There Is No Possibility Of Healthy Cattle Coming In The A Share Market.

Recently, the September and three quarter economic data indicators released by the National Bureau of statistics reflect the good trend of China's economy.

As an investor, first of all, we must have a healthy investment concept, do not have unrealistic fantasies about "bull market", and reduce market expectations.

For the current stock market, the stock market can rise steadily, which is already a good result.

What investors should do is to grasp the opportunity of earning stocks in the current steady and rising market.

Although the GDP in the three quarter was unchanged from the one or two quarter and maintained a 6.7% level, CPI in September rose 1.9%, stopping four for a long time, and PPI grew by 0.1% in September, the first time since March 2012.

Based on this, people in the industry commented on the three quarter economic data that China's economic L inflection point has passed, and that China's stock market is expected to usher in "healthy cattle".

First of all,

It is obviously questionable whether the argument of L inflection point has passed.

China's economic operation can not be U and V, but the trend of L.

The L trend is a phase, not one or two years.

Now only half a year has passed. If the "L inflection point of China's economy has passed" is true, what does it mean for "authoritative people"? Is it necessary for "authoritative personages" to be mixed up at the top level? Therefore, based on the trust of authority, I believe that "authoritative people" are not convinced.

In fact, the argument about "L inflection point of Chinese economy has passed" is indeed somewhat hasty.

Because this statement did not take the property market regulation of the 21 cities in the beginning of this year's national day as a matter of fact.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics in October 21st and the first 70 months of October, the sales prices of the large and medium cities in September were significantly lower than that of the real estate market in October.

Among them, the price of newly built commercial housing in Beijing rose by 1.2% in the first half of October, down 3.7 percentage points from September.

Therefore, it is obviously too early to say that the "L inflection point of China's economy has passed".

Secondly,

In itself, it is not a healthy market. How can such an unhealthy stock market get out of the "healthy cow"? Let alone the saying that the "L inflection point of Chinese economy has passed", it can not be established at present. Even if it can be established, the stock price of A shares at present is also high enough to pass the growth of performance.

As at present

The P / E ratio reached 78 times, and the small and medium board reached 52 times.

This requires a doubling of the performance of listed companies to support the current share price.

What's more, the A share market is a money market, and it is a speculation market. All kinds of illegal activities are prevalent in the A share market, and the interests of investors are basically unprotected. How can such a market produce "healthy cows"? In addition, whether it is "healthy cattle" or "slow bull" or bull market, this is obviously not the main task of the current regulatory authorities.

As the chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, Liu Shiyu can maintain the stability of the stock market. On this basis, new shares can be issued on a large scale, and they can also help the poor by IPO. They can also carry out debt to equity swap, so that the stock market can turn rubbish into a treasure, and this is a great achievement.

So, as Liu Shiyu, there is no incentive to increase the stock market bubble.

What's more, Premier Li Keqiang has made clear instructions: capital market must prevent "blowout" and "cliff type" changes.

In the final analysis, this is to maintain the stability of the stock market.

For the current Chinese stock market, stability is the top priority, and the bull market is at least not the main task of President Liu Shiyu.