New Year'S Market Situation Analysis And Exchange Meeting Will Be Held Smoothly Everywhere.

Under the global economic slump and the negative interest rate pattern of major economies, the so-called conventional understanding is facing challenges: the economic downturn is not necessarily the same as the trend of commodity futures market downturn.

Vigilance against liquidity

And other resource goods whirlwind "invasion".

The central storage cotton information center and the national cotton market monitoring system held a new annual market situation analysis and exchange meeting in Shandong Dezhou, Jiangsu Xuzhou, Anhui Anqing, Hubei Xiangyang and Henan Zhengzhou tour organization respectively. Over 500 participants from cotton, textile, Futures Company and other enterprises from the Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou, post, import, export, import, export, import and export sectors participated in this meeting to discuss the new cotton market situation in the new year.

China's cotton net finishing speech guest view, for the industry to explore.

Feng Mengxiao, chief economist of China cotton storage information center, started from the global and Chinese economic situation, analyzed the bulk commodity market, and comprehensively considered the supply and demand of the cotton textile industry chain, and put forward the views on the cotton market in 2016.

Feng pointed out that from the data, the global economy is sluggish and the prospects are bleak.

In 2016, the actual GDP in the first two quarters of the United States increased by 1.2% on an annual basis, and the initial value of PMI in Markit manufacturing in September was 51.4, which was lower than market expectations. In September, the initial value of the comprehensive PMI in the euro area dropped to 52.6, the lowest in January 2015, and the growth rate in September was close to 2 years low.

In addition to poor data in the US and eurozone,

The figures released in early August show that trade growth in 2016 is expected to be 2.8%, and the growth rate in 2015 will be reduced from 2.8% to 2.7%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the global economic outlook for the fifth time in 15 months. It is estimated that the world economic growth rate will be 3.1% in 2016, and warned that the world economic growth rate could be slowed down to 2.8% by the UK's withdrawal from Europe.

The OECD lowered its global economic growth forecast in 2016 from 3% in June to 2.9%, and reduced the global economic growth forecast in 2017 from 3.3% in June to 3.2%.

A recent study by the China World Trade Center hair Association warned that the global economy is at risk of the spread of debt default.

At the same time, China's economic growth is slowing down and the pressure is increasing.

In the two quarter, China's economic growth rate was 6.7%, falling to a 26 year low. In 1-8 months, the profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 8.4% over the same period last year. Feng Zong stressed that the textile industry grew 5.8% in 1-8 months, but the growth rate decreased by 0.3% compared with that in 1-7 months.

On the whole, China's economic growth is still declining and tends to bottom. But the domestic economic situation may be more difficult in the next two years.

Feng Zong believes that when the external economy is running mediocrity, the main economies are weak in investment and export growth, the major global central banks have not stopped at zero interest rates and quantitative easing monetary policy, but slide into "

Cycle ".

At present, the global negative rate of government bonds has reached US $13 trillion, more than two times that of 2015, and almost no negative yield bonds in the middle of 2014.

Under the stimulation of long-term bond buying and low interest rate policy, the global labor productivity has been increasing slowly, showing the "crowding out effect" of financial entities.

Rising global asset volatility and rising financial systemic risk will become an inevitable trend.

From the supply and demand of cotton spinning industry chain, demand for textile and clothing is sluggish, exports decline and domestic demand slows down. On the supply side, 2015/2016 cotton reserves are coming to an end, and the new cotton scale will be on the market soon. In the 2000 years since the price trend of cotton spot market in China in the year, the decline of cotton prices in October is more common and the decline is generally 1.55-7.63%.

Economy and commodity: half of it is seawater and half of it is fire. The slow growth of the economy is accompanied by the warming of the commodity market.

Through the above analysis, Feng Zong pointed out that the output of the world's cotton has been bigger than demand since 2008, and stopped in 2015. In 2016, the gap between production and demand expanded. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to be strong in the short term. With the increase of the new cotton market, the downward pressure on cotton prices will gradually appear.

The price of cotton fell unilaterally for 5 consecutive years. It has been reversed in 2015. The 2016 year is the pition year to stock. "Market + national cotton reserves" will work together to maintain the balance of supply and demand. The global supply and demand of cotton will move further towards the balance of supply and demand.

The essence of market competition determines that the real opponent of China's cotton is outer cotton.

Whether the price of domestic ginning plant is safe does not depend on the purchase price of a nearby acquisition enterprise, and the foreign cotton market is the reference for its risk prevention.