China'S Economy Is Expected To Bottom Up In The L Shape Adjustment.

"2016

It is hoped that the L will start to hit the bottom and stabilize in the adjustment of the L shape. In particular, it should be emphasized that 2016 is not the trend of the V shape rebound, but only the bottom of the type is not touched down.

This comes not only from our confidence in the new economy, but also from the gradual decline of the potential energy of the traditional economy.

Jian Ping, an economics teacher at the National Information Center, said at the first meeting of "financial intelligence BBD new economic index beta" held in March 2nd.

In this regard, he explained with PMI as an example: officially announced

Data, compared to February and January, the total index 49.4% fell to 49%, is still continuing downward.

If we look at the relatively leading two indicators, we find that the rebound is obvious, one is the purchase price of the raw materials of enterprises. Compared to February and January, the price index rebounded significantly, from 45.1% in January to 50.2%. The second is that although the production of the current enterprises is still relatively stable, even the order index is still declining, but it represents the entrepreneur's expected production expectation index, which is 44.4% in January and 57.9% in February.

Speaking of "financial intelligence BBD new economy index", Fan Jianping thinks that it has made good use of it.

The advantages reflect economic changes, which is a good complement to the statistical method to depict the trend of the economy. It is very important for us to judge the future trend of China's economy.

"2016 is a year of hope, and this year it is likely to end 5 or 6 years of slow down adjustment and slowly begin to approach the bottom."

Fan Jianping said that the next round of China's economic recovery will never enter the next cycle of the economy of the original industry, and the new cycle is definitely driven by the new economy.

Therefore, the key to our country next is not to save these old economies through capacity and stock, but to give new economic sectors more policy support through innovation, so as to make new growth power grow faster.

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In the last trading day, the volatility of the foreign exchange market dropped to its lowest level in 1 months, as the US economic data eased the market's concern about the slowdown in the world's largest economy.

Private reports show that the US grew better than expected last month and raised the possibility of raising interest rates this year.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Williams (John Williams) said that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) March meeting will be released after the interest rate forecast may be slightly different from the version released at the end of last year.

At the same time, Ian Gordon, BOA's foreign exchange strategist, said that the US recession is worried about extinction, China is relatively stable, and oil prices have stabilized. These three macro risks have become more optimistic.

In view of fears that the global economic slowdown will prevent the FED from raising interest rates, the spot dollar exchange rate index of the Bloomberg dollar fell 1.8% in February, and the US dollar in February was the worst since April 2015.

The JP Morgan's Foreign Exchange Volatility Index fell to 11.02%, the lowest level since February 5th.

Although volatility is decreasing, the average volatility this year is still the highest since 2011.