Interpretation Of The Stock Market: We Need To Recognize The Nature Of The Current Rally.

The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a 2638.30 low point, becoming the current low level of adjustment.

However, after a week long holiday after the Spring Festival, the A shares after the festival showed a continuous upward trend.

As of February 18th this year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.60% after the holiday, reaching 4.58% after the Shenzhen stock market.

However, the opening performance of the post holiday market is out of the expectation of the market.

In fact, there are several factors that support the current market rebound from internal and external factors.

First, the peripheral market presents a situation of first low and then warmer, creating a better external market environment for the stock market to rebound after the festival.

Second, the impact of factors such as the sharp rise in offshore renminbi during the long holidays during the Spring Festival started when the renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar rose at the beginning of the first 05 days of the exchange rate reform.

With the stability of the exchange rate market, it is easy to pmit this stable factor to the domestic stock market, which has made the stock market pick up after the festival.

Third, the central bank's monetary relief means strong, of which 16 yuan in January, the new RMB loans reached 2 trillion and 510 billion.

At the same time, M1 and M2 grew by 18.6% and 14% respectively, and the expected data report also triggered the anticipation of currency drain and even became the trigger for the stock market rally after the holiday.

For the current A stock market, the market is still relatively fragile, and the sustained recovery of the stock market requires not only the support of external force, but also the strong support of the continuous stability of the internal market environment.

Obviously, for the A share market with "serious illness first", investment confidence still needs a gradual process of repair. At this point, if the rebound market is seen as a big reversal market, perhaps the timing is not mature enough.

Up to now, A shares once again rose to 2850 points, and once again returned to 2850 to 3000 points within the operating area, which also means that the operation of the market has been stepped up.

However, in view of the above reasons for supporting the recent stock market rise, it may still need further verification.

In other words, we should not be optimistic about the market outlook because some of the expected monthly data are also optimistic.

In view of the third factors, the A share market has formed a long-term dependence on monetary policy for many years.

However, the latest data show that the core data such as M1 and M2 have exceeded expectations.

However, in the current market experienced the process of "deleveraging" and "de foaming", combined with the spectacular structural reforms on the supply side, in fact, it implied that the possibility of monetary policy easing again was not large.

Thus, in view of the current expected performance of monetary data, in fact, it should not be read too much, and the current economy "

The risk is not to be underestimated.

It is worth noting that great changes have taken place in the current market environment.

Among them, the market environment "from cattle to bear".

The nature of the rise is quite different.

Generally speaking, from the perspective of market technology, the half line is used as the bull and bear line of the stock market.

But at the same time, many investors are keen to take the annual line as a reference index for the ox bear dividing line.

However, for the current market, it is almost useless to use half line or the annual line as reference for the dividing line.

The reason is precisely because the stock market has been completely caught in the bear market, ordinary investors have been unable to use bull market thinking to analyze the current rising market.

In fact, in the bear market, its resilience will be significantly weaker and even show signs of a weaker rebound.

At the same time, for the current market, the "minefield" below the 3000 point has not yet come out.

However, for the exhausted A share market, the longer the running time is below the 3000 point, the easier it will be to trigger more systemic risks. And whether the stock market can go out of the minefield need not only the external force to push forward, but also the strong internal support for the sustained and stable environment.

Moreover, the stock market is still inseparable from the stock market as the dominant market environment. The new liquidity influx is not enough to trigger the bull market again.

In fact, for the A share market, after the vigorous and vigorous process of "deleveraging" and "de foaming", the market has basically released more bubbles, and the market has basically completed the goal of value return.

But for the present

Basically, it is in a state of "recovery from serious illness". At this point, the market will restart the bull market again. It may be necessary to re activate the influx of new liquidity and even reactivate the highly leveraged tools previously cleared.

Obviously, such an approach has run counter to the will of the upper class.

Perhaps, for the current A stock market dominated by stock funds, it will be a better result to maintain the upward trend.