Cotton Price Is Expected To Have Band Correction

From the fundamental point of view, under the background of domestic abandoned storage, the market supply can meet the demand, and there is a band correction expectation of cotton price. Judging from the current auction situation of national reserve, the small upward trend of spot and the international cotton export and sowing situation, the short-term market may still be relatively resistant to decline, and it is not ruled out that there is a trend of high-level repeated consolidation. Overall, at present Cotton price It is possible to operate between 10500-13500 yuan / ton and 12000-13500 yuan / ton. Combined with the recent market themes, the short-term market may still be relatively resilient, with strong support of 12000 yuan / ton and repeated highs. With the process of dumping reserves, the market operation range may move down.

On May 3, the storage of cotton was launched. This year, the storage of cotton will not exceed but not be limited to 2 million tons, which will be determined according to the demand. If only according to the throwing reserves, the amount of 2 million tons can meet the demand for the rest of the year. With the current market stock of about 1.2 million tons, the total supply of about 3.2 million tons can basically meet the demand of the five months before the cotton listing.

during this period, Auction volume All above 98%. According to statistics, as of May 19, the total turnover of reserve cotton was 379686 tons, the total volume of import cotton was 231812 tons, the transaction rate was 100%, and the turnover volume of domestic cotton was 147874 tons, with a transaction rate of 98.42%. In terms of transaction price, the average transaction price on May 3 was 12904 yuan / ton, that on May 17 was 12252 yuan / ton, and on May 23 was 12362 yuan / ton, showing an overall downward trend, but it has rebounded recently. On the one hand, it shows that there is a demand at present, especially the import cotton market demand is obvious, which constitutes a certain support for the market.

But on the other hand, it also shows that the supply is effective, and it also forms pressure expectation on the market. During this period, the market has both ups and downs. With the process of throwing and storing, the sales of imported cotton finished, demand It may cool down to a certain extent, and the market center of gravity may decline to a certain extent, but it is not advisable to overestimate the space for further exploration.

According to the U.S. Department of agriculture's growth report, as of May 22, the U.S. cotton harvest was 46%, higher than 44% in the same period last year, but lower than 54% of the five-year average. Sowing progress is slightly slow, the atmosphere of weather speculation is not large, but it does not rule out certain imagination space. According to the US annual average of 12 million bales of cotton, net cotton sales increased by 83% compared with the average value of 12 million bales of cotton in 2016. In terms of export shipment, as of May 23, the shipment of US cotton exports was 230000 tons, a week-on-year increase of 26%, showing that the periodic demand of American cotton has improved to a certain extent, and there is still a certain support for the short-term market.

A large area of precipitation and cooling weather occurred in Northern Xinjiang of China, which was disadvantageous to the emergence and growth of cotton seedlings in Northern Xinjiang. In the past two weeks, the weather conditions in most cotton areas of Uzbekistan are unstable, and the planting progress is backward. Some areas are facing replanting, but the weather is expected to gradually improve in the follow-up. In addition, the weather in the south of Kazakhstan is also humid, and cotton seedlings are facing a certain degree of replanting.