Can China'S Stock Market Withstand The "Money Shortage"?

The money shortage comes again. The Shanghai interbank offered rate continued to rise, and the overnight lending rate reached 2.65% today; The discount rate of banks continues to rise. It is said that the discount rate of large banks (annualized) has reached 6%, and that of small banks has reached 7%, and it is possible to continue to rise; Moreover, it is said that there has been a default in interbank lending.

We have seen the "money shortage" in June 2013, when the stock market plummeted 480 points to 1849 points. At that time, the degree of money shortage was much more serious than that at present. At that time, the highest overnight dismantling interest rate exceeded 10%, the discount rate exceeded 8%, the small business exceeded 10%, and the private discount exceeded 15%. The current money shortage has not reached the level of that time.

If the money shortage in June 2013 is Central Bank How did this "anti-terrorism exercise" come into being?

1. The monetary policy in 2017 was "prudent and neutral", that is, tight. Since December 2016, the central bank has continued to tighten money and raise market interest rates; Although there is a purpose to cope with the devaluation of RMB, the tightening trend has not changed. In this context, tight money is inevitable.

2. At the end of the first quarter, the Central Bank decided to include the off balance sheet financial management business of commercial banks in the balance sheet at the end of last year, that is, in the broad credit MPA assessment. Because of the previous large base, commercial banks need to digest the credit proportion of off balance sheet business, which will inevitably lead to a shortage of funds.

3. Zhongdeng Company raised the rating of the pledged bonds to AAA from April 7, in other words, AA bonds are no longer allowed to be pledged; Although "new and old", it will also have an impact on capital; It is also unknown whether this will lead to a shortage of funds in the bond market again.

4. If we find another reason, it will be shifted to the US dollar. On March 16, the US dollar raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The People's Bank of China immediately responded by raising SLF and MLF (short-term and medium-term lending facilities) interest rates by 10 basis points, which is equivalent to a disguised interest rate increase, that is, a soft interest rate increase.

5. Tightening the money bag may have something to do with controlling the rapid rise of house prices; But everyone on earth knows that Yang Ma doesn't really want to suppress housing prices, she just scares them. If housing prices really fall, who is in a hurry knows.

6. The purchase of Everbright's 30 billion convertible bonds has frozen the funds of 400 billion yuan. Some people think that this is also the reason for the shortage of funds, but Jun Canghai believes that this is not the root, but only one of the reasons for piling up.

All these have caused the current Market funds Tight. In the medium and long term, China's tight monetary policy should be normal, rather than a short-term phenomenon. But whether it can evolve into a "money shortage" at the level of June 2013 depends on how the central bank acts, because it is the tap of the capital pool.

The People's Bank of China is putting money into the market, but the effort is modest. Yesterday, the net investment of 40 billion yuan was not enough to quench thirst, but it is a gesture because the People's Bank of China did not put money into the market for 17 days. However, we believe that once the capital level deteriorates, the central bank will still help, but we don't know how much patience the central bank has. In this way, can China's stock market withstand the "money shortage"?

1. It depends on when the situation of "money shortage" lasts and how tight money develops. If the capital level continues to deteriorate, the stock market may not be able to withstand it in the short term.

2. It depends on when the central bank will take action. The earlier the action is taken, the more pressure will be relieved, and the later the action is taken equity market The higher the pressure.

3. It depends on the impact of the European and American stock markets. Although the European and American stock markets did not fall immediately after the US dollar interest rate hike, the European and American stock markets began to fall last night. If they continue to weaken, it will certainly have an impact on the Asia Pacific and Chinese stock markets.

4. It depends on whether the national team plays the role of Dong Cunrui. If they withdraw quietly, the stock market will collapse in the short term. If they carry it with their lives, they may fight and withdraw at the same time. As long as the defense is orderly, they will not panic.

The decline since December last year was caused by the credit default in the bond market, and in the final analysis, it was also caused by the shortage of funds; At that time, from a technical point of view, the stock market must continue to decline, and 2900 may not be able to bear it; However, on January 16, the national team stepped out to rescue the market, bringing the market back above 3200.

Can you handle it this time? Do you want to carry it or retreat for thirty miles to set up camp? All are unknowns. But we need to understand one truth: the central bank may tighten the currency or belong to the future normal. The national team is carrying the stock market in the opposite direction to the central bank, and whose strength is greater needs to see their own courage and strength.

To sum up, if the situation of money shortage cannot be alleviated as soon as possible, the stock market is prone to fall but difficult to rise. Throughout the year, it is better to have a more stable investment strategy. Why should we be fearless and radical when our parents are steady? At present, it is difficult to consider the stock market with technology because the national team has confused technology. The market is at a crossroads. Take time to talk with you about your views, and let's throw bricks.

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