Pi Haizhou: Will A Shares Be Affected By The US General Election?

Generally speaking, the A share market is a market with little external influence. It is a market with its own way. It is less affected by the stock market and the peripheral stock market.

The A share market is more or less influenced by domestic policy.

The US presidential election has nothing to do with the A share market.

Therefore, even if Trump was elected, the degree to which A shares were affected is also very limited.

For this presidential election, even though unfortunately Jean Trump was elected, I think the impact of the US general election on A shares is almost the same as that of the UK's DEA European A. Investors need not be too much influenced by the US presidential election.

A shares will still go their own way, allowing Hilary and Trump to be elected president of the United States.

Today is November 8th, the day of the US presidential election.

This day not only concerns American voters, but also worries investors around the world.

In fact, with the coming of the US presidential election day, the global stock market has become unstable.

Both the US stock market and Hongkong stock market or other countries' stock markets are mostly on the decline.

This is largely related to the current public opinion of US voters in the US presidential election.

Originally, for a long time before, among the two presidential candidates of the United States, Democratic Party candidate Hilary's popularity was far ahead of Republican candidate Trump.

But with the approaching of the presidential election day in the United States, when Hilary's "girlfriends" and "mail doors" and other incidents have been exposed or recalled, Hilary's popular support rate has dropped significantly. Trump's support rate has caught up with him, and even once surpassed Hilary.

Global stock markets have become volatile.

Why does the global stock market look at the trend of the US presidential election, because Trump is an omen to the US stock market and even the global stock market, and may even be a "disaster" for stock market investors.

Because Trump was singing about the US economy and the US stock market, he thought that the US stock market was a bubble blown by the Fed.

Trump not only attacked the United States to delay the increase in interest rates to help the incumbent president Obama, but also openly supported the Democratic Party. He also openly sang the American economy and sang the US stock market. He warned investors not to buy American stocks again, and to sell stocks to avoid the crisis.

Therefore, analysts generally believe that if Trump is elected president of the United States, not only the US stock market will fall 10% to 15%, that is, the global stock market including Europe and Asia will drop 10% to 15%.

Based on this analysis, domestic investors are worried about the trend of A shares.

A shares will also be affected by the US general election.

Will the A share be affected by the US general election? To say that the A share market is totally unaffected by the US general election, this is a bit absolute.

But the impact is not positive.

This effect can be referred to the UK's Europe event.

Influence.

Before the referendum in the UK, public opinion said how bad the British influence would be, as if the global stock market would collapse because of Britain's departure from Europe.

But the actual impact is nothing more than that.

Especially the impact on China's stock market is very limited.

After the referendum came out, the index fell by dozens of points and then closed up, showing a V trend.

Therefore, the impact of the UK off Europe event on A shares is to provide a chance to wash the dishes in the market.

According to the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange, as of October 27th this year, the total number of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) has been approved by US $84 billion 438 million, and the total amount of qualified foreign institutional investors (RQFII) has been approved by RMB 514 billion 988 million yuan.

The latter's investment in the stock market is very limited and can be ignored.

The proportion of QFII investing in the stock market is also very small. In the two quarter of this year, the market value of QFII investment A shares is only 109 billion 67 million yuan, which is negligible compared with the current stock market value of 50 trillion yuan in the A share market.

Moreover, at present, the A share index is near 3100, relative to the 6124 highest points of the A share index and the 5178 highest point of last year's bull market. The index is still in a relatively low position, but only in the position of "halfway up the hill".

So there is not much room for callbacks in A shares, especially last year.

During the period, the policy of rescuing the market was at the 2850 point, which also made it difficult for A shares to fall too much.

This is not comparable to the fact that the US stock market is still at a historical high.

Therefore, the US can drop by 15%, and the A share market will drop by 1.5%.

More importantly, the current A share market has a hole in the sky.

In fact, the A share market is generally active and the market sentiment is much higher than that of the UK.

, all along the way, state owned enterprises reform, supply side reform, stock raising concept stocks, high delivery and conversion expectations, and other stocks, stir up.

And Shenzhen Hong Kong pass is about to open, and the pension market is in sight.

It can be said that the current A share market has themes and themes, and it should be good and profitable.

Therefore, even if the power of A shares to move up sharply is insufficient, the downside space will be blocked.

Structural market can be said one after another.

It can be said that the current A share market is not lonely, and there is no lack of speculation.

Therefore, the A share market will not look at the face of the US presidential election.

Hilary was elected president of the United States, Trump was elected president of the United States, A share market or China's A share market, or will go on its own track of operation.