Xinjiang's Market Is A Blow.

It is understood that although most of the cotton mills and cotton traders in the mainland are still on holiday, genuine enquiries and purchases will take place after the fifteen month of the first month. But during the Spring Festival, the ICE futures market dropped sharply, and the impact of Zhengzhou, electronic matching on the first half of February and the expected increase of the national cotton storage and sale of cotton wheels were getting more and more intense.

Since February 14th, a small number of large and medium-sized cotton traders have tentatively quoted prices, which has been reduced by 100-200 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival. The decline of Xinjiang cotton with low grade and poor quality is slightly larger. The 2128B, 2129B grade (including 3128B, fracture strength 28CN and above) is still on the top of the 13000 yuan / ton for the gross inspection of gross domestic product, but the price of 2128C2 and 3128C2 falls below 12800 yuan / ton.

Recently, the ICE main contract fell below 60 cents / pound, 2015/16

Brazil cotton, Ukrainian cotton and medium and high grade West African cotton have already made obvious sales to Xinjiang cotton.

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On the premise of dropping the store in 2016, the cotton grade, quality and bidding price of the cotton turned out to be more concerned by Xinjiang cotton enterprises. Spinning the cotton yarn of C40S and above will become the main condition to measure the impact of the cotton rotation on the cotton price.

Some local cotton enterprises said that from late January to mid February, they were affected by the tight pport capacity of spring pportation, the defaults of warehouses, the lowering of snowfall and the increase of freight costs.

The difference between the price of lint and the sale of lint inside and outside the territory has dropped to 200-300 yuan / ton, which is also an important reason for the low willingness of cotton enterprises and cotton operators to move to the warehouse.

As for the trend of Xinjiang cotton after the festival, cotton enterprises generally believe that Zhengzhou does not have the role of weathervane. The difference between high and low grade lint will be raised to 500 yuan / ton again.

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It is understood that due to market lint price and quality reasons, the domestic cotton planting income in 2015 has declined, resulting in cotton farmers' enthusiasm to reduce cotton planting, and cotton farmers' willingness to replant more strongly. In the year of 2016, cotton production in China will continue to decrease.

According to the survey of cotton production cost and income of Xinjiang autonomous region development and Reform Commission in 2015, cotton production in Xinjiang showed a decline in production per mu, a slight increase in production costs, a decline in purchasing prices and a decline in yields.

In 2015, the average yield of cotton in Xinjiang was 108.21 kg, a decrease of 14.13 kg compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 11.55%; the average cost of cotton per mu was 2119.55 yuan, an increase of 8.33 yuan compared with that of the previous year, an increase of 0.39%; the output value of cotton per mu was 1468.92 yuan, a decrease of 382.26 yuan compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 20.65%; net profit per mu decreased by 357.73 yuan compared with the same period (including subsidized income, and the subsidy income was temporarily calculated by 444.39 yuan / mu in 2014), with a decrease of 382.26.

The mainland cotton is less than Xinjiang cotton in terms of output, quality, price and subsidy, so the income of cotton growers in the mainland is much lower than that in Xinjiang (in 2014, the amount of cotton subsidy granted by mainland cotton farmers was less than half of that of Xinjiang cotton growers).

According to the national cotton market monitoring system in late November 2015, the national cotton planting intentions showed that in 2016, the national cotton planting area reached 47 million 500 thousand mu, a decrease of 3 million 688 thousand mu compared with that of the previous year, with a drop of 7.2%.

According to its output survey, in 2015, the cotton planting area in China was 51 million 188 thousand mu, and its output was expected to be 5 million 216 thousand tons.

According to this calculation, the cotton output in 2016 will probably be around 4 million 800 thousand tons.

Affected by the continuous decline of domestic cotton yield in recent two years, cotton growers in the mainland and Xinjiang have gradually changed their traditional planting structure.

For example, Xinjiang has gradually reduced cotton production and encouraged cotton farmers to expand their grain, vegetables, medicinal materials and fruit industry.

As a large cotton producing area, Hami's Daquan Bay Township has a per capita annual income of over 10 thousand yuan, but as the market changes, local cotton farmers are looking at Chinese herbal medicines.

In 2016, the national cotton production reduction is the trend of the times. However, due to the limited reduction and the impact of dumping and storage factors, it is expected that the reduction will not play a big role in boosting market prices.