Can You Make Clear The Meaning Of Ma Yun'S "Planned Economy"?

In his speech at the 30th anniversary congress of the Zhejiang chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, Ma Yun said that most of the titles were "Ma Yun: in the future, the planned economy will be bigger and bigger." but it did not explain what the meaning of "planned economy" in Ma Yun's mouth was. What's more, several articles suggested that "the planned economy has no good end" by analyzing the reasons for the disintegration of the former Soviet Union.

However, don't worry.

It is not too late to refute the true meaning of "the planned economy will grow bigger in the future".

Ma Yun's speech in the speech is like this: because of data acquisition, the invisible hand of a national market may be discovered by us.

Before X light and CT were found, Chinese medicine was unable to open the stomach to see it. So the pulse, look, smell, ask and cut of TCM formed a unique command system, but after the X light and CT machine came out, there was a great change.

I believe that in the data age, we have clear grasp of the economic data of the country and the world, just like we have a X optical machine and CT machine. After entering the data age, please remember that data is the judgment of the future.

Information IT is a summary of yesterday's summary, and data is a judgement and anticipation for the future.

We must learn to cure the disease before it is healed.

Two different planned economies

From the above analysis, the "new planned economy" based on big data is really good.

It is essentially different from the Soviet style planned economy.

The property right system will not change and will not return to "public ownership".

The main body of the market is free to choose jobs instead of being allocated.

The main body of the plan is an enterprise adopting artificial intelligence rather than a government official who considers himself "omniscient and omnipotent".

The role of the plan is mainly reflected in the control of production and supply chain, and the pricing of products and services is done by the market, not by the government.

The participants in the economy are completely voluntary rather than coercive, and participants are self organizing and decentralized, without needing a leader to decide what each person is doing.

The plan can only be carried out in a relatively small scope, such as an enterprise, an industry or an industrial chain. The economic activities across the country and across the industry can not be planned, and the economic activities between countries can not be planned.

"New planned economy" can make use of big data technology, seek more precise market positioning, reduce information costs, more thorough market information, and more intensive counterpart production, can reduce the waste of "inferior" and increase the proportion of "winning" substantially.

Having made clear these essential differences and looking back at Mr Ma's "in the future, the planned economy will be bigger and bigger", the supporters of the free market need not be afraid. At the same time, the supporters of the planned economy need not be excited.

This is not Ma Yun's first time to "sing a good plan economy". As early as September 2015, when he accepted an interview with Taiwan's "Central Daily", Ma Yun also said that "the planned economy in 2030 will become a better system."

In fact, Ma Yun is not the first person to link big data with the planned economy. The key word "planned economy, big data" search on Baidu will find that as early as 2013 and 2014, many people were discussing whether "big data can save the planned economy".

According to Hayek's point of view of "Fatal Conceit", the fundamental reason why the planned economy is not feasible in practice is that there is no economic information that a "omniscient" person can master enough to make scientific decisions (central plan).

As a result, the "spontaneous order" formed by different market participants in "decentralized decision-making" has become the only feasible economic operation mechanism.

However, under the "decentralized decision making" in the market economy, what we see is that supply and demand are often mismatched because of asymmetric information between supply and demand. As a result, the society always produces a lot of products that are more than actual needs, resulting in huge waste of resources.

However, in the coming era of big data, the problem of "unable to get enough decision information" seems to be solved by means of technology. Therefore, many people are rekindled by the illusion of a planned economy that avoids waste through "fixed production".

However, no matter how big data and artificial intelligence are developed, it will never help us return to the centralised planned economy of the Soviet Union.

The main reasons are as follows:

1, big data is actually "ex post Zhu Geliang". If it sums up the past needs of consumers, it is good, but the planned economy needs to plan for future production and consumption.

It is difficult to succeed in dealing with uncertain future needs based on past information.

Even super AI can not use unknown parameters to calculate the future.

Therefore, even with the big data and artificial intelligence, we still can not find the "omniscient" person to make the main body of the plan.

2, the property right of big data is scattered, it is held in the hands of many different market players, and every market main body does not want the data in their hands to be easily used by others. The central government can not grasp all the data, so the central plan is impossible.

3, if a country prohibits the collection and analysis of economic data from governments other than the government, stipulates that economic data are state secrets. In this way, the omniscient central government can adjust the economy according to data, so it should be effective.

But the question is, who would want to live in such a country?

Now that we can not go back to the Soviet style planned economy, we will enter a new planned economy era under the influence of big data and artificial intelligence.

The new planned economy is a concept put forward by American scholar Andy Pollack and British scholar Stephen Botington in the 70s of last century.

Its specific meaning is: through information technology to collect and process production information and consumption information, we plan and guide the production, sale, distribution and consumption of products under the flexible logistics distribution system.

One of the most important reasons for the failure of the planned economy in the past is to consider the problem only from the supply side. The consumer side has no voice and loses the value discovery function of the product. For a long time, the price of the product will deviate too far from the value and cause huge losses.

In the era of "new planned economy", all production will be carried out according to the demand of consumption, and every product knows who its consumers are before production, and knows what the standard of this product is.

The very hot "C2B" mode is the main form of realization of the new planned economy.

The so-called "C2B" is the consumer's request, and the manufacturer designs consumer goods and equipment accordingly.

"Consumer preferences and needs portrait based on consumer data force into many aspects of the supply side of product design, R & D, production, supply chain, marketing and so on, which is the essence of C2B."

Pan Yonghua, Secretary General of the center for data economy research, wrote in an article.

The main features of C2B mode are: at the front end, they provide relatively standardized modules for consumers' combination, or attract consumers to participate in the design and production links; internally, they enhance organizational capabilities and serve the mass consumers in a personalized way; at the back end, they actively adjust the supply chain to make them more flexible.

Li Bin, director of the 31 heavy machine (Shanghai Nanpu) Limited and director of the general manager's office, gave an example. In the past, because it was impossible to make a mold with one pair of feet, it could not produce shoes according to everyone's feet, but intelligent manufacturing solved this problem.

"You see a brand and style of shoes, as long as you use your mobile phone to send a photo of your feet to the brand of the enterprise, the enterprise can use technical means to data your feet, and put these data into the shoe manufacturing system, and the system can give you a shoe that only fits you through a flexible production system."

In the traditional mode of production, the producer has the final say, and consumers only need to decide whether to buy or not to buy according to their own needs.

But C2B has caused a great liberation of "consumption relationship". The future consumption relationship is: what consumers need, what producers have to produce, this is a reverse production process.

Moreover, the competition between manufacturers is no longer price, but who can be the first to receive the needs of consumers, and to achieve the precise degree of consumer demand.

At this point, there will be no inventory and no vicious competition. The cost of society will be greatly reduced.

The supply relationship of the whole society will be destroyed and rebuilt.

This is also the essence of the industry 4. Industry 4 will realize the interconnection of factories, consumers, products and information data in the future, and ultimately realize the interconnection of all things, so as to reconstruct the production mode of the whole society.

That is, the use of the Internet of things, big data and mobile Internet means that the factory can achieve customized production (on-demand production), thereby implementing the integration from consumer demand - factory manufacturing - follow-up services.

Compared with the free competitive market economy, the biggest benefit of the new planned economy is that consumers' demand is the first and production is exactly matched. Therefore, there will be no problem of inventory (overproduction).

The following two examples are very clear:

1, under the current market economy, farmers generally prefer to follow suit when they choose crops. What kinds of crops will be planted last year will be planted. What crops will be planted this year? The crops that will be planted following the trend will fall in price. The price of crops that will not grow will be soaring.

Such a free market is actually a waste of money, and it is also easy to produce speculation like "garlic you are ruthless", which is ultimately victimized by consumers and farmers.

2, and the future "new planned economy" will collect the market demand of all the crops in the country (such as Taobao Tmall), so as to conduct general statistics through the information collection, so as to guide the farmers to carry out the planting plan. After the national comparison of planting plans, we find that there are too many people planted in some crops, so we can guide some people to modify the planting plan, and ultimately achieve the purpose of the counterpart market demand of the planting plan, so as to reduce the blindness and waste of the market by relying on big data and information technology.

In the industrial market, inventory and pressure is a black hole that engulf the profits of manufacturers, and it is also a stumbling block for commodity prices to decline.

Pressure and inventory are natural enemies of profits. The retail price of Chinese retail goods is often 5 times the cost. The retail price of spectacles, jewellery and luxury goods is often several times higher than that of the cost. Such a huge price difference is caused by the level of inventory, the increase in the pressure on goods and the high cost of terminal retail.

If we can achieve zero inventory through the new planned economy, consumers will not have to pay for the inventory and waste of the manufacturers, so the price will probably drop substantially.

The new planned economy will also push production and consumption towards ecological direction.

As mentioned above, Li Bin said that the function of smart phones is only less than 10% among many consumers. This is because the current mobile phone can only be produced in batches, and the customization of consumers is not supported by technology.

These useless functions almost exist in all products. These useless functions not only consume a lot of resources while producing, but also consume huge energy and manpower, and produce huge quantities of industrial wastes at the same time, resulting in environmental pollution and ecological damage.

"In the era of industrial 4, people can get the personality characteristics of each consumer using big data, and then produce a unique product for them.

Imagine that more than half of the functions will be removed. Will our energy saving and emission reduction be as big as it is now? Do we still need to spend a lot of money on APEC blue? "Li Bin sighed.

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