Fund Management: How To Invest In The Rebound Market Skillfully

Whenever the market is going up or down, many people can hardly wait to take part in the rebound.

Indeed, some of the gains from the rally are very tempting.

During the period from December 4, 2012 to February 18, 2013, there was a round of rebound. During this period, the Shanghai composite index increased by 19.21%. If buying and holding a CSI 300ETF index fund, the assets of the foundation will gain 23%.

But I want to remind you that before participating in the rebound, we should first consider the following three questions:

First, whether the rebound market has the value of participation.

You know, not all rebates are worth taking part in.

For example, the market rebounded in March 12, 2014, but the rally lasted for only 20 trading days. During this period, the cumulative index of Shanghai composite index increased by only 8.03%. If the fund was purchased through a counter at the bank counter, there would be little profit after deducting 1.5% subscription fees. Second, the rally was different from that in the bull market. In different sectors of the bull market, some stocks rose first, some rose later, some rose rapidly, and some slowly rose. But after a round of complete market, the foundation would find that most of the shares rose little.

In the rebound market, some varieties are in the leading position. Some varieties are just following. Until the end of a rally, there will always be a significant gap between different types of investment income. Are they clear which funds should be chosen? Third, the rally is only a gradual increase in the bear market.

The end of the market will restore the bear market situation. If the rally ended in February 18, 2013, the Shanghai composite index would continue to shake for four months, and its total decline would reach 23.58% by June 25, 2013.

So how do we deal with these three problems?

First, distinguish whether participation value is from two aspects of market performance and external policy.

Usually, if the previous period experienced a long sharp fall adjustment and coincided with the change of policy, it would be easy to have a larger class rally.

For example, from October 28, 2008 to August 4, 2009, a rally of Shanghai Composite Index has risen to 48.86%, and the reason why the market has been so strong is that it has experienced a longer than one year ahead.

A big bear market with a total decline of 70% has been changed, and monetary control policy has also been changed from the early stage of raising interest rates to lowering interest rates.

In contrast to the rebound that occurred in the market in March 12, 2014, the reasons for its low resilience and low participation were self-evident.

Second, based on past objective performance, it can be obtained in limited time.

Fund varieties.

What kind of fund varieties should we buy in the rebound market? Some experts suggest investing in the consumption industry fund or the active fund that is mainly invested in the relevant stock. The reason is that no matter how the state of the economy changes, people always have to spend. Some experts believe that although the performance of the energy sector, especially the coal industry, has declined all the way, there is a general expectation of the "supply side" reform, so we should choose a resource type industry fund or an active fund that is mainly invested in the stock market.

But facts show that even the expert opinion is not enough to control the performance of the fund, and sometimes there is a big difference.

For example, when the rally started in the 47 calendar days of the 4 calendar year December 2012, the energy industry index rose by 22.53%, while the consumer industry index rose 18.02%, while the financial industry index rose 36%.

The time may be different, and the participants are likely to change, but the financial industry index always plays a prominent role in the rebound, but it is proved by historical data again and again.

Thirdly, according to a variety of technical means, it effectively checks whether the rebound has been terminated.

Mainly include: first, the industry's index rotation speed has significantly accelerated, but the continuity is very poor.

Banks, insurers, brokerages, energy, steel and other major industry indexes have risen in turn, especially when PetroChina and Sinopec have concluded the phase of the horizontal market, and have risen substantially; the two is the ratio of the rise and fall of stocks.

When the foundation found that the number of stocks falling far exceeds the number of home buyers, and has lasted for more than two trading days, we must remain vigilant. This is because the investment earning effect continues to decline, which is bound to significantly reduce the enthusiasm of the OTC capital to enter the market. Three, whether the index of the leading industry in the current round of rebound has experienced a "reverse hammers" shape on the Japanese K-line chart after having experienced the volume upturn; the relationship between the turnover and the index rise and fall has been reduced when the index has risen, and the volume has fallen.