Purchase Of Seed Cotton Market Is Hot And Cold. Textile Enterprises Purchase Cautiously

In recent years, with the rapid development of Xinjiang's cotton industry, its market influence has been increasing.

Xiaobian learned that, in order to accurately grasp the output and quality of Xinjiang's new cotton this year, in from November 5th to 11th, with the support of Zheng Shang, some investment institutions, cotton industry chain enterprises and representatives of financial institutions made an in-depth investigation of Xinjiang cotton producing areas.

Mainly through visiting farmers to calculate the cost and benefits of cotton seed, go into the cotton mill to understand the processing and sale of seed cotton, and gather cotton and cotton yarn with Xinjiang corps cotton and linen company, Kuitun New Asia industry and Trade Co., Ltd. and eight agricultural division.

Production, supply and marketing information.

Increase in unit production to increase total output

"During the cotton growth and picking this year, Xinjiang is basically in good weather, and cotton growth is the best in recent years."

In from November 5th to 11th, in the cotton production area of Xinjiang Province, many cotton growers told reporters that the number of cotton peaches and peach peaches increased this year. The time of peach maturity and boll opening was normal, which made Xinjiang cotton production and quality both improved. The high quality "double 29" and "double 30" grade cotton increased compared with previous years.

The reporter found cotton farmers in the main cotton producing areas do not grow much other crops, mainly because in recent years Xinjiang seed cotton purchase price has remained stable, cotton farmers have higher enthusiasm for planting cotton, Xinjiang cotton planting area fluctuate little.

This also laid a solid foundation for maintaining total cotton output stability.

In this year's cotton production area in Xinjiang weather conditions are good, cotton yield increased, the total output also increased.

"In recent years, the net income of cotton growers is net 500 to 800 yuan per mu, excluding the cost of inputs.

If there is no special situation, such as the seed cotton purchase price is too low, cotton farmers will not give up planting cotton easily.

Jiang Yin, who has been planting cotton in Xinjiang for more than 20 years, told reporters that many areas of Xinjiang this year.

The average yield per unit area is 350 kg or more.

It is understood that in order to encourage farmers to adjust crop planting structure, in the past two years, during the cotton growing season, Xinjiang has gradually introduced some measures to guide farmers to reduce cotton planting, and cotton growers in some suitable cotton areas and low yield cotton areas have been converted to other crops.

In addition, a number of cotton fields have been adjusted in some areas for the needs of urban construction.

Some areas control the use of underground water, and some cotton growers grow corn, wheat, vegetables and fruits.

These factors led to a decline in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, but these phenomena mainly occurred in non cotton main producing areas.

This year, the increase in cotton yield per unit area in Xinjiang has not only effectively compensated for the shortfall in production, but also increased the total output.

At present, Xinjiang seed cotton is basically picked.

Among them, the picking in Northern Xinjiang has ended, most of the cotton fields have been ploughed up, waiting for planting new cotton in the coming year; seed picking is ending in the southern Xinjiang, and only a few of the cotton fields are picking "tail flowers" at present.

The quality of new cotton in public inspection has been greatly improved.

This year, the double increase of cotton yield and total output in Xinjiang is a foregone conclusion, and the quality of cotton has also been greatly improved. If the price of seed cotton purchase is stable at the later stage, cotton growers will usher in a high yield and increase year.

How about the quality of cotton in Xinjiang? How about the quality of new cotton? "You can go to China's cotton notarization inspection network to see how our cotton quality is, so that the quality of most new cotton can reach the" double 29 "level.

A number of cotton ginning factory leaders told reporters.

Judging from the notarization test, the cotton lint length, lint percentage, horse value and strength of new cotton are better this year.

The lint length of lint cotton is more than 29 millimeters in many areas of Xinjiang this year. The proportion of newly cotton and cotton velvet has reached 50% or more. The proportion of "double 29" and "double 30" cotton in the past years has increased obviously, which will effectively increase the supply of high quality cotton in China.

As of November 12th, there were 859 cotton crops throughout the year.

In accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, the cotton is processed and notarized, and the inspection volume reaches 9022231 packages, totaling 2 million 41 thousand and 920 tons.

Among them, there are 759 processing enterprises in Xinjiang, notarized inspection of 8878681 packages, a total of 2 million 9 thousand and 691 tons; the mainland has 100 processing enterprises, notarization of 143550 packages, a total of 32 thousand and 230 tons.

Market buying and selling is neither warm nor cold.

After visiting a number of cotton ginning plants and cotton trading companies, reporters found that unlike last year's main market players who were picking up seed cotton and lint in Xinjiang, the purchase and sale atmosphere of Xinjiang's cotton market was relatively cold after the new cotton market was launched this year.

Zhang Daode, deputy general manager of Kuitun New Asia industry and Trade Co., Ltd., director of business, told reporters that because of the good quality of cotton in Xinjiang this year, the price of seed cotton was also relatively high. In the early stage of the listing, the purchase price of seed picked cotton in some areas reached 6.8 yuan / kg (more than 40% of the clothes, the same below), and the highest price of hand picked cotton seed was around 7.2 yuan / kg.

At present, the purchase price of seed picked cotton has dropped to 5.3 - 5.5 yuan / kg, and the purchase price of hand picked seed cotton has dropped to 5.8 - 6.2 yuan / kg.

Yin Jie, business manager of Hubei new source cotton textile company, told reporters that the sale of national cotton and cotton was postponed for one month this year. Many textile enterprises had enough raw materials, and the price of new cotton was higher after listing.

"At present, the excess capacity of cotton processing in Xinjiang is more serious. After the new cotton is listed, regardless of the price of seed cotton scale, there will be cotton ginning plants at any cost to buy cotton. Finally, cotton brokers, traders and ginning mills will rush to buy new cotton, which is pure gambling."

The head of the production of a ginning factory said the new cotton is now in production.

The price of cotton brokers, traders and ginning factories is different, and the quality requirements of new cotton are also consistent.

At the same time, although some cotton farmers are still reluctant to sell, the increase in output can compensate for the loss of prices. Many cotton farmers sell cotton more positively.

Reporters found that although there are not many orders for sale of lint cotton, many cotton ginning mills are still buying cotton seeds, and the cotton ginning plants are filled with seed cotton.

The current situation of Xinjiang's cotton market is very mild, which is quite different from that of the same period last year.

According to the reporter, the market has this situation, and the current domestic cotton supply and downstream products demand is very low.

First, the downstream demand enterprises are well stocked and the procurement demand is weak. Last year, many textile enterprises had low raw material stocks.

Two, the new cotton production increased, the quality is good, the market high quality resources supply tense situation has been improved, the large and medium-sized textile enterprises and traders wait for the price to fall, and then purchase the strong will.

Three is the current domestic and foreign cotton yarn spreads at 2000 yuan / ton, domestic yarn demand is flat, textile enterprises in order to avoid the risk of falling prices, unwilling to buy a large quantity before the mainstream price of the market.

Xinjiang cotton pportation is less than last year.

"From the analysis of Xinjiang's cotton shipments this year, since September, the external pport volume has been much less than that of the same period last year, and the demand for new cotton exports has dropped to a relatively low level in recent years."

The head of a large cotton trader's office in Xinjiang told reporters that the backlog of products from the mainland textile enterprises and the difficulty of capital turnover of some textile enterprises led to less sales of cotton in Xinjiang this year than in previous years.

However, there are still some large textile enterprises in the mainland that are in good condition and have sent many people to Xinjiang to find out the market situation many times.

Reporters learned that the current pport capacity in Xinjiang is more strained, and lint is not very smooth, but the cost of pportation is relatively high.

The year before last and last year began in mid 9, the mainland.

And large traders began to purchase actively, and the settlement price at that time was relatively high. A large number of Xinjiang cotton arrived in the mainland market by truck.

Although the pport cost in some parts of the pport area is as high as 1100 yuan / ton, it does not affect the enthusiasm of the mainland textile enterprises to buy Cotton in Xinjiang at that time.

According to the calculation of seed cotton purchase price, seed cotton percentage and cottonseed sale price in Xinjiang area, the price of lint sales is basically 15200 to 15900 yuan per ton.

It is understood that a few production costs lower cotton lint production lint, in the case of futures rise, can be carried out in the Zheng cotton futures market hedging operation, but the profit margin is not large.

Reporters in some large logistics companies and cotton storage enterprises found that the number of new cotton that can be sold to the mainland in Xinjiang is larger. The number of lint in some large cotton storehouses has been close to 140 thousand tons. Many shippers are ready to ship when the capacity tension is relieved or the opportunity exists on zhengmian disk.

There is little room for cotton seed expansion in Xinjiang.

"In recent years, the price of seed cotton purchase in Xinjiang has been stable. Xinjiang has also implemented a target price subsidy policy for cotton farmers, and the risk of price fluctuation is relatively small.

Other risks mainly come from natural disasters, but this can also be solved through the purchase of agricultural insurance.

Therefore, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has remained stable for a long time.

Jiang Yinye told reporters that in some areas this year, farmers have lost a lot of fruit trees. For example, the sales price of fragrant pear orchard in some places is less than 1 yuan / Jin. Next year, some farmers of some fruit trees are expected to replant cotton, but this number may not be large.

In the long run, due to the limited reclamation land and the shortage of water resources, the space for cotton expansion in Xinjiang is very small. Some areas that are not suitable for cotton growth will also reduce the planting area.

Under such circumstances, there will be a great relationship between the increase and decrease of cotton output in Xinjiang and the yield per unit area in the future.

Reporters learned in some textile enterprises that the annual spinning capacity of Xinjiang is about 12 million spindles, and the future production capacity will be expanded to about 20 million spindles. In the future, the number of cotton digested locally will increase continuously in Xinjiang.

In recent years, the output of cotton in the mainland has been reduced and the quality is poor. Large and medium-sized textile enterprises have been shifting to Xinjiang. Xinjiang has gradually become the center of China's cotton and cotton yarn industry, and the market influence will continue to grow.

At present, the domestic cotton production shortage pattern has been formed and will exist for a long time.

Domestic prices of seed cotton, lint and cotton yarn will be increased.

The impact of price fluctuations on related products.

In recent years, the supply gap of domestic cotton market will be mainly made up of imported cotton and national reserve cotton.

In the future, if the cost of imported cotton is rising or the number of cotton sold in the state is insufficient, especially when the number of stocks of national cotton stocks falls below the safety factor, domestic cotton prices may rise sharply.

Looking at the whole country, due to the low subsidy of cotton farmers in the mainland, and the purchase price of the seed cotton market in the mainland has not reached the psychological expectations of cotton farmers in recent years, farmers in Hebei, Shandong, Hubei, Henan and other cotton areas have little desire to grow cotton.

The survey data of the planting willingness of the relevant institutions showed that the cotton planting area in the mainland showed a continuing decline, and the total cotton output in the mainland was difficult to increase even if the growth period of cotton was smooth.

Reporters and some cotton traders and ginning factories in Shandong and Hebei learned that the cotton planting area in the mainland has declined to varying degrees every year. At the same time, due to the lack of raw materials and the sluggish sales of the lint cotton market, the environment of the cotton mill is getting worse and worse.

Under the lack of labour force in the cotton fields in the mainland, large-scale cultivation and mechanized harvesting are difficult to implement. It is estimated that more and more cotton farmers will be replanting other crops in the mainland.

Market participants believe that under the premise that Xinjiang's cotton production is difficult to grow, cotton production in the mainland will linger, and domestic cotton supply will tighten. Prices of cotton and its products may continue to rise.

In this market structure, investors use long-term perspective to find market opportunities.

It is understood that in order to stabilize market expectations and promote the orderly development of new cotton purchase and sale,

The announcement of the Ministry of Finance and other announcements that the new cotton market will not be arranged in the current year (up to the end of February next year) in principle. Next year, the sale of cotton reserves will start from March 12th, and the deadline will be tentatively scheduled for the end of August. The number of daily sales will be temporarily suspended by 30 thousand tons.

If the market price of domestic and foreign market has obviously increased rapidly for a period of time, the turnover rate of the auction sale of reserve cotton will exceed 3 days or more than 70% days a week. The number of daily listing will be increased appropriately, the time limit for the sale of the wheel will be extended, or other measures should be taken to ensure the supply of the market.

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