Tan Haojun: Promoting Bull Market Is Very Important.

We should expand the scale of direct financing, raise the proportion of direct financing, reduce the dependence of enterprises on banks and rely on high financing cost funds.

This further tells us how important it is to maintain the stability of the stock market. It is probably more important and urgent to push the stock market to "bull" than ever before.

In February 16th, the financial statistics released by the people's Bank of China showed that in January, new RMB loans were 2 trillion and 510 billion, up from 890 billion in January 2009, a record high.

It is expected that this record will remain for quite some time before it can be broken.

We need to know that the 890 billion new loan in January 2009 is after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the 4 trillion investment policy and the overall relaxation of monetary policy are under the background.

The current situation is that although the downward pressure on the economy is still great, but because of the depreciation of the exchange rate and massive capital outflow, there is no comprehensive monetary easing policy.

Under such circumstances, credit blowout is really hard to understand.

It should be noted that despite the recent record breaking credit market in January, many people felt relaxed about monetary policy, and even thought that the new loans this year might break the new record that had just been set up last year, more than 12 trillion or even more.

The author believes that such an idea is not very practical.

The "blowout" of credit in January is not completely comparable.

First of all, no loan to deposit ratio constraint may be one of the factors that cause credit blowout.

Before the abolition of the loan to deposit ratio, banks will often be constrained by the loan to deposit ratio when they put in credit funds, so they can not put in credit funds according to the needs of enterprises.

Therefore, how to determine the scale of credit funds and the level of new credit funds will be effectively controlled under the constraint of loan to deposit ratio.

As long as we do not relax monetary policy, even if the demand for capital is strong, the new credit capital will hardly increase.

After the abolition of the loan to deposit ratio, the "freedom" of new credit funds will be much higher. As long as there is no risk, credit funds will not be subject to too many restrictions and restrictions.

Naturally, there will be a "blowout" of credit in the case of strong demand for capital in January.

This is not quite comparable.

Second, under the background of the depreciation of exchange rate, the reduction of foreign exchange liabilities is also one of the main factors that cause credit blowout.

In the face of the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, enterprises in order to defuse the exchange rate risk and reduce exchange rate losses, they settle accounts payable foreign exchange liabilities and reduce foreign exchange liabilities.

According to statistics, foreign exchange loans in January were reduced by 172 billion 700 million yuan, and most of them were converted into RMB loans, which promoted the expansion of RMB loan scale and formed a credit blowout.

Since this phenomenon is mostly one-off, and with the gradual stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, the conditions and incentives for enterprises to reduce foreign exchange liabilities have begun to decline. There will be no such phenomenon as the massive reduction of foreign exchange liabilities in January.

Then it will be difficult to have a big impact on the scale of credit funds.

Therefore, from this point of view, credit blowout in January is also not quite comparable, and the factors that will reduce foreign exchange liabilities will gradually withdraw.

Once RMB

Stability and increased demand for foreign exchange may also have a negative impact on Renminbi loans.

Moreover, there may be some new changes in the medium and long-term loans of enterprises.

Data show that in January, the scale of medium and long-term loans increased by 1 trillion and 60 billion, accounting for 40% of all new credit funds.

From the perspective of the structure of medium and long term loans of new enterprises, the government platform companies and development enterprises account for a large proportion. In addition, with the capital demand of the government's major infrastructure projects, the large increase in the loan scale of the new growth period in January may not be reasonable in structure.

Obviously, this is not in harmony with the "five tasks" put forward by the central economic work conference, and is not conducive to structural reform on the supply side.

Therefore, the medium and long term loans of new loans in January are not comparable.

How to expand the support of credit funds for real enterprises will be the core issue and the most urgent issue in the next step, according to the requirements of the eight departments recently issued on the financial support for steady growth of industrial structure and increasing efficiency.

It is worth noting that while the "blowout" of credit is at the same time, the broad currency (M2) appears to be more robust. In January, the growth rate of M2 was only 14%, lower than that of the narrow sense M1 (M1).

The main reason is to make up for the gap left by foreign exchange reduction and capital outflow and avoid the market.

There are serious problems.

It should be said that at this level, the comparability is not very strong.

With the gradual stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and the gradual stabilization of China's economy, the phenomenon of capital outflow will be effectively changed.

Then, there is no need to make up for the gap between foreign exchange reduction and capital outflow through credit capital, and we can determine the speed and intensity of credit capital investment according to the law of economic development and the demand of enterprises for capital.

This also means that the credit fund in January is only a special case under special circumstances, and it can not be used to judge the trend of policy in terms of scale.

Moreover, some

After the expiration, the new credit funds will return to the banks, plus seasonal factors, and credit will return to normal.

At present, it is more difficult to balance that monetary policy should be looser according to the economic and enterprise operation. It is necessary to introduce a policy of lowering interest rates as soon as possible, so as to ease the contradiction between capital constraints and reduce the financing cost of enterprises.

However, if monetary policy is too loose, the phenomenon of capital outflow will be more serious, which makes the role of the policy difficult to be effectively played.

To change this situation, the most effective way is to speed up the development of capital market, expand the scale of direct financing, increase the proportion of direct financing, reduce the dependence of enterprises on banks and rely on high financing cost funds.

This further tells us how important it is to maintain the stability of the stock market. It is probably more important and urgent to push the stock market to "bull" than ever before.