PTA, Which Has Been Silent For A Long Time, Suddenly Surges And Surges: Who Will Win In A Changing Situation?

With the price rising, the intervention of short hedge funds in the industry is also very active, and even a relatively large number of funds have exceeded.

The industry "old guns" and "financial upstarts" stand out.

Futures are surging.

Under the circumstances, who will win? Do not talk about heroes in terms of money.

The story of the confrontation between industrial capital and financial capital is not uncommon in the market. In 2014, Liu Zengcheng, silver run Cheng Gong, No. 5, turning PVC futures and triggering liquidation appeals.

Back in time to October 23, 2014, Liu Zengcheng, who was in urgent need of counterattack due to more than one product approaching the winding line, thought that the crude oil market had recently dropped sharply. Most of the domestic chemical products had dropped considerably. Only the PVC futures fell less, and the last straw was put on the PVC stage.

On the 23 day, the opening of the PVC futures contract was very similar to that of the 1501 main contract. Liu then added 1501 of the contract, and the PVC futures 1501 contract was down.

Liu Zengcheng's expectation is that he will make profits in the second day, but what he did not expect was that soon after the day's fall, the 1501 contract came up with a strong force that could not be overlooked. The contract began to rebound sharply after stopping for a few minutes and hit its stop loss position.

Liu Zengcheng decided to close his position, but because the liquidity of the contract was weak, he did not liquidate it as he wished, resulting in a decline in the net value of its fund products as the market fluctuated.

"Do not belittle the inactive varieties, although PVC futures are not active, but since May 25, 2009, a lot of spot businesses have been precipitated for a long time.

They have a keen judgement of the market, and have the demand for hedging and arbitrage.

Moreover, Liu added that the logic of empty PVC futures has loopholes itself, which has caught spot traders.

Opportunities. "

Wang, a person familiar with the matter, told reporters.

Mr. Wang said that the company is dominated by leading enterprises in the field of plasticization trade in China, and 5-6 other spot traders or private equity firms are tracking this market.

"These spot businesses and private placement have rich experience in futures trading. They believe that the current PVC futures have already been relative to spot discount, and the base after the 23 day limit is very rare. The decline in crude oil futures does not support such a big fall in PVC futures."

"At the present time, it will be difficult to get rid of the whole market when the funds go into the market.

There should be no big drop.

But because of the existence of the base difference, the industry will still be the main force.

The future price will see a confrontation between the two sides. Once the market is in conflict, the market will be clearer. We need to wait patiently for the arrival of a conflict.

Qian Tao said.

Liu Zengcheng's case shows that in the futures market of "dealing with all kinds of problems", in a stable operation for many years, the trading system has been very perfect, regardless of the financial background and strength, whether it can be consistent with the general trend of the fundamentals is the key to win the final victory.

As far as PTA futures are concerned, Fang Huiling pointed out that at present, the involvement of OTC funds is large, and the market competition is fierce.

However, the basic outlook and cost side do not support the continuous rise of PTA price. PTA price will fluctuate under the restriction of processing area, and the market is unlikely to have large trend market.