China'S Economic Growth Is Forecast To Be 6.4% In 2016.

Song Yu, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that China's economic growth rate will be 6.4% in 2016, and wages, employment and consumption may be impacted. But he also said there was no need to panic, because policymakers had ample room to support economic growth, and they could also release new growth drivers.

He himself did not hold a negative view of China's economic prospects and did not agree with the argument that "China's economy will collapse". The direction of China's economy is no problem, and it is in the controllable range as a whole.

He said, "the leadership can have done more, but they have" retained the ammunition ", which is very important. They hope to leave some ammunition to prevent the risk of extreme tail risk.

China's GDP growth rate was 6.9% in the 2015 year, the lowest since 1990. At the end of last year, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out that the average annual growth of the economy from 2016 to 2020 was 6.5% above the 13th Five-Year plan.

At the forthcoming two sessions, high-level Expressions related to this year's economic growth have attracted much attention. At the end of last month, Reuters quoted sources as saying that policymakers were uncertain about the outlook for economic growth and expected to see the economy this year. Growth target Set in the 6.5-7% range, this is China's first set of economic growth target interval.

Under the pressure of steady growth, observers say that a series of policies and measures have been introduced recently.

At the executive meeting of the State Council on the first day after the Spring Festival holiday, Premier Li Keqiang stressed that the global economy, especially the sharp drop in the stock market, brought great challenges and new uncertainties to the Chinese economy. Once the economy really slips out of a reasonable range, it will be decisive when it comes out.

Eight ministries and commissions such as the central bank issued a document on Tuesday to strengthen financial support for industry. Economic observation reported that the eight ministries and commissions such as the central bank issued heavy messages and the credit scale of January surged by two signals, meaning that in 2016 less than two months, China's monetary policy has undergone major changes. The whole year's monetary policy will be "very loose" and the overall money supply will be greatly improved.

In terms of the 2 trillion and 510 billion day credit problem, Caixin quoted a city commercial bank as saying that loans are mainly invested in real estate 20%, productive enterprises 30% and government projects 50%, among which government projects include debt replacement, which accounts for about 10% of the total. According to its disclosure, there are now government projects that use government credit and a multi-party financing project. "The government is adding leverage."

The IMF study shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is close to its fair value. UBS estimates that the real effective exchange rate of RMB is only overvalued by 5-10%.

Estimating bad debt losses should be based on bad credit rather than banking system. Assets The actual estimate is much lower than the "$3 trillion and 500 billion scale of bad debts" in the extreme view.

although Economic growth It will continue to slow down and the corporate sector balance sheet will continue to deteriorate. However, the domestic savings rate is high, the banking system is mobile enough, and most banks and their creditors have a high proportion of state holding, and there is still capital control. The possibility of a systemic financial crisis in the near future is very small.

According to Peng Bo, the NDRC has arranged a special construction fund of 400 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year. This year, the special construction fund plan will be arranged quarterly. In contrast, in 2015, the national development and Reform Commission arranged 4 batches of special construction funds, totaling 800 billion yuan.

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the State Council is considering reducing the provision of bad debts for banks. At present, the provision coverage rate of banks stipulated by China is 150%, and some large banks have used the bad debt coverage rate of 120% to make the 2016 budget. On Wednesday, Caixin confirmed that regulators were considering reducing the provision coverage of bad debts in banks. Banks hope to reduce to 100%-120%.

In addition, for some extreme bearish Chinese investors who expect China's banking system and the RMB exchange rate to collapse soon, Wang Tao, a strategic economist at UBS and strategic analyst Gao Ting, pointed out in the Research Report: