What New Developments Will The A Share Market Usher In In April?

Compared with the Shanghai Composite Index in February, the market has been in a high concussion in March, and the lowest point of the 3193.16 point is low to the top of 3283.24.

From a hot point of view, along the way, liquor and other blue chips have been concerned about the capital.

At the moment, March will soon be over. As the first quarter of the second quarter, what kind of new situation will the A share market usher in in April? Where will the market trend go in the new month? Which sectors will become the next most noteworthy target? Should the investment strategy grow or prevent? For this reason, analysts from five brokerages have published their views.

1 Wang Jun, an analyst with Huachang securities.

In the view of Wang Jun, an analyst at Huachang securities, the risk of market cycle building is controllable, and the structure should be grasped in the adjustment of shocks.

"From the end of 2015 to 2016, the global economic cycle has gone through a period of turbulence. The global economy will enter the complex stage of this short cycle in 2017. The 2 quarter is a time window. Taking account of the global financial risks and policy orientation, and considering the effects of these factors on the economic cycle, we can identify that this roof is relatively smooth and controllable risk, and it is also an important window period for China to control asset price bubbles and promote reform.

As a result, the trend of A share will show a pattern of shock adjustment in the 2 quarter, but with a relatively limited pattern, the significance of the value of guarding will be highlighted in structure.

Wang Jun also pointed out that the "PMI top down + real interest rate upward" macro environment has great effect on the recovery and valuation of the large consumption sector, and the current macro environment is close to this ideal state.

"Nearly ten years, from October 2009 to June 2011, from October 2013 to March 2014 two interval and current Acacia, and the above two periods of major consumer sector profits, valuations, fund positions have been raised, we are confident that we will continue to hold the consumer sector."

From the point of view of investment, Wang Jun pointed out that following the theme investment, we should carry out the core thinking of "basing ourselves on defense, value as king and focusing on certainty", and follow three main lines: 1, value is king, concern about the reform of state-owned enterprises - reinventing the investment return mechanism, and recommend the central business and the advanced leader of the local high dividends.

Core catalytic factors include A share in MSCI, state-owned enterprise reform, ETF fund pilot and so on.

2, consumer upgrade 2, the rise of high-end, it is recommended to focus on apple, new energy vehicles and to the core components of IOE/ localization theme.

Core catalytic factors include apple apple Park conference April, etc. 3, along the way, pay attention to the theme of the Big Dipper.

Following the "central leading enterprise - the Western Corridor - Maritime Silk Road - space Beidou" rule, we can now focus on the 2018 Beidou theme of serving the whole area.

2 Shen Wan Hongyuan analyst Wang Sheng:

In Shen Wan Hongyuan analyst Wang Sheng, since the beginning of 2017, the A share market's earning effect is not weak, and the two quarter of this year is the low point of lifting the ban throughout the whole year, and the demand side of market capital has eased up.

Hong Kong stocks have gone through two climaxes, and overseas funds are expected to become long-term marginal increments. At present, the QFI-I+RQFII quota has reached 11500 billion yuan. In 2016, the RQFII policy was further relaxed, facilitating the entry of foreign capital into A shares.

The procedure for entering A shares is also being simplified.

At the same time, the real estate post cyclical effect has been verified in many directions. In 2017, the "housing seesaw" is expected to play a role.

In terms of insurance, universal insurance supervision has achieved initial success. The original insurance supports premium expansion, and small and medium-sized banks have become an important entity for issuing certificates of deposit.

Wang Sheng believes that the 2017 A share spring market looks like 2012 (expected economic recovery) + continuation of 2016 (some industry characteristics continued), but 2017's "decisive moment" has not yet appeared.

"At present, the adjustment of public funds in the position of high valuation and GEM may not be over yet, but in the second half of 2017, growth stocks may come back after clearing."

Wang Sheng said that the valuation of growth stocks has been in the upper limit of a reasonable interval, so we need to wait patiently for the main contradiction to switch.

On the basis of the above trend, Wang Sheng believes that the consumer product allocation is at that time: "first, the macroeconomic warming will provide support for the consumer sector's expected earnings increase in 2017, and secondly, the micro management of enterprises will also provide support for the consumer sector's 2017 earnings forecast increase."

In addition, China has shifted from "quantity consumption stage" to "brand consumption stage".

Wang Sheng also pointed out that "one belt and one road" has the trend of basic trend. Chinese enterprises will open up medium and long term growth space when they go out. It is estimated that listed construction enterprises will get more than 650 billion yuan orders in the next five years, which is 2 times of overseas income in 2015.

At the same time, the reform of central enterprises will grasp the "one point two line". It is estimated that the investment opportunities of SOE reform in 2017 will focus on "one point" - the pilot priority, and the "two lines" - the mixed pformation (the most important line is the profit margin promotion and the overall listing) and the state-owned capital investment company (see industry integration and capital operation).

In regard to the reform of local state-owned enterprises, we should pay close attention to Shanxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other provinces with positive reforms and poor expectations, as well as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Zhejiang, which are most advanced and have the best assets.

In addition, Wang Sheng also pointed out that the military industry will enter the fast lane in 2017, and suggests focusing on the construction of Characteristic Towns in Inner Mongolia 70th anniversary Daqing and the two trillion fund investment space that is expected to open.

3 Orient Securities strategist Xue Jun:

At present, the capital market is a cloud.

In the bleak background of the peripheral stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index has begun to adjust, but in the adjustment, it is full of hope.

First of all, A shares are included in MSCI's expectation.

MSCI confirmed in March 23rd that it was seeking advice on China's A share, Argentina and Nigeria stock market disposal plans. MSCI is seeking feedback from three participants on the market and will announce its decision in June.

Secondly, the current stage of China's economic stabilization has been basically confirmed, whether macro level data or micro data have shown significant improvement.

Better fundamentals will help stabilize A shares.

At present, the Shanghai composite index is in the position of breaking through the previous high point.

How will A shares be interpreted in April? Xue Jun, an Orient Securities strategist, believes that the upward trend in the Shanghai stock index will not change.

Xue Jun said that April is the most important month of the whole year, or the key point of the overall breakthrough of the market as the 2014 -2015 rise will support the April and May of 2017, and the market will begin to adjust at around 3150.

From the full year of this year, the 2 quarter will have a better time window.

From the risk point of view, Xue Jun believes that the market may be callback, but there is no systemic risk of falling.

Because the pace of market growth is slow but continuous, the gradual improvement of the bottom plays a positive role in the overall market activity.

From the rebound interval, Xue Jun believes that the Shanghai Composite Index's mid-term rebound point is between 3379 and 3509.

Judging by the strength of the Shanghai Composite Index, Xue Jun believes that small and medium enterprises will also rebound.

For investment opportunities, the proposal is subject to the medium-term trend and balanced allocation.

Mainly.

In terms of industry selection, balanced allocation may be the best choice in the general trend and short-term fluctuations.

From the perspective of technology analysis, steel, automobile, utilities and pportation plates will have a better performance.

4 Shanghai securities analyst Tu Jun:

In Shanghai securities analyst Tu Jun, the A stock market in the two quarter of this year there is exponential adjustment pressure, from the next investment strategy, it is recommended to buy hold industry leader, new and reform, should be short.

Tu Jun said that in the two quarter, the market driven by the recovery of performance was a definite event than the first quarter, and there was exponential pressure of adjustment.

From the upstream - "three high" and PPI perspective, we need to be cautious about the prices of commodities and raw materials.

"We expect that the proportion of blue chips will fall in the market over the allocation period. In the process of style balance, some endogenetic" hard growth stocks "with small and medium-sized PEG less than 1 have a more definite valuation repair opportunity.

Tu Jun pointed out that in the middle reaches of the industry after the "spring restlessness", the overall probability rate was adjusted.

However, there still exist definite opportunities in the intersection of the leading industry and the sustainability of infrastructure needs, which are benefited from the upgrading of the industry concentration.

Such as construction machinery, marine, automobile and so on.

And in the two or three quarter of CPI's view is relatively strong and stable judgement, the upstream price increases to the terminal pmission process, the downstream part of the concentration and bargaining power to enhance the (consumer) industry market performance positive reaction, will continue in the two quarter.

Such as household appliances, furniture, brand Chinese medicine, food and beverages, etc.

In the aspect of "emerging + reform", Tu Jun suggested that we should look at the long and short operation and make a sort of operation: the integration development of AI, 5G and the Internet of things, and the development of "one way to mix" (civil military integration) to the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (non electric industry VOCS environmental governance).

5 Tianfeng securities Strategy Analyst Xu Biao:

Recently, there are two major events in the market. One is the phenomenon of "money shortage" in the interbank market. The two is that domestic iron ore and rebar futures prices have plummeted.

However, the impact of this "money shortage" on the A share market is relatively limited.

In addition, a point worthy of our attention is that MSCI officially released the A share into the MSCI advisory report. The market expects that the probability of A shares incorporated into MSCI in 2017 will significantly increase, which will play a positive role in A shares.

Tianfeng securities strategist Xu Biao pointed out that the A shares were included in the MSCI incident. The core issues included: first, the number of suspension companies returned to the pre disaster level, but still high in the world; second, the introduction of a new mechanism based on Shanghai Hong Kong Tong and Shenzhen Hong Kong to replace the previous "QFI-I/RQFII", which is equivalent to eliminating the monthly redemption scale; thirdly, the financial assets involved in A shares must be approved by the exchange system; MSCI is communicating with the China stock exchange; fourth, the A share's weight in MSCI China has decreased from 3.7% to 1.7%, and the weight of MSCI in emerging markets has dropped from 1% to 0.5%.

For the market trend, Xu Biao, a strategist at Tianfeng securities, believes that in April, looking back on the situation this year, and at the level of demand, it is impossible to falsify or prove the truth. Risk preference, such as capital and policy, has become the core factor affecting the A share in the concussion market.

The economic data released in 1-2 and the high frequency data in early March show that the demand level is still entangled, and the final exam is postponed.

Prior to that, risk appetite continued to dominate the market. With the end of the most difficult time at the end of 3 and the expectation of A shares joining MSCI, risk appetite shifted from being suppressed to repair in April, boosting the market to continue to rebound.

In the medium term, the fundamentals of the economy should play a key role, and this will take time to unveil, perhaps at some point in the two quarter.

In terms of allocation, Xu Biao suggested that we should focus on three sectors: the first is the national defense industry, and the logic is the catalytic pformation of state-owned enterprises, which is the strategic layout of the whole year; the second is the banks, and the dividend rate is high, which may become a serious factor in the market concern in the coming period, and the plate PB is very low, and the security is relatively high. The third is electricity. The opportunity for this sector lies in the supply side reform, focusing on the industry's backward production capacity in 2017 and the strength of the enterprise merger and reorganization.

6 Securities analyst Li Lifeng:

MSCI, Li Lifeng, a strategist at the state securities company, will help the continuation of the spring market and boost risk appetite.

Li Lifeng believes that the spring market will continue, "gold three silver four" is worth looking forward to, in May, we need to guard against the risk of market callbacks.

Li Lifeng believes that many factors will help to enhance risk preferences. First, the recent weakness of the US dollar, the appreciation of the renminbi, and the pressure of the outflow of hot money will be greatly alleviated. Secondly, industrial products will enter the peak season after the beginning of spring, and the overall economic data will be warmer. The annual report of A shares will enter a dense period. The trend of earnings improvement of listed companies is expected to continue; the demand for real property allocation will decline, and the capital will return; the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in April and the warming of Sino US relations can be expected.

The seesaw effect of the real estate market and the A share market has a certain degree of "seesaw effect".

Under the background of the gradual recovery of the European and American economy, the further tightening of the domestic real estate control policy will not cause the market's concern about the decline of the economic cliff type. Instead, the "centralized regulation of the real estate regulation and control policy" will help to control the pressure of the housing price rising too fast, and will drive the capital stage to the stock market to a certain extent.

Standing at the current time, Li Lifeng believes that the "small spring" market is still available, and the market target is at 3300 or above.

Of course, it is also necessary to guard against the risk of the Shanghai Securities Index's callback after mid May, such as the policy of "financial leverage", the closing of the "one round" international summit, and the failure of economic recovery.

In terms of industry allocation, Li Lifeng suggested that the three ideas should be focused on "industrial policy, price increase mainstay and consumption upgrading", which correspond to automobile electronics, automotive services, magnetic materials, integrated circuits, apple industry chain, new materials, some chemicals, light industrial paper, food and medical care, steel, household appliances and so on.

In terms of the theme, Li Lifeng believes that we can focus on the "one belt and one road", the reform of state-owned enterprises, PPP, Xinjiang capital construction, sub new shares and high delivery and so on.

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