Hongkong'S Imports Remain High And The RMB Exchange Rate Downward Cycle Overlaps.

The import and export data of Hongkong and the mainland are more sensitive to the import and export of hot money, and abnormal trade data become the scale of capital outflow under false trade.

If the mainland's exports to Hongkong increase exceptions, foreign currency will be exchanged for Renminbi, and the arbitrage interest rate in the mainland will be larger.

If Hongkong's imports from the mainland increase exceptions, it shows that the renminbi is replaced by foreign currencies and the mainland is more vulnerable to devaluation.

According to the data of Hongkong's TDC, Hongkong's trade is not good enough to explain the fluctuation of the data.

Hongkong's exports of goods fell by 5.6% in the first four months of 2015 after falling 1.8%.

In the first quarter of this year, Hongkong's main export markets were the mainland, the European Union, the United States, ASEAN and Japan, which accounted for 53%, 9%, 9%, 8% and 4% of Hongkong's total exports, respectively.

During this period, the annual changes in Hongkong's exports to the above markets were -7.6%, -0.8%, -6.2%, -5.6% and -5.7% respectively.

Exports to the mainland have declined, which can not explain the substantial increase in Hongkong's import to the mainland unless it is explained by capital in and out.

In 2015, 28.5% of Hongkong's total exports to the mainland involved outward processing activities, of which the proportion of exports and pfers was 13.9% and 28.7% respectively.

Hongkong's re exports are not included in the import market, and the mainland accounts for it. 30% of them are less likely to be re exports.

In June 8th, China Customs released data, and imports fell by 0.4% in May, down 6% from expected, while imports dropped 10.9% in April, and May data were much better than April.

China's trade surplus in May was US $50 billion, which was larger than US $45 billion 600 million in April.

This is a declining surplus, exports are declining and imports are falling faster.

The trade figures between Hongkong and the mainland are worth noting.

It may accelerate the outflow.

In dollar terms, China's imports from Hongkong increased by 242.6% over the same period last year. According to the external storage data released in June 7th, the balance of foreign exchange reserves in May was US $3 trillion and 190 billion, down 27 billion 900 million US dollars from last month, which is 3 trillion and 190 billion higher than market expectations, and the balance has reached the lowest level since 2012.

Large scale doubts came from today's January.

At that time, the General Administration of Customs announced that the mainland's exports to Hongkong amounted to US $46 billion in December 2015. The figures released by Hongkong were 23 billion 700 million US dollars and the difference was 22 billion 300 million US dollars.

Some market participants believe that this reflects the rise of false trade for the purpose of arbitrage.

Departments concerned do not recognize this scale.

In February 3rd, at the regular news conference held by the Ministry of Commerce, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the trade figures in December 2015 were basically normal in general.

There are mainly three objective factors which are mainly caused by different statistics, different conversion rates of dollars and end of the year.

In June 3rd,

The latest statistics released by Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau show that between 2016 and April, the volume of trade between the mainland and Hongkong was $90 billion 890 million, down 1.1% from the same period last year, accounting for 8.3% of the total foreign trade volume of the mainland.

Among them, exports from the mainland to Hongkong amounted to US $85 billion 50 million, down 4.7% from the same period last year, and imports from Hongkong amounted to US $5 billion 840 million, up 120.3% over the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, the mainland's exports to Hongkong amounted to US $60 billion 530 million, down 6.5% from the same period last year, and imports from Hongkong amounted to US $3 billion 790 million, up 90.8% over the same period last year.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce last year, the first half of the year is in a normal state. The increase in imports and exports in Hongkong is down compared with the same period last year. The monthly import growth from Hongkong is less than 10%.

Since last July, the situation has changed. Basically, imports are rising and exports are down.

The mainland's exports to Hongkong amounted to US $25 billion 670 million, down 18.9% from the same period last year, down by 3%.

Imports amounted to US $1 billion 180 million, an increase of 13.5% over the same period, a rise of 22.9% over the same period.

In August, when the renminbi fell sharply, it was possible that vigilant funds might enter Hongkong to find a safe haven.

In November, imports increased significantly, and December data sparked widespread suspicion of false trade and hot money entry.

This year, the volatility increased sharply, rising sharply in January compared with the same period in February.

In March, imports from Hongkong amounted to US $1 billion 550 million, an increase of 112.3% over the same period last year, a rise of 162.7% over the same period.

In April, imports from Hongkong amounted to US $2 billion 50 million, up 201.5% from the same period last year, rising by 32.3% over the same period.

With the change of import and export data, foreign exchange reserves have also changed.

The Hongkong Monetary Authority announced that Hongkong's foreign exchange reserves rose steadily. At the end of December last year, the official foreign exchange reserve assets stood at 358 billion 800 million US dollars. By the end of May this year, the official foreign exchange reserve assets amounted to US $360 billion 300 million, equivalent to 7 times that of Hongkong's currency.

Since 2015, foreign exchange reserves in the US dollar have been falling steadily.

From the central bank data, foreign exchange reserves from 3 trillion and 500 billion US dollars to 3 trillion and 400 billion US dollars were in November last year, to 3 trillion and 300 billion US dollars in December.

The import and export of Hongkong to the mainland can not fully explain the changes in foreign exchange reserves, and other factors such as exchange rate pricing. However, in the absence of sufficient and clear data, long-term observation of the import and export data of the mainland of Hongkong plays a very important role in understanding the essence of the mainland economy, water and investor sentiment.