PTA Is Looking For Opportunities At The Bottom Of The Industry Cycle.

In the first quarter of 2016, in the face of such factors as capital side warmer, policy expectation and other factors, petrochemical products went up and went strong, but PTA was relatively small compared with LL, PP and other varieties.

The research system of petrochemical products mainly includes three aspects: macro cycle, industry supply and demand, and industrial chain research. At the same time, we should consider the comparison and valuation of price differences among different varieties, and seek investment opportunities from many factors such as long-term, short-term and market performance.

Judging from the current situation, the peak production capacity has been over in recent years, and the market is overcapacity, since 2012.

The rapid development of production capacity, import dependency from 40% to 2.28% at present, the gap between supply and demand from 7 million tons, to the current serious surplus.

Deterioration, some enterprises choose to stop production.

Judging from the production of polyester in recent three years, the output of 35 million 230 thousand tons in 2015 has reached the peak of history and the growth rate of 9.1% is the highest in the past three years. The average annual growth rate of three is 6.7%. According to historical data, we can make the following assumption for polyester production in 2016.

According to the data released at the beginning of the year, PTA has an effective capacity of 32 million 630 thousand tons at the end of 2015. It is expected that a total of three units will be put into operation in 2016, namely, 220 thousand tons of Hon bond, 4 million 500 thousand tons of Xiang Lu and 1 million tons of Sichuan Shengda, but from the analysis of the current operation, the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang have been opened in March, and the capacity has been expanded to 34 million 830 thousand tons. The Xiang Lu plan has been opened in the first half of the year, but it is more difficult to start from Sichuan.

In March 2015, Far East Petrochemical bankruptcy 3 million 200 thousand tons, all parking, early April

Explosion of Xiang Lu 6 million 150 thousand tons of all parking, plus some of the poor operating capacity, idle or occasionally driving capacity, this part of the total production capacity of 14 million 300 thousand tons, the actual effective production capacity is only 32 million 630 thousand tons.

From the current market analysis, in addition to the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang capacity on line, the remaining two sets of devices on the line is very low, so the output level at 31 million 350 thousand tons probability is larger, and for the 3300-3400 demand forecast, supply and demand will maintain a tight balance in 2016, if we consider the device maintenance and failure and other reasons, PTA tension may aggravate.

In short, the elimination process of PTA industry's backward production capacity is in progress. The duration depends on the speed of excess and capacity and the upgrading of downstream demand.

But it is certain that the backward production capacity of polyester industry is phasing out, which will be accompanied by the rising tide of polyester industry from low point to high point, followed by the price uplift and the enlargement of profit space.