How To See The Real Situation Of The Stock Market?

The core of the stock market is to optimize the allocation of social resources.

Let resources be allocated to the best and most reasonable direction.

Whether positive feedback or negative feedback, we need to take an objective view of the essence behind it.

Questioning is an important part of investment, but objectivity is more important, and it may be more difficult.

Looking back, although most investors are retail investors, A shares have always been feeling a bit of a mess, such as Jin Ya Technology, which should continue to limit their stocks, but there is a turnover of about 10000000 in the first limit.

But from the general direction, A shares seem reasonable and smart.

After 2009 4 trillion, the market thought that the demographic dividend inflection point appeared, and the high credit for investment driven mode is not sustainable.

So began to pform the new economy.

2010-2012 years were basically medicine and consumption, and after 2013 turned to Internet TMT.

From the point of view of resource allocation, it seems that there is no mistake in the big judgement of the market.

I have always said that the mode of gem in the past few years is asset securitization.

A simple explanation is that many small companies regard the A share market as a platform for financing and mergers and acquisitions, constantly financing through the capital market to help them pform, and then enlarge their market value.

Most of the time, I have been sick of this pattern of "empty white wolf".

The market bubble of these companies is huge.

Many of them are not leaders of the industry, but their market value is far higher than their income, and their profits are much higher than those of their companies.

Many years ago, when I went to communicate with the Hong Kong stocks and the real leading companies of the US stock market, the management also laughed at the A brothers' younger brothers and sisters, whose market capitalization was much larger than that of them.

Behind this is the irrationality of the A share market.

Recently, I have reconsidered this question, with some different insights. Of course, as usual, these ideas are not mature.

High technology, especially the Internet industry, is a difficult place to catch up once the gap is opened.

Many Internet Co, because of their different listing sites, have different investors' recognition, which has directly changed their fate.

For example, the storm technology and thunder.

The two companies face bottlenecks from the fundamentals.

Fast speed downloading of thunderbolt is marginalized under the impact of mobile Internet, and more and more 80 and post-90s are paying for the positive content.

The behavior pattern of users has changed from downloading pirated films to watching them, becoming a direct pay view.

Similarly, the storm video player is also facing Iqiyi, Youku potatoes, music as these content source video website impact.

But if we have to choose a better one, it is clear that the number of active users and barriers of thunder is higher than that of the storm.

However, after the demolition of VIE, the storm technology listed on A shares has been a company with a market value of more than 20 billion.

In the big A shares were hit the VR plate leading shares.

Its highest market value exceeds 30 billion.

On the other side, the thunder that chooses to list in the United States has a market value of only more than 400 million dollars.

At one time, the market value of thunderstorm was ten times that of thunder.

On the one hand, the new economy is fanatical enough to give enough bubbles to the A share market, while the other is the US stock market which has grown up with small companies.

On the one hand is the A share market which gives confidence to the management pformation. On the other hand, the US stock market does not agree with the management pformation.

Under this huge difference, there are positive and negative feedback as well.

This is very important.

These management levels are constantly encouraged by the rise in share prices.

Feedback to management is more aggressive and employees are more enthusiastic.

On the contrary, overseas investors do not recognize these small companies.

stay

Transformation is not easy.

What causes thunderbolt is negative feedback.

Time is long.

Market value, manpower and resources are not here.

The gap between thunder and storm is bigger and bigger.

Moreover, the chairman of a 30 billion market capitalization company and the management level of a 3 billion market capitalization company are totally incomparable to the social resources acquired and the acquisition target.

Similar examples include the Kunlun world wide music entertainment games.

Kunlun world wide has completed the gorgeous turn of its main business in A shares.

And the market share and its almost Lok game also face the main business growth and negative feedback from overseas markets.

Today, the market value of the former is close to 40 billion yuan, while the latter's market value in the US is only 3 billion 400 million yuan.

The same is ten times the gap.

I think that's why a lot of stocks want to return.

The most important thing for Internet Co is card position, traffic card, brand card and market value card.

Once the market value is greatly surpassed by its competitors, a large number of mergers and acquisitions, integration and even good talents can be made based on market capitalization.

And storm technology has set a good example.

Even the giant network recently returned, Focus Media has also been recognized by the capital market.

At the same time, most mobile

In the past few years, companies are facing more or less bottlenecks in growth (such as the flow of Qihoo mobile terminals, the growth beyond YY music business, the bottleneck of jumei.com's electricity penetration, and the problem of cash flow capacity).

Through the return of A shares, we have completed the two undertaking and pformation so that we will not be eliminated in this wave.

Back to the beginning, I once thought it was a bubble.

The market value of A shares of pseudo Internet Co is close to or even surpassing those of true Internet Co.

Asset securitization is essentially a capital game of "beating the drum and spreading flowers".

However, recent reflection has convinced me that the market is actually making the best allocation of resources.

Because of the bubble in the two tier market, the equity value of the primary market has been driven, leading to the start-up of new technologies and the Internet.

So that excellent people, social resources and capital will enter the new economy.

From this perspective, this bubble is good and promotes economic pformation.

From this perspective, asset securitization has promoted a benign bubble in the past three years.

Similar to the Internet bubble of the United States, the development of the high-tech sector in the United States has been promoted.

On the contrary, those who destroy valuable assets will not be benign once they get the bubble.

For example, if an airline with a market value of 10 billion has been copied to the market value of 30 billion in the bubble, the funds it will get after the issuance of the airline is probably just buying the aircraft, which is not good for the economy itself.