The New Trend Of RMB Middle Price In Recent Five Years

The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar announced by the Chinese government on the 30th was 6.5784, a sharp decrease of 294 basis points from the previous trading day, and a new low since February 2011. In the face of the approaching federal reserve rate hike process, can the RMB exchange rate be stable? In the view of the mainland brokerage Galaxy Securities, the answer is yes.

Recently, the Fed has been sending out signals to raise interest rates. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in April released earlier, if future economic data show that the US economy is improving, interest rates may be raised in June; on Friday (27th), Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen also changed his previous dove stance, publicly saying that if the US economy and job market Continuing to improve, interest rate hikes in the coming months "will be appropriate.".

As soon as Yellen's hawkish remarks appeared, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates continued to rise. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) federal funds rate futures show that the possibility of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June rose to 34% from 30% before Yellen's speech, while it rose to 62% in July, a record high. Before the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting, the two figures were only 19% and 38% respectively.

Affected by this, the dollar index also soared. On the 27th, the US dollar index closed near 95.75. On the 30th, the index further climbed and reached a recent high of 95.96. Since this month, the U.S. dollar has risen against major currencies including the RMB.

"U.S. economic growth is stronger than expected, the medium term brought about by rising wages Inflationary pressure It is also warming up; low oil prices and a strong US dollar make the inflation environment controllable; the economic data are basically symmetrical with the interest rate increase in the summer, and the stable global financial market and China's economy also make the fed less worried about the future. " According to Tao Dong, managing director of Credit Suisse, Federal Reserve Interest rate hikes are expected to start this summer, with the most likely point moving from September to July.

From the perspective of policy practice, the Central Bank of China has accumulated rich policy practice experience after a series of actions to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at the beginning of this year. At present, the central bank should have sufficient plans to deal with the spillover effect of the Fed's tightening monetary policy. On the whole, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will be more stable in the process of the Federal Reserve's continuing monetary policy normalization.