Textile And Garment Industry Weak Recovery Continues Export Demand Warmer

Textile and garment industry continued to recover weakly, and export demand rebounds. Cotton prices rose slightly.

1, the domestic retail market is getting warmer.

Weak recovery: in the first quarter of 2017, the retail sales of 50 large retail enterprises increased by 2% over the same period last year, up by 7.2pct over the same period last year. Online sales maintained a high growth rate, up 32.1% from the same period last year, an increase of 4.3pct over the same period last year.

Sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear in the first quarter increased by 6.2% over the same period last year, down by 1.0pct compared with the same period last year, and the overall trend is still adjusting.

2, the export side of foreign countries gradually recovered: the decline in textile and clothing exports narrowed in the first quarter, down 0.8% and 4.7% respectively, representing an increase of 1.4pct and 2.6pct compared with the same period last year, and overseas demand gradually recovered.

3, the upstream cotton price rose slightly: as of May 4th, the cotton price 328 index was 1.3% higher than the beginning of the year, and began to rise slightly since late April. The total amount of cotton reserves was 929 thousand tons, and the average price was 14880 yuan / ton, partially easing the pressure of cotton supply.

Electricity providers maintain high growth in related fields

The differentiation trend of each sub industry continues, and the relevant business areas of the electricity supplier maintain high growth. Men's clothing and high-end women's clothing have been gradually adjusted through years of adjustment.

1, cross-border

And the electricity supplier ecological field: the cross-border electricity supplier industry has great potential for space, the acceleration of the capitalization of the two tier market, the marked increase of market concern and influence, the active extension of M & A in the field of ecologic services, and the expansion of ecological effective construction.

Quality leading edge cross-border, Antarctic electricity supplier performance is beautiful, the industry 17 years valuation of about 34 times, combined with the expected growth rate of the newspaper, underestimate obviously.

2, men's clothing industry: the industry entered the latter stage of adjustment, at the end of inventory digestion, the results of the adjustment of stores appear.

Leading brand seven wolves, nine Mu Wang revenue has been double digit growth since last year's fourth quarter, and sales side recovery has been established.

The sub industry has a valuation of about 22 times in 17 years, and the leading company accounts for ample monetary capital and low valuation margin.

3, high-end women's clothing: benefit consumption upgrade, since the second half of 16 showed a weak recovery trend, leading singer's women's clothing brand income in the 16 quarter of the fourth quarter of the year from the fall to increase.

Women's clothing brand epitaxy M & a active, pformation layout active, other business plate or brand and watch the overall performance of the leading company doubled.

4, the textile industry: benefiting from the depreciation of the renminbi, the gross margin space has expanded, and the first quarter has continued to grow steadily.

5, casual wear: inventory digestion and channel pformation are still underway, and industry valuation is at a low level, waiting for repair.

6, outdoor and sports: sub industry performance is lower than expected, downward trend continues, channel business is facing a certain terminal inventory pressure, around the sports concept extension layout is expected to become a new growth point.

7, the home textile industry: dull performance, optimistic about the pformation of large household business, the sustainability of recovery needs to be confirmed.

Department stores recover

From the perspective of brand channel attributes, department stores have been revived and firmly optimistic about the shopping mall mode.

1, the importance of shopping centers is becoming more and more prominent. The high-end women's clothing brand, the song and song merger and acquisition subsidiary company, aims to expand the core business circle, casual wear, men's wear leading Semir dress, and nine herdmen, etc., and actively implement the shopping center store planning.

2, department stores are recovering, and in the sub sectors such as high-end women's wear, underwear and women's shoes, department stores account for a larger increase in quarterly reports.

3, the street shops continue to bear pressure. Each brand carries out a strategy of closing stores or adjusting to the street stores. There are different stages in the adjustment of the street shops in men's wear and casual wear. It is suggested that the seven wolves should be adjusted gradually.

4, the electricity supplier channel has become the focus of strategic layout. The location of the e-commerce channel has changed from the previous inventory digestion terminal to the important growth point of sales, and the mode of independent operation, opening up online and offline collaborative effort has been put into practice.

Industry perspectives and investment proposals

We believe that the first quarter of 17 shows that the results of the industry adjustment have been gradually fulfilled, focusing on the following companies:

1, growth stocks benchmark cross-border business + Antarctic electricity providers: cross border through the rapid development of the beneficiary industry, the acquisition of excellent one electricity supplier layout of the import cross-border electricity supplier industry chain, the company's comprehensive layout of the comprehensive import and export ecosystem; Antarctic electricity supplier GMV continued high growth, the extension of mergers and acquisitions is expected to be strong.

2, men's clothing and high-end women's clothing adjust to the right place: Men's seven wolves + nine Mu Wang sales rebound, build more brands into new consumer groups.

Grace

The performance of the company has been steadily improved, and the strategy of Haute Couture has been progressively promoted through the acquisition of rich product segments.

3, high-end sportswear: compared to the single store of year-on-year, the new store has a large space, and the sports industry has become a new growth point.

4, look forward to the revival of the traditional leader: the new store performance of Hai Lan's home will be released gradually in 17 years, the double digit growth of future performance can be expected; Semir will push forward the spot mode pformation, and actively layout the shopping center channel, and the children's clothing will benefit from market concentration, and the high speed growth is expected to continue.

Links: stock analysis

Antarctic electricity supplier (002127)

New brands and new channels are spreading in full swing.

In the first quarter of 17, the brand of GMV16.96 was 54.3% yuan, an increase of 54.3% over the previous year. The growth rate of sales of three channels including Ali, Jingdong and vip.com was 47%, 61% and 115%.

The Cartier crocodile purchased by the end of July last year is the most important brand outside the Antarctic. 17, the first quarter business channel achieved GMV1.75 billion yuan, and 0.8, 0.68, and 25 million yuan were realized in Ali, Jingdong and vip.com respectively.

Compared with the Antarctic, the number of cat shops is limited by platform, and Ali and Jingdong sell quite well.

The company's forecast earnings increased by 40-78%. We expect 17-19 years EPS to be 0.33, 0.48 and 0.65 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 17 year dynamic valuation of 35XPE.

(GF Securities (15.74 +0.13%, buy) (15.96 +1.40%)

Seven wolves (002029)

Needle spinning

Continue to contribute growth

In the fourth quarter of 16, inventory was used to promote sales. In the first quarter of 17, the contribution of e-commerce to needle spinning was greater.

From the fourth quarter of 16, the company's single quarter revenue rose significantly, and net profit growth rate was positive, but there were differences in performance contribution and influencing factors.

In the fourth quarter of 16, the electricity supplier and the needle spinning continued to grow. At the same time, they increased the intensity of stock going in the peak season of sales, increased the growth rate of single quarter revenue, promoted the gross profit margin of the sales promotion under the promotion of the low gross profit margin, increased profits, benefited from the inventory conversion, and prepared the inventory price drop to reduce the operating cost, and superimposed the cost control. The total profit increased by 741% compared with the same period last year. However, because of the 15-16 year tax rate adjustment, the income tax expense and net profit increase narrowed to 7.89%.

In the first quarter of 17, the main income of the first quarter was continued to be driven by the electricity supplier and the needle spinning business. The men's clothing line business was expected to narrow down and also made some contribution. The low gross margin business increased and the gross profit rate decreased, but the cost control continued to improve and the rate of decline was higher than the gross profit margin, making the net profit growth of 25%.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoe and hat net information report.