The Hot Topic Of China'S Economic Downturn

Domestic stock markets fell and bond markets soared.

According to the BBC count count, the number of people who support Europe is over half, the European support rate is 51.8%, and the European support rate is 48.2%.

Global stock markets fell, sterling plummeted and gold spot prices rose to 7.8%.

For this, we commented as follows:

(1) Britain and the European Union loudly say goodbye. The "off Europe" incident has exceeded market expectations, triggering a sharp shake up in the capital market.

On the eve of the referendum in Britain, the global stock market rose generally, and the S & P 500 rose 1.3%, the biggest gain in a month; European shares rose 1.5%; WTI rose 2% liters and broke 50 US dollars per barrel; the period fell 0.5%.

As of 6 22, the probability of Gambling company's departure from Europe is expected to drop to 25%.

A decrease in probability does not mean that the potential risk of a European event is down.

The result of today's referendum is inconsistent with yesterday's global stock market and Gambling company's implicit expectations, and the capital market will be severely affected.

The Nikkei 225 index fell 7.78%, the Hang Seng index plunged nearly 5%, and HSBC fell 11.3% in Hongkong, the biggest decline in more than 7 years.

Most emerging markets were also hit by a 1.6% decline in Malaysia's stock index, the biggest decline since January.

Pakistan's benchmark stock index fell 1.7%, the biggest decline in January 18th.

The Taiwan stock exchange's weighted index dropped by more than 3%.

Nikkei 225 index futures fell 8.1% in Osaka, triggering fuses.

CBOE VIX index futures rose 62%, the S & P 500 index futures expanded to 5.1%, Dow futures fell 4%, the S & P 500 index futures fell 5%, the UK FTSE index futures fell 9.4%.

Second, "off Europe" stems from the political game before the election.

The British referendum was a political commitment thrown out by Cameron in 2015's difficult election.

Most of the British government officials and elites are supporters of Europe compared with the public's enthusiasm for Euro retreat. According to the BBC survey, only the Conservative Party and the Democratic United Party in the British political party are most enthusiastic about Europe, and the rate of support from Europe among all the members of the political party is only 22.6%.

Against this background, the referendum on Europe is still on the agenda as a result of political gaming.

There are two reasons why the British people want to return to Europe: the European Union's budgetary fees and immigration problems. Despite the negative impact of Europe on the economy and society in several important newspapers and magazines in the UK, IMF has also issued a report suggesting that the potential risk of Britain's departure from Europe to the UK and the EU economy has not yet been able to reverse the referendum results.

The way out after the British referendum is three types of development.

After the victory of Britain's "de Europe" camp will trigger the fiftieth provisions of the Lisbon agreement, Britain will not be able to participate in the EU's decision-making.

At the same time, Britain has been negotiating with the European Union for 2 years. The agreement needs the unanimous agreement or the majority agreement of the member states. There are three possible models for the subsequent development.

The first is to become a member of the European Economic Zone and to enter a single market. The price is to fully comply with the single market rule, to lose the right to participate in the above provisions and other matters, to continue to pay the budgetary funds to the EU and to accept the rules of free flow of personnel.

The second is the bilateral economic and trade agreement mode. Under this mode, Britain can expand its access to a single market on the basis of future bilateral agreements with the EU, but under this mode, Europe may not accept the British financial services industry to enter the single market.

The third mode is the world trade organization framework. Under this mode, although Britain fully controls economic decisions, it will also lose the right to enter the single market at present.

If the new agreement can not be reached within two years, Britain will automatically lose the right to enter the EU's "single market".

Fourth, the short-term impact of "off Europe" referendum: risk aversion rises, positive.

Europe is expected to be overweight and the Fed will raise interest rates again.

In the short term, gold, treasury bonds, US dollars and Japanese yen will benefit from hedging properties, and the euro and pound will fall sharply.

In the referendum statistical process, gold spot once rose to 7.8%, the biggest increase since 2008.

Another safe haven asset will also be strong.

After the euro referendum, the prices of interest rate bonds and national debt have risen to varying degrees in the medium and long term (7 and 10 years).

The foreign exchange market also fluctuated violently, and the pound fell to 11.2% against the US dollar, reaching a minimum of 1.32.

The euro fell to the lowest level against the US dollar at 4.5%.

The increase is more than 3%, and the appreciation of the Japanese yen is over 6%.

Affected by the rise of the US dollar index, the RMB exchange rate will continue to bear pressure, and there may be a slight depreciation.

The European market is expected to have more than expected adjustments in the world's major capital markets, which will be affected for some time to come.

Spread.

The long and medium term impact of the EU referendum: Europe's fragmentation intensified to combat global trade and economic recovery.

Britain's choice to retreat to Europe will largely accelerate the fragmentation process in Europe.

Britain's referendum is a political "emergency" in the UK, and "off Europe" as a tool for election.

Before the referendum, European sentiment has spread to Europe, and Italy, France, Denmark, Holland and Austria all have anti euro and anti EU voices.

Britain's "de Europe" camp has won a lot of cold water for European integration. If the EU can not solve the immigration problem and the euro zone economy has not recovered, the EU will still be a big problem.

The impact of the referendum of "off Europe" on China: direct impact is not big, chain impact can not be ignored.

Britain is an important trading partner of China, but the volume of trade with the UK accounts for less than 3% of China's total exports. Therefore, off Europe does not constitute a direct impact on China.

But in the long run, off Europe is unfavorable to the EU economy and even the world economy, while the EU is China's largest trading partner, and the EU is also the fourth largest source of real investment in China.

Therefore, the indirect impact of Europe on China's economy can not be ignored.

In our weekly report, we put forward that "the economy will return to the downstream channel and the inflation will come down."

Britain's domestic economic downward pressure from Europe increased to maintain the short-term W and medium term L economy.