The Fed's Rate Hike May Have Been Almost Ruled Out.

Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has been shifting downward in recent April, and the market has experienced a sharp fall in sentiment.

In the past two weeks, the US dollar index has shown signs of stabilizing and stabilizing. This week, the market will usher in interest rate resolutions. Although the Fed's rate hike may have been almost eliminated, the statement is likely to have a positive outlook on the US economic outlook and set a tone for future interest rates.

But with the Federal Reserve's April interest rate meeting approaching, Barclays reports that the dollar should be more patient.

The bank said that the Fed's April interest rate resolution is unlikely to become a catalyst to ignite the dollar's rise.

The statement may be called "risk approaching balance", which will convince investors that the next increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve is possible before September.

But if the Fed's statement is expected to be as normal as expected, will the dollar fall further?

Data released by the CFTC on Friday (April 22nd) showed hedge funds and other large speculators were betting on the depreciation of the US dollar for the first time in more than two years.

Data show that as of April 19th, the dollar's net short positions reached 21567 contracts in the week.

This is since July 2014.

Trading positions against the other 8 major currencies for the first time turned from net to net short.

Japan silver can expand its negative interest rate by the end of April, which can expand the scale of QQE. Monetization debt (Treasury bonds, corporate bonds) will further reduce the cost of social financing, but the Bank of Japan can also stand still and wait until the end of July.

There is still some divergence in the market. The decisive factor in the judgement is whether the Bank of Japan feels the strength of the end of January is enough or not, and the judgement of the time lag of the policy.

The US dollar / yen rose to its highest level in three weeks last Friday (April 22nd) after media reports that the Bank of Japan is considering negative interest rates on lending schemes for financial institutions.

According to Peng Bo's report, if the Bank of Japan decides to further reduce the negative interest rate applicable to some of the funds deposited in the central bank, it may consider adopting the new measures.

The US dollar / yen rose by more than 2% to 111.80 yen, the highest in April 1st.

The US dollar / yen rose 2.6% last week, the biggest weekly increase since the end of October 2014.

The first GDP value of the first quarter of the United States will be announced at 20:30 on Thursday, Beijing time.

Due to the strong U.S. dollar, weak global demand, and a slight rebound in oil prices, it is still depressed. The 1-3 month GDP ring is 0.2% lower than the annual rate.

Omer Esiner, chief market analyst for Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc, said, "if the Bank of Japan implements bank loans,"

Policy, the central bank can further reduce its deposit interest rate in the negative area, and will not adversely affect the country's banks.

This gives the Bank of Japan more room to cut interest rates in the negative territory, so the yen responds.

Bloomberg economist Jamie Murray wrote that in the last week of April, a series of important European economic data will be released, unveiled on Monday by a trusted German economic growth indicator, the German Ifo survey.

Tuesday is relatively light. Wednesday's announcement of the GDP preliminary data will be the key to the prospect of interest rates.

German inflation figures will be released on Thursday.

Friday will be the busiest day of the week, with heavy data coming out of euro zone GDP.

Delaki, the European central bank governor, ignored Germany's ultra loose policy on Thursday.

The criticism, and the oath, "whenever necessary," will use all possible policy tools.

However, in the face of sharp criticism from senior politicians in Germany, he was forced to defend the low interest policy strongly.

But he made a clear message after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged: the drugs were effective, the economy continued to recover, and low inflation continued to rise.

Germany's Ifo confidence index will be tested on Monday.

The Bank of England has indicated that the interest rate will remain unchanged until the end of the referendum of the EU Member States. The country will publish GDP data on Wednesday, the first country to publish the data in G7 this year.

According to DailyFX, data on inflation and unemployment in the euro area will be noted this week.

Although some countries in the eurozone are still beset by the high unemployment rate, the overall unemployment rate in the euro area has dropped to 10.3% of the lowest level since August 2011.

But recent business surveys have hinted that job growth is slowing, so even if the unemployment rate improves, it will be weak.

In addition, the inflation threshold will be released in April this week, and inflation will rise to an even level from the negative level in February in March.