"Fourth Quarter PTA Strategy Seminar And Risk Management Forum" Successfully Concluded

The fourth quarter PTA strategy seminar and risk management forum, organized by the Shanghai Mercantile Exchange and merya Futures Limited, has successfully concluded the Tong Mao Hotel in Zhengzhou.

The forum invited many core enterprises and investment companies of PTA industry chain including Hengli Petrochemical Company, Hong Kong Union enterprise and Yihui resources.

The essence of the forum is as follows:

First of all, President Wang Pei has expounded the views on macroeconomics at home and abroad:

1, the medium-term factor of driving exchange rate is asset return.

In the 14 years, the profit of domestic central enterprises began to deteriorate, and eventually the depreciation trend of RMB exchange rate was formed.

This year, the government's push on supply side reform is actually trying to increase the profitability of the stock assets to alleviate the pressure of capital outflow in the medium term.

2, despite the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate hike, expectations for further narrowing of the US interest rate gap are still evident, which will continue to devalue the market.

The central bank once again raised the price of offshore RMB market capital and increased the cost of shorting, but its effect should be gradually reflected in the middle and late 10 months.

3, the increase of RMB devaluation pressure makes the spread of CNY-CNH widen, forming arbitrage space, thus making the pressure of net outflow of capital increasing.

Pressure increasing market will make A share financial sector bear more obvious pressure. On the one hand, heavyweights are more vulnerable to the impact of the overall capital side. On the other hand, capital outflow will also cause investors to worry about the stability of the overall financial system.

4, the renewed stall in the short term of the US economy is an important trigger for the global and emerging market economies.

In the first half of July, the US economic surprise index fell to a high level, and the leading indicators showed that the downward trend lasted until at least the first half of November.

Financial markets characterized by VIX index

It will also rise with the short period of economic weakness.

Zhang said in his speech that in recent years, as the PTA industry chain profits are getting lower and lower, in order to avoid risks, from upstream PTA factories to intermediate traders to downstream polyester factories have been involved in the PTA futures market.

The market spot trade form also changed from the original price to the spot price basis paction.

The fundamental impact of excess capacity leads to PTA futures continuing to rise, and risk free arbitrage opportunities continue to emerge.

The recent changes in the PTA industry are mainly reflected in:

1, futures have more and more influence on spot trading mode, and spot price mode has become the main way.

2, enterprises use PTA futures to conduct business risk management methods more and more mature, more and more flexible, and industry participation is getting higher and higher.

3, forward paper trading has become a new trend.

Forward paper and forward futures contracts are arbitraged.

4, risk-free arbitrage is getting bigger and bigger, and space is getting smaller and smaller.

On how to avoid industry risks, Zhang believes that PTA production enterprises, PTA consumer enterprises and middle traders are facing different risks of procurement and sales. They can avoid risks through current arbitrage and intertemporal arbitrage.

In the actual case, when the PTA base difference is greater than 180, the risk free arbitrage space can be entered into the buying and selling period.

In addition, in the early August 2016, the spread of TA1609 to 1701 widened to more than 210, and the risk free arbitrage space appeared in the cost accounting. It was also a good risk free arbitrage opportunity.

But it should be noted that, first, the PTA warehouse receipt will be strong in September, and September delivery will not be delivered in January.

Secondly, replacement of goods will result in replacement cost.

Moreover, the storage capacity of low-cost delivery repository is also a problem.

From a comprehensive point of view, macroeconomic risks remain at home and abroad in the fourth quarter. We need to see more real economic demand expectations, and empty overseas markets and financial attributes.

PTA the fourth quarter of the material will be at the end of the cost of crude oil first suppressed, Yang, PX wide shocks, PTA device maintenance centralized three factors, the overall trend of gravity lifting.

Pay close attention to PTA's multiple opportunities within the margin of safety and the opportunity to expand TA1701-1705 spread.

Ma made a brilliant speech from the four parts of the global PX supply and demand pattern, the PX Asian market trade overview, the PX market price influence factors and the four quarter market outlook.

1, from the global PX pattern, the PX supply gap is concentrated in Asia, about 4 million 800 thousand tons / year, the gap is basically filled by the Middle East, and a small amount of European and American goods flows into Asia.

And China's PX import dependence is also high.

2, from the PX pattern of Asia, Asia's main PX trade is concentrated in China. The exporting countries are mainly Korea, Japan, and the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The main source of trade flows to Asia is concentrated in China. The exporting countries are mainly Korea, Japan, and the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

The gap of China's PX is around 12 million tons. Korea, Japan and Singapore Thailand are the main exporters.

In 2015, China imported PX to 11 million 650 thousand tons, mainly imported from Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

3, the price of PX is mainly affected by four aspects: raw material price, product supply and demand, downstream market price and profitability.

The correlation coefficient between naphtha and crude oil is 92%, and the correlation coefficient between PX and naphtha is 87%. In 2015, the correlation between PX and naphtha reached 93.5%, but decreased from 2016 to 78 8%.

4, PX's four quarter Outlook:

The fourth quarter PX maintenance loss is estimated to be 284 thousand tons, and the PTA four quarter estimated loss of maintenance is 540 thousand tons. At present, under the condition of Yanda grand maintenance, the 9-11 month PX supply to PTA is relatively loose.

Therefore, the PTA maintenance is relatively concentrated, while the PX centralized maintenance period has passed, and the fourth quarter PX-PTA price gap still exists.

In the late stage, uncertainties increased, and it was reported that Xiang Lu petrochemical company plans to restart a production line in Gure in the quarter of 2017, and Hua Bin's acquisition of Far East matters has been basically finalized. The company plans to restart the Far East PTA device in 2017.