Foreign Trade In The Past And Welcome The New: Cautiously Optimistic In The "Return To Stability".

According to the reporter, "stability is good" has become the key word of China's foreign trade development. Once, the "good start" in 2016 made the market more confident in the development of foreign trade in that year, but the subsequent slide made the market rationally realize that in the context of the continuing downturn in international demand, foreign trade is hard to say.

So far, China's foreign trade has gone through three consecutive years of growth rate is not up to standard, to two consecutive years without goals, and the situation of foreign trade is more severe and complex. It is probably the highest goal of foreign trade development to get rid of speed complex and stabilize better.

Trump came to power or brought more serious trade protectionism. The European general election will lay the foreshadowing for the international situation in 2017, and the continuing grim external situation will also bring pressure on the development of foreign trade in the new year. However, behind the complicated and grim background, what is stabilizing back to good is the continuous optimization of the trade structure and the continuous accumulation of new kinetic energy. In 2017, the trend of foreign trade between pressure and new kinetic energy is worth looking forward to.

It has been a great expectation for 2016 to realize that foreign trade has stabilized. In the eyes of many people in the industry, this year's overall foreign trade performance has also been handed in a qualified answer. Yang Changyong, deputy director of the comprehensive research office of the national development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with reporters that last year's foreign trade situation was in line with the requirements for the stable foreign trade in the beginning of last year.

"First, the overall growth of foreign trade is shrinking last year, but the decline is narrowing. It has achieved positive growth in a single month. Second, while the total volume is stabilizing, the foreign trade structure is constantly optimized, and the strategic thinking of steady growth and structural adjustment has been maintained." Yang Changyong said.

It is also a summary of the foreign trade situation in 2016. Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, pointed out at the 2016 national business conference recently held that "a steady return to good" is the main keynote of the whole year. Among them, the "steady" performance in the decline continued to narrow, from the first quarter, imports and exports fell 7.2%, to the two quarter of 0.2%, and then to the three quarter growth of 1.1%, the trend of foreign trade stabilized quarterly.

"To be good" is manifested in structural optimization. Data show that in the first 11 months, the export of large complete sets of equipment increased by more than 5%; private enterprises accounted for 46.1% of the total exports, and increased by 1.4 percentage points; the proportion of general trade and processing trade increased by 0.9 and 1 percentage points respectively. The proportion of trade in services accounted for 18% of total foreign trade and increased by 2.3 percentage points.

Customs data show that the first three quarters of 2016, China's foreign trade import and export value of 17 trillion and 530 billion yuan, down 1.9% compared to the same period, the downward pressure on foreign trade has been relatively large. But on the whole, foreign trade shows a steady trend in the following quarter, and the leading index has improved for 3 consecutive months, showing positive changes in upgrading the quality and efficiency of foreign trade.

Yang Changyong believes that the reason why the foreign trade in 2016 has been able to achieve a sharp decline in the rate of decline and structural optimization is mainly from the results of the steady growth of domestic and foreign trade and the policy effect of structural adjustment.

"From the point of view of the calculation, external demand plays a eighty percent role in the fluctuation of foreign trade. From 2016, the external demand environment is still cautious. According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate is 3.1%, the lowest in 2010. At the same time, the external trade protection measures have not been reduced, and the trade barriers against China are increasing. external environment Without changing the premise, stabilizing and improving is the result of the steady growth of internal policies and measures, and the steady growth of foreign trade. Yang Changyong said.

For many enterprises, the foreign trade in 2016 is not good, and the prospect for 2017 is worth looking forward to.

"In 2016, our foreign trade development is indeed rather difficult." Tang Chunfang, deputy general manager of Shanghai Textile Group Co., told reporters that "under the policy of structural adjustment and steady growth, we achieved a small increase in exports and a slight increase in imports."

In fact, there are many more difficult enterprises than Shanghai textile group. Data show that in the first 11 months of 2016, the total value of China's imports and exports was 21 trillion and 830 billion yuan, down 1.2% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 12 trillion and 470 billion yuan, down 1.8%; imports 9 trillion and 360 billion yuan, down 0.3%.

As an important industry of China's exports, the textile industry first felt the "cold current" of exports. Chen Yijin, director of Shaoxing's Textile Co., Ltd., told reporters that the slowdown in domestic economic growth and foreign economic downturn had a direct impact on the sales of textile fabrics.

"The RMB exchange rate fluctuates more sharply this year, which makes textile enterprises dare not rush to receive large bills and long bills to avoid losses. The external economic environment is poor, and foreign purchasing power is reduced. textile industry The export situation is getting worse. Chen Yijin said.

Tang Chunfang is also a bitter water - the international "black swan" incident continues to occur, coupled with exchange rate fluctuations, too many uncertainties affect the development of foreign trade.

However, the grim complexity does not mean that foreign trade development is lifeless, and some enterprises export still shows an inverse trend.

Chongqing run Tong Holdings Limited achieved a small increase of 20% in 2016. In this regard, the president of Chongqing run Technology Co., Ltd. said, "the key to the growth of the counter trend is that we continue to expand our share in the dominant market and achieve better sales results."

"The key to enhancing international competitiveness lies in the competitiveness of the product itself, the productivity of the enterprise itself and the spanformation of the sales network," he told reporters.

In fact, the reporter found in the interview that the grim situation of foreign trade gave birth to the polarization of enterprises. Some enterprises are moving towards the high-end manufacturing industry with design and R & D capability, and the order volume will not decrease or increase. But the middle enterprises in the industry, especially the small and medium-sized enterprises, are facing the decline of order volume, and the increase of domestic factor costs, and profits are declining. In 2017, even under the trend of good stability, this situation may also intensify.

Faced with the difficult trend of foreign trade in the new year, Yang Changyong still needs to be cautious and optimistic.

"However, there are still many uncertainties in the external environment. It is not easy to say how much the external demand needs to be recovered." Yang Changyong said frankly. The international community will also face many downward pressure on the economy, including Trump's trade protection after taking office, the political uncertainty brought by the German and French elections, and the devaluation pressure brought by the accelerated pace of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

In this regard, Xiang Jin also said: "the global economic growth is weak in the next two years. economic situation Continued deterioration, the decline in oil prices, resulting in a decline in purchasing power in many areas, the continued strength of the US dollar in the money market, resulting in a decline in local currencies in some areas, a sharp increase in import costs, and even some foreign exchange controls in some countries such as Argentina and Brazil. Under such circumstances, trade protectionism and trade barriers will intensify. Our main export is the United States, and the new policies of the new US presidents, such as tariff changes, will be the key to the export situation next year.

According to Xiang Jin, the next economic situation may continue to deteriorate. The market share of the market is very serious. The difference between the economy and the high-end products will continue to widen. Insisting on differentiated products and high-end market will be the way to survive.

Yang Changyong pointed out that next should continue to implement the idea of stabilizing to the good, starting from two aspects of steady growth and structural adjustment, in which the structural adjustment is in a more important position. "We should actively cultivate new industrial advantages, but this is not completed in one or two years. This is closely related to industrial policies. From the policy level, we should continue to cultivate new advantages for foreign trade restructuring and create a relaxed environment next year."

From a high-level perspective, continuing to adhere to steady growth and structural adjustment is the theme of the new year. Gao Hucheng has just said recently that in 2017, he must stick to the general keynote of steady progress in business work, highlight the main line of structural reform of supply side, and highlight the guiding principle of "one belt and one road" construction, and highlight the reform of key areas.

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