.

In another country, there were quite a lot of young people in Qing Dynasty. There were 1 billion elderly people, 1 billion young people and 1 billion children, a total of 3 billion people.

So 30+10=40 needs 4 billion robots, which need 400 million young people to manage.

(10-4=6) 600 million of the young people in the tourism industry, can manage 6 billion tourism robots, provide 3 billion people with tourism services, then the per capita use of 2 green tourism robot, two times the white people.

Therefore, the average tourism consumption of the Qing people is two times that of the white people, and the total tourism scale is 3 times that of the white ones.

From the above example, we can see that there are so many old people that more young people are needed to manage the robots that are used to care for the elderly.

If we use tourism consumption to measure the quality of life, aging will lead to a decline in the quality of life. Now, this is also true in the robotics era.

In addition, as the number of people dying per year is greater than that of many people in the white country, the annual demand decline and the economic shrinkage will lead to a large number of robots losing their jobs. So the demand for new robots is almost entirely from the Qing Kingdom, coupled with the large number of young working people in the Qing Dynasty. Therefore, the development and use of new robots will lead a lot ahead of the white countries.

To sum up, many young people are not only richer, but also developing faster.

If GDP is calculated, the tourism industry accounts for 40% of the GDP of the white country, while 60% of the GDP of the Qing Dynasty is tourism, much higher than that of the white country!

Finally, science fiction assumes that Bai Guoqing is a different intelligent species living on two planets.

From a historical point of view, the level of civilization can be measured by the distance of tourism (or the scale of Tourism). The total number of tourists in the Qing Dynasty is 3 times that of the white country, so it must go further and have a higher level of civilization.

If two unfamiliar civilizations meet in space, it must have been the first time that the Qing Dynasty discovered the white state.

Annex article "why tourism will be the most promising industry"?

Recently, in several internal speeches, I indicated that the 120 billion scale of Ctrip is far behind Jingdong (200 billion), Tmall (400 billion), Taobao (800 billion), but catching up with the size of their company is only a matter of time. We will exceed 10000 billion in 10 years.

I also believe that tourism should be the most important industry of mankind in the longer term.

This conclusion sounds exaggerated, but let me use economic and philosophical theories to analyze it.

The proportion of tourism in GDP is still very small, which accounts for only 3% of China's tourism.

But this proportion is growing rapidly.

In developed countries, tourism accounts for several times the proportion of China, and manufacturing accounts for less than 30%.

By contrast, the share of tourism is rising.

Behind this is a profound economic reason.

Let's analyze the two attributes of commodities.

The first attribute is the degree of technological influence.

The fundamental driving force of human economic development is technological progress. With the progress of technology, all kinds of services and products are becoming cheaper and cheaper.

But the speed of cheap is different.

Some commodities, such as electronic products, are very cheap, and the prices of some products, such as air tickets and hotels, are dropping very slowly.

In recent decades, due to the rapid development of human technology, many things in the world will become cheaper quickly.

However, due to physical limitations, it will not be as fast and cheap as electronic products.

Another attribute of commodities is the change in the proportion of consumption.

After some tools are cheaper, people's consumption will decrease, such as food, clothes, and basic needs.

However, after some goods and services are cheaper, the proportion of people's consumption increases, such as entertainment and tourism, because these are all to meet the higher level requirements of human beings, and people will spend more money to consume these products.

Therefore, according to these two attributes, goods and services can be divided into four categories:

Slowly and cheaply, the proportion has been reduced, such as some artificial services, such as lawyers, housing intermediaries, etc.

Fast and cheap, accounting for a drop in the proportion of all kinds of tool products are such categories, such as television, computers, cell phones and so on.

Fast and cheap, accounting for an increase, all entertainment is like this.

Now watching videos, playing games is much cheaper than before, but the overall size of these virtual industries is growing.

Slow and cheap, accounting for an increase in tourism.

For enterprises, the declining industry is obviously not a very attractive industry.

Fast, cheap but rising industries must be very active industries such as games and film and television industry.

But this virtual industry has no inventory and the marginal cost of distribution is zero, so the value of the platform is limited.

As a content provider, it is often difficult to form a long-term competitive barrier.

Therefore, it is difficult for these industries to form large companies.

The best industry is industries that are slow but cheap, but the proportion of consumption is rising, such as tourism.

Why travel is special, because most of the products that satisfy human spiritual needs are virtual information products, such as entertainment and games, which can be copied at zero cost with computers and the Internet. The so-called marginal cost is zero.

But tourism is an exception. It is a high level spiritual demand, but it is not a virtual product. It can not be very cheap.

In the long run, after the highly developed human civilization, it is easy for people to get all the goods. The only thing that is hard to overcome is space and time.

But human yearning for time and space is endless.

Even if our plane can be speeded up a hundred times, people will travel to outer space.

If people can live for one thousand years, they will spend 900 years in different places.

In the future, when human basic needs are satisfied, people will spend money mainly on mental consumption.

Spiritual consumption is nothing more than reading, watching movies, playing games and other information consumption, and tourism.

Although there are more and more people who want to read ten thousand volumes of books and play 10000 kinds of games, every book and every game will become very cheap and competitive for enterprises.

In contrast, tens of thousands of miles, especially the value of tourism platforms, will become more and more valuable.

Moreover, from the perspective of human progress, the meaning of miles is greater than reading thousands of books and playing games.

Because human beings are only satisfied with entertaining themselves at home and indulging in the virtual spiritual world instead of exploring the external objective world, the development of human civilization has stagnated.

To sum up, the tourism industry is the most promising industry. First, tourism is a high level spiritual demand. Second, unlike the marginal cost of virtual information industry, tourism is an entity industry, and the value of tourism platform companies is huge.

So I feel very lucky to choose this industry as a lifelong career ten years ago. I am lucky to have worked with you two years ago to create brilliant results.