Dumping And Storage Volume Become The Trend Signal Of Cotton Price Trend.

May 9, 2016 and 10, Yongan futures

The industry research team came to the two provinces of Hubei and Hunan in the light of the current cotton industry's concern about throwing and storing, raw material inventory, downstream demand, enterprises using futures tools and warehouse receipts, and visited several leading enterprises in the region.

The current social inventory margin is not large.

The pressure comes mainly from throwing storage.

According to the sample enterprises, after this rise, cotton sales in Xinjiang accelerated in 15/16, and there was little left in the Xinjiang cotton store in the early stage. The current data is about 100 thousand tons.

The unsold part of the mainland cotton is neglected.

If this data is true, then three, 7, 8, 9 consumption will mainly rely on dumping and storage, and the market pressure will be steeper.

In addition, national storage cotton can not form warehouse receipts. In September, it implied some potential possibility, and the impact on the market should be valued.

The other side of the problem is that there is uncertainty in the quantity and direction of the remaining warehouse receipts after May delivery, and the impact on the warehouse receipts in September is temporarily difficult to judge.

From Hunan and Hubei two provinces

According to the situation of enterprises, although the operating rate of cotton spinning enterprises has been roughly 80% in recent months, the number of spindles is difficult to be fully reflected because of the incomplete investigation and sampling.

From the analysis of cotton sales volume of sample enterprises over the years, it is difficult to achieve a relatively large increase in cotton consumption even at 80% operating rate.

The recent production and business activities of small textile enterprises in Xiangyang District of Hubei have not yet been identified in large areas nationwide.

In addition, cotton trade enterprises understand that the recent orders of textile enterprises in the two provinces of Hunan and Hubei are not active, and they are not optimistic about the trend of the textile market in the later stage.

Textile enterprises in two provinces have varying degrees of shortage of funds, slow recovery of goods and difficulties in production and operation.

Tight capital is not only affecting normal production and operation, but also in the face of current dumping.

The cotton enterprises should focus on the combination of futures and Futures and make the best use of certainty opportunities.

From the view of visiting enterprises, there are differences in the system environment of the cotton enterprises using futures tools, with different degrees of utilization, different emphasis and different actual effects.

Entrepreneurs are also struggling to find ways to use futures effectively.

The common view is that risk prevention is the first. Transformation must be carried out in a timely manner.

We should make breakthroughs in the production of warehouse receipts, warehouse receipts financing, auxiliary sales, term combination and deadline operation from the opportunity of finding opportunities, and explore for the pformation and development of enterprises and the development of modern enterprises.

The impact of high cost and high turnover on the price of cotton is still to be observed.

A few days ago, the high increase in the cost of storage may exist because of the helpless factors that Xinjiang cotton could not be pported to the mainland in time. There were also some real worries about the lack of cotton at the later stage and the lack of rice for individual enterprises.

But with the stage completion of the inventory return of textile enterprises, it remains to be observed whether the high turnover will be maintained in the early stage, and the impact on cotton prices will also form a situation of "high paction pressure and small paction pressure".

The volume of dumping and storage has become the trend signal of cotton price trend.