New Cotton Opens The Scale Price To The Market Constitution Support, The Domestic And Foreign Demand Continuity Still Doubts.

Current stage

At the early stage of the listing but not yet on a large scale, with the end of the end of September, the main themes that affect the cotton market are the expected output of new cotton at home and abroad, the progress of harvesting, and the internal and external purchase and sale situation.

New cotton opens the scale price to form the support to the market.

Except for Chen cotton's throwing and storing, the green and yellow handover period will also take place.

Gradually began to pay attention to the new cotton purchase scale, the current stage of seed cotton began to gradually appear on the market, the price of seed cotton in Xinjiang area remained high, and prices continued to rise in some areas. But for the sake of cost considerations, the cotton ginning enterprises have rushed to rush to harvest, and the processing has been going on like a raging fire. At present, the price of seed cotton purchased in Xinjiang is generally around 6.5-7.5 yuan / kg, and the cost of folding cotton is more than 14500-16500 yuan / ton.

The new cotton opening trend is a positive guide to the market, and the new cotton sale in the mainland market is also one day and one price.

National cotton consumption is the main source, new cotton is not enough, and the market dare not be too restless. It is expected to be difficult in the short term and the price is difficult to escape from the lint cost area.

There is still doubt about the sustainability of domestic and foreign demand.

According to the weekly export sales report of the US Department of agriculture, the United States Department of agriculture's weekly export sales report showed that in the week of September 22nd, the United States sold 5 million tons of land cotton in 2016/17, an increase of 61.8% compared to the same period last year, and shipped 1 million 340 thousand packs, an increase of 59.5% over the same period last year. This shows that since the beginning of this year, US cotton exports were very strong in the same period last year, and the main driving force came from Pakistan, China and Vietnam. However, the recent US cotton exports have slowed down, and this support is not sustainable enough.

Recent data show that as of September 22nd, the US cotton export net sales of 90 thousand tons, down 53.8% compared with the same period last year.

Domestically, with the basic docking of cotton price difference between inside and outside, the import of cotton and cotton yarn is restrained. At present, the market mainly consumes domestic cotton, and the consumption is relatively higher. Thus, it promotes the paction of national cotton reserves, almost 100% of the turnover, and also constitutes an effective support for the futures market in the near future, and cotton prices continue to rise.

But at the same time, we also understand that many of the textile enterprises in the national reserve market for stock replenishment basically maintained until November, the subsequent stage of demand will be constrained, the market continues to move high doubts.

Output difference of new production leads to internal strength and external weakness

On the domestic side, the cotton growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yellow River are growing well, with a slight increase in output per unit area and more rain in the Yangtze River Basin. The overall growth of cotton is worse than last year, and the yield per unit area is expected to decrease.

According to the prediction of the China Cotton Association, the total cotton output in 2016 was about 4 million 607 thousand tons, down 4.4% compared to the same period last year, and the output of Xinjiang was about 3 million 608 thousand tons, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 16.8% and 24.8% respectively, while the cotton consumption in China in the 2016 year was about 7 million 230 thousand tons, the annual production demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, the annual export demand gap was 2 million 620 thousand tons, the import of 894 thousand tons was removed, and the remaining amount of cotton needed to be replenished by the reserve cotton wheel. In accordance with the previous storage strategy, the cotton reserve market was the first to be around March next year. During the current period to March next year, especially after the market lost the season of the new flower concentrated listing, the market gap effect will appear, and cotton is expected to rise over the long term.

And domestic cotton market pressure should be mainly concentrated in the four quarter, especially in 10 and November will be presented, this period of supply increases, and the continuity of demand is not enough, the stage of supply and demand pattern has loose expectations, this market adjustment is more reasonable.

At present, for the Sino US cotton boll opening period, its weather conditions affect the supply expectation, and then affect the futures market trend. Up to now, the US cotton bolting rate is 63%, which will end in late October, and the weather during the boll opening period will still have an impact on crops, especially in low temperature and rainy weather.

Judging from the weather, the tropical cyclone "Hermine" landed in northern Florida in the early September. The southeast cotton area was affected by excessive rainfall, unfavorable to boll opening, and thus promoting the disk. However, the impact was obviously reduced.

According to the weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture, by the year September 26th, the excellent and good rate of cotton growth was 48%, which is 2 percentage points lower than that of last year, compared with the previous one, which has been improved over the previous period. The growth rate is 84%, which is basically the same as the same period in previous years. The growth rate is 2 percentage points higher than that in the previous period. Overall, the growth of cotton is generally acceptable and has improved in the early stage of Zhou Chiping.

The following weather is expected to be dry in the US cotton producing area, which is conducive to cotton bolting and picking, lack of kinetic energy in market speculation and insufficient market demand. In this case, the increase in output caused by the increase in US cotton planting area is expected to have some response on the disk, and the US cotton market is expected to have some stage pressure.

It is understood that in September, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report shows that the 2016/17 cotton planting area, yield per unit area and output are expected to rise over the same period last year. The planting area is expected to be 10 million 150 thousand acres, down 18.3% from the same period last year. The yield per unit area is 802 pounds / acre, an increase of 4.7% over the same period last year. The output is expected to increase by 16 million 140 thousand bags, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year, indicating that the expected increase in cotton production in the United States is still strong, and the market is still under pressure, especially when the current weather is good, picking forward and insufficient demand kinetic energy, the market pressure has increased significantly.